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2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

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“Tesla recently discovered a potential manufacturing issue with electric parking brakes installed on certain Model S and Model X vehicles that could prevent the parking brake from releasing. We don’t believe this issue could ever lead to a safety concern for our customers, and we have not seen a single accident or injury relating to it. However, in order to be overly cautious, we are going to be proactively replacing these parts to ensure that no issues arise.”

The part in question is “a small gear” manufactured by a third-party supplier. Tesla believes this gear could have been “improperly manufactured” in less than 5% of the 53,000 cars. It has no impact on the regular braking systems and therefore, it doesn’t represent a direct risk to safety, but the car could stay stuck in ‘park’ if the gear breaks.



Total cost to Tesla for this recall? Probably nothing. Since this part is from a third party supplier, the supplier is likely responsible for all costs associated with the recall and replacing the part,

Number of incidents resulting from this problem? None.

Also, if I understand the potential problem, it would never has posed a safety threat to anyone. Biggest problem would be the vehicle won't start, or remains stuck in park (meaning the vehicle won't start). If any incidents of this did occur, Tesla and the driver would know immediately.
 

Total cost to Tesla for this recall? Probably nothing. Since this part is from a third party supplier, the supplier is likely responsible for all costs associated with the recall and replacing the part,

"Tesla doesn’t expect the recall to be material to its finances since the supplier of the problematic gear is covering the cost."
-Electrek.co
 
Also, I'm in this class. Here's the email Tesla just sent me in case anyone is interested. As usual, it's an abundance of caution thing where there have been no actual incidents.

Tesla recently discovered a potential manufacturing issue with the electric parking brakes installed on certain Model S and Model X vehicles that could prevent the parking brake from releasing. We do not believe this issue could ever lead to a safety concern for our customers, and we have not seen a single accident or injury relating to it. However, in order to be overly cautious, we are going to be proactively replacing these parts to ensure that no issues arise.

Specifically, we have determined that the electric parking brakes installed on Model S and Model X vehