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2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

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Do you look at level 2 data to spot capping?
Take a look at the last 30 minutes. As the stock threatened 340 repeatedly, it was denied. Just before that, 339.5 was the level but they couldn't contain it there. SMA 50 was 341.85, so that wasn't a resistance point here. The stock hit resistance at 340 twice earlier in the day, abruptly dipping then as well. There was a stretch where it hung out above for about an hour. Once it dipped back down below 340 late in the day, shorts weren't letting it back up if they could help it.

Screen Shot 2017-07-25 at 3.04.49 PM.png
 
Take a look at the last 30 minutes. As the stock threatened 340 repeatedly, it was denied. Just before that, 339.5 was the level but they couldn't contain it there. SMA 50 was 341.85, so that wasn't a resistance point here. The stock hit resistance at 340 twice earlier in the day, abruptly dipping then as well. There was a stretch where it hung out above for about an hour. Once it dipped back down below 340 late in the day, shorts weren't letting it back up if they could help it.

View attachment 237743

I wish we had an experienced trader explain to us how and why these things happen.

Facebook's almost full day trading between $159.95 and $160.00 was pretty incredible. Clear manipulation.
 
Hail the rise of AI
When robots scan the internet
For poetry, the soul's last breath
The grasp of joy, hope, lament
So Tesla, self-aware, fully alive
But not for bliss does AI seek
To trade stock into the toilet
Take my advice, if you trade
Never post your poetry

Serious question, is there any AI currently available that can recognize a poem without cross-checking a database of published poems? Perhaps one can recognize highly structured forms like hikus and sonnets, but what about free form?
 
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For your entertainment - a list of what cars prospective owners of the model 3 owner group on facebook voted they are going to replace/not buy because of model 3:

BMW 3 series 21 votes
Leaf 15 votes
Prius 13
Volt 12
BMW i3 12
Audi A4 10
Bolt 8
VW eGolf 6
BMW 5 Series 5
Honda Civic 5
Corolla 5
S-P90D 4
Civic hybrid 4
VW Jetta 3
Lexus IS250 3
VW Passat 2
Mercedes C220 2
Mercedes C300 2
Volvo 2
Camry 2
Dodge Charger 2
Can't afford a model 3 yet 2
Infiniti M35 1
Ford Explorer 1
Mazda CX-5 1
Toyota Auris Hybrid 1
Audi A6 1
Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV 1
Lincoln MKZ 1
Lincoln Continental 1
FIAT 500e 1
FIAT 500 1
Cadillac CTS 1
Jeep Wrangler 1
Chrysler Town & Country 1
Nissan Versa 1
Nissan 350Z 1
Peugeot 307 1
Pontiac Wave/Chevy Aveo 1
VW Beetle 1
 
For your entertainment - a list of what cars prospective owners of the model 3 owner group on facebook voted they are going to replace/not buy because of model 3:

BMW 3 series 21 votes
Leaf 15 votes
Prius 13
Volt 12
BMW i3 12
Audi A4 10
Bolt 8
VW eGolf 6
BMW 5 Series 5
Honda Civic 5
Corolla 5
S-P90D 4
Civic hybrid 4
VW Jetta 3
Lexus IS250 3
VW Passat 2
Mercedes C220 2
Mercedes C300 2
Volvo 2
Camry 2
Dodge Charger 2
Can't afford a model 3 yet 2
Infiniti M35 1
Ford Explorer 1
Mazda CX-5 1
Toyota Auris Hybrid 1
Audi A6 1
Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV 1
Lincoln MKZ 1
Lincoln Continental 1
FIAT 500e 1
FIAT 500 1
Cadillac CTS 1
Jeep Wrangler 1
Chrysler Town & Country 1
Nissan Versa 1
Nissan 350Z 1
Peugeot 307 1
Pontiac Wave/Chevy Aveo 1
VW Beetle 1
Add Toyota Matrix to the list
 
For your entertainment - a list of what cars prospective owners of the model 3 owner group on facebook voted they are going to replace/not buy because of model 3:

