2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[jbcarioca]

Odd that TSLA was down in ore-market and instantly was up 1% when the opening bell rang. AAPL also was down pre-mkt and instantly up.

Not unprecedented but interesting.

 

[jeewee3000]

Tesla ignoring macro ... I guess the up trend is so strong that even bad macro barely slow TSLA down.

As I've learned from Papafox's daily trading charts, dropping macro can help a TSLA rally since investors pull their money out of other securities and jump on the TSLA-bandwagon. If you're reading this Papafox: thank you. I've learned a lot from you.

 

[DurandalAI]

The Leaf 2 and the Bolt are just first shots - wait until long-range BEV platforms and CCS/Chademo charging networks at 150kw+ are deployed. Both will happen, there are dozens of long-range BEVs in development (even from former "laggards" such as Toyota or FCA).
*snip*

Wrong about products? Both Hyundai (Ioniq EV refresh) and Honda (new BEV unveil in late 2017, Honda will unveil a new all-electric vehicle this autumn ) will likely have mass-market BEVs with longer range ready by the time the Model3 goes on sale internationally (apparently "late 2018", but likely slipping into 2019 given Tesla's history of missed deadlines).

Leaf 2 is a 40kWh battery with 160 miles range, and no DCFC on the lowest trim without option, limited distribution to un-interested dealers.
Bolt has no DCFC on the lowest trim without option, still has limited availability to a few states, and an un-interested dealer network.
Kia Soul EV has a range of 93 miles, DCFC *IS* standard, but dealerships outside of CARB states don't even know what the blasted thing is. (Believe me, I've called before.)
The Honda Clarity will have a range of 89 miles, and from reports will only be available in CARB states.
Hyundai Ioniq has a 124 mile range, and is available only to California residents. Supposedly there will be a 200 mile version in 2018, but if Hyundai limits it to California as they are with the current version, it's just another compliance car.
BMW i3 has a range of 114 miles, and rumors are that the battery update will be delayed until 2019. BMW actually has a dealer network that seems more interested in selling the i3, so they may actually offer up some competition.
There are plenty of currently vaporware offerings from the likes of VW, Mercedes, etc, but so far the efforts seem half-hearted or DOA after conflict within the companies drowns the EV babies at birth. I don't expect the majority of automakers to take any real action until 100,000 Model 3 vehicles have been delivered during Q2 of 2018, then they'll start to worry.

 

[froggy]

cover, cover, cover, cover....lol; I don't think we'll be seeing a squeeze, I think it will be a relatively gradual covering by shorts as they exit their position, pulling the stock up...If I'm a limited partner (LP) invested in a fund that has TSLA short, I'm calling the fund manager and probably telling him in not so kind words to get the F out of that TSLA short position. These funds that have TSLA short report to their LPs, and if the funds dont perform, they will not be able to raise another fund and the managers are out of a job. lot of pressure for the managers, i would take my losses and find something else that i can double down to make up for my TSLA losses than hope that TSLA declines.

 

[Starno]

cover, cover, cover, cover....lol; I don't think we'll be seeing a squeeze, I think it will be a relatively gradual covering by shorts as they exit their position, pulling the stock up...If I'm a limited partner (LP) invested in a fund that has TSLA short, I'm calling the fund manager and probably telling him in not so kind words to get the F out of that TSLA short position. These funds that have TSLA short report to their LPs, and if the funds dont perform, they will not be able to raise another fund and the managers are out of a job. lot of pressure for the managers, i would take my losses and find something else that i can double down to make up for my TSLA losses than hope that TSLA declines.

I'd hope so, but then why it didn't happen when Tesla was at 380's level ?

 

[JRP3]

The most rabid TSLA bear simply wants the company to succeed.

Bah, that was supposed to be bull.

I'm not sure how to make this any more clear: SeekingAlpha is a platform.

I'm not sure how to make this any more clear: It's a platform that publishes mostly negative TSLA articles, simple fact. There are also many examples of them squashing pro Tesla comments and articles and giving greater leeway to the bears.