BMW 3 series 21 votes
Leaf 15 votes
Prius 13
Volt 12
BMW i3 12
Audi A4 10
Bolt 8
VW eGolf 6
BMW 5 Series 5
Honda Civic 5
Corolla 5
S-P90D 4
Civic hybrid 4
VW Jetta 3
Lexus IS250 3
VW Passat 2
Mercedes C220 2
Mercedes C300 2
Volvo 2
Camry 2
Dodge Charger 2
Can't afford a model 3 yet 2
Infiniti M35 1
Ford Explorer 1
Mazda CX-5 1
Toyota Auris Hybrid 1
Audi A6 1
Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV 1
Lincoln MKZ 1
Lincoln Continental 1
FIAT 500e 1
FIAT 500 1
Cadillac CTS 1
Jeep Wrangler 1
Chrysler Town & Country 1
Nissan Versa 1
Nissan 350Z 1
Peugeot 307 1
Pontiac Wave/Chevy Aveo 1
VW Beetle 1
I would have gotten a Mercedes C class convertible.

Model three convertible would sure be a dream for me.
 
For your entertainment - a list of what cars prospective owners of the model 3 owner group on facebook voted they are going to replace/not buy because of model 3:

BMW 3 series 21 votes
Leaf 15 votes
Prius 13
Volt 12
BMW i3 12
Audi A4 10
Bolt 8
VW eGolf 6
BMW 5 Series 5
Honda Civic 5
Corolla 5
S-P90D 4
Civic hybrid 4
VW Jetta 3
Lexus IS250 3
VW Passat 2
Mercedes C220 2
Mercedes C300 2
Volvo 2
Camry 2
Dodge Charger 2
Can't afford a model 3 yet 2
Infiniti M35 1
Ford Explorer 1
Mazda CX-5 1
Toyota Auris Hybrid 1
Audi A6 1
Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV 1
Lincoln MKZ 1
Lincoln Continental 1
FIAT 500e 1
FIAT 500 1
Cadillac CTS 1
Jeep Wrangler 1
Chrysler Town & Country 1
Nissan Versa 1
Nissan 350Z 1
Peugeot 307 1
Pontiac Wave/Chevy Aveo 1
VW Beetle 1

Very informative.

I have recently been thinking Model 3 will ensure the death of EV (sans-Tesla) as much as Musk likes to enhance EV adoption. Why would anyone buy any other car with a plug? This list sort of proves it. Model-3 might cause all other EVs and PHEVs to fail and thus discourage any participation from existing manufacturers. Will they simply lie down and die or will they try to put up a fight? If a fight what sort of a fight?
 
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Hail the rise of AI
When robots scan the internet
For poetry, the soul's last breath
The grasp of joy, hope, lament
So Tesla, self-aware, fully alive
But not for bliss does AI seek
To trade stock into the toilet
Take my advice, if you trade
Never post your poetry
I would expect that computational linguists have developed tool for analysis of poetics. It's easy enough to check for meter and rhyme even non-literal imagery.

But certainly there are not that monitor social media to gauge sentiment, and this is turned against ordinary investors. So it is not so far fetched that silly poems could provide a read on investor sentiment. We live in an age of cyber-social warfare.
 
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Very informative.

I have recently been thinking Model 3 will ensure the death of EV (sans-Tesla) as much as Musk likes to enhance EV adoption. Why would anyone buy any other car with a plug? This list sort of proves it. Model-3 might cause all other EVs and PHEVs to fail and thus discourage any participation from existing manufacturers. Will they simply lie down and die or will they try to put up a fight? If a fight what sort of a fight?

It is a very interesting list. The Model 3 will clearly put tremendous pressure on existing compliance EVs as well as hybrids, while at the same time taking market share from cars like the BMW 3 series (top of the list) and Audi A4 (also highly ranked). Eventually, as the Model 3 and EVs become more familiar and mainstream, they will start taking more market share from cars like the Toyota Camry and Honda Accord.

Competitors will need to bring their "A" game to EVs in order to compete. But the wide variety of vehicles that are impacted will dilute the effects on any individual manufacturer, who may not see severe immediate impacts at a level that would cause them to quickly ramp up investments in EVs.

In other words, in the highly fragmented automotive market, the innovators' dilemma may be even more pronounced than in something like the traditional film industry when it was faced with digital technology. In the short to medium term most legacy manufacturers do seem inclined to continue to invest in their ICE vehicles rather than in meaningful EV competition. But in the longer run, they are not going to have a choice.
 
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