 

[froggy]

cover....lol; I don't think we'll be seeing a squeeze, I think it will be a relatively gradual covering by shorts as they exit their position, pulling the stock up...If I'm a limited partner (LP) invested in a fund that has TSLA short, I'm calling the fund manager and probably telling him in not so kind words to get the F out of that TSLA short position. These funds that have TSLA short report to their LPs, and if the funds dont perform, they will not be able to raise another fund and the managers are out of a job. lot of pressure for the managers, i would take my losses and find something else that i can double down to make up for my TSLA losses

I'd hope so, but then why it didn't happen when Tesla was at 380's level ?

Because earnings call and debt raise hadn't happened when it was previously at 380. Earnings call + debt raise provided lots of clarity on what was previously uncertain...the information provided during the call and from the debt raise significantly derisks TSLA from a financial and execution standpoint.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

cover, cover, cover, cover....lol; I don't think we'll be seeing a squeeze, I think it will be a relatively gradual covering by shorts as they exit their position, pulling the stock up...If I'm a limited partner (LP) invested in a fund that has TSLA short, I'm calling the fund manager and probably telling him in not so kind words to get the F out of that TSLA short position. These funds that have TSLA short report to their LPs, and if the funds dont perform, they will not be able to raise another fund and the managers are out of a job. lot of pressure for the managers, i would take my losses and find something else that i can double down to make up for my TSLA losses than hope that TSLA declines.

TSLA long would be a great way to make up for losses on TSLA short.

 

[ggr]

Bounced off $370 twice now... third time it will surge past (I hope).

 

[Starno]

TSLA long would be a great way to make up for losses on TSLA short.

It definitely would. Most shorts jumped on TSLA when it was around (180-200). So right now they have about 80%-100% loss.

If they go long, they will make 1000+% gain in 3-5 years. Definitely make up for it....

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Bah, that was supposed to be bull.


I'm not sure how to make this any more clear: It's a platform that publishes mostly negative TSLA articles, simple fact. There are also many examples of them squashing pro Tesla comments and articles and giving greater leeway to the bears.

I used to think they did this on purpose, but I now think they simply were blind-sighted by the detail included in bear articles vs. lack of quality on the bull side. I complained about this to them a few times in the past, and I think one day they just published all of the bull articles that were submitted, and I almost cried at the incredibly low quality of some bull articles. There was one article that compared Tesla's negative P/E to ICE makers' low P/E to conclude Tesla was cheap...

So I think it's just a numbers game. A handful of (potentially paid) bears write very detailed articles each day, and then there's me and more recently a couple of other bulls on the other side, and SeekingAlpha editors (who are overwhelmed and do not have the finance/accounting background to see through the FUD) publish only the ones that at least resemble quality, so it ends up being more bear articles than bullish ones.

There's a distinction between lack of capacity and malicious intent. It's often difficult to tell the difference, but it's crucial to not reach unwarranted conclusions.

 

[22522]

Are we just ignoring the fact that Musk said 100% for 10k/week?

I, surprisingly, heard something else.

10K per week is achievable without touching Model X or S operations. If they shift those around a bit they can exceed 10K/week.

Elon's planning on high side margin on the 10K run rate. That is why he can say 100%.

 

[Reciprocity]

Tesla ignoring macro ... I guess the up trend is so strong that even bad macro barely slow TSLA down.

Its almost like the market thinks its a good idea to raise no dilutive money at under 5% to expand output dramatically.

 

[Drax7]

I used to think they did this on purpose, but I now think they simply were blind-sighted by the detail included in bear articles vs. lack of quality on the bull side. I complained about this to them a few times in the past, and I think one day they just published all of the bull articles that were submitted, and I almost cried at the incredibly low quality of some bull articles. There was one article that compared Tesla's negative P/E to ICE makers' low P/E to conclude Tesla was cheap...

So I think it's just a numbers game. A handful of (potentially paid) bears write very detailed articles each day, and then there's me and more recently a couple of other bulls on the other side, and SeekingAlpha editors (who are overwhelmed and do not have the finance/accounting background to see through the FUD) publish only the ones that at least resemble quality, so it ends up being more bear articles than bullish ones.

There's a distinction between lack of capacity and malicious intent. It's often difficult to tell the difference, but it's crucial to not reach unwarranted conclusions.

Thanks for the wonderful lecture

 

[Irishjugg]

Leaf 2 is a 40kWh battery with 160 miles range, and no DCFC on the lowest trim without option, limited distribution to un-interested dealers.
Bolt has no DCFC on the lowest trim without option, still has limited availability to a few states, and an un-interested dealer network.
Kia Soul EV has a range of 93 miles, DCFC *IS* standard, but dealerships outside of CARB states don't even know what the blasted thing is. (Believe me, I've called before.)
The Honda Clarity will have a range of 89 miles, and from reports will only be available in CARB states.
Hyundai Ioniq has a 124 mile range, and is available only to California residents. Supposedly there will be a 200 mile version in 2018, but if Hyundai limits it to California as they are with the current version, it's just another compliance car.
BMW i3 has a range of 114 miles, and rumors are that the battery update will be delayed until 2019. BMW actually has a dealer network that seems more interested in selling the i3, so they may actually offer up some competition.
There are plenty of currently vaporware offerings from the likes of VW, Mercedes, etc, but so far the efforts seem half-hearted or DOA after conflict within the companies drowns the EV babies at birth. I don't expect the majority of automakers to take any real action until 100,000 Model 3 vehicles have been delivered during Q2 of 2018, then they'll start to worry.

Replying to tftf is a useless waste of time. He's the one poster here that most fits the profile of a paid astroturfer. Constantly spewing blatantly incorrect nonsense, ignoring being called out until he finally pretends he said something different all along, then getting his old posts linked proving he's lying, then he deletes those posts, etc.

Tftf is probably the only person here I think it's actually paid to troll, and if the alternative is true; that he's just a arrogant idiot with projection issues, then I don't feel the need to interact with him anyway.

I recommend not getting pulled into his nonsense.

 

[mgc]

I got TSLA at 35 and sold at 180 so my first Model s was free. Now Musk is raising money again and losses are increasing, too risky for me.

 

[Starno]

Its almost like the market thinks its a good idea to raise no dilutive money at under 5% to expand output dramatically.

Well especially since this raise is to finance a money losing product (according to a big percentage of players in the market), so yes indeed ...

 

[vgrinshpun]

Oh really. I wrote several times that it could take until 2020 before the dust is off the Tesla story. I wrote for years that long-range BEV competition and networks will only arrive by 2017-2021 in larger numbers.

The Leaf 2 and the Bolt are just first shots - wait until long-range BEV platforms and CCS/Chademo charging networks at 150kw+ are deployed. Both will happen, there are dozens of long-range BEVs in development (even from former "laggards" such as Toyota or FCA).

Wrong about TSLA stock? I can't be wrong as long as gullible investors pump $ into Tesla. That could take a few more months (in case of an external shock, say a conflict or recession) or even years (if current stock and economic cycle continues).

Wrong about products? Both Hyundai (Ioniq EV refresh) and Honda (new BEV unveil in late 2017, Honda will unveil a new all-electric vehicle this autumn ) will likely have mass-market BEVs with longer range ready by the time the Model3 goes on sale internationally (apparently "late 2018", but likely slipping into 2019 given Tesla's history of missed deadlines).

Meanwhile, Elon Musk keeps pumping hot air and fake deadlines...

Just two examples:

1) FSD promises: Elon, Where is the FSD features you promised?

"6 months definitely" / "FSD within 2 years" (back in 2015)

2) Tesla / Solarcity annual build capacity: Tesla Energy and utility scale projects

"10 GW" or "1GW" - which one is it?

The (bear) going must be really getting tough, another oracle is out of the hole over a sudden...

 

[vgrinshpun]

I got TSLA at 35 and sold at 180 so my first Model s was free. Now Musk is raising money again and losses are increasing, too risky for me.

Ha, I got my TSLA at $37, bought my MS few month later, financed at .99% for 6 years, successfully paying the loan using proceeds of my trading, and keeping every one of these shares I bought at $37. Not selling these shares. Too risky to sell for me.

 

[Richgoogol]

What's with the sudden drop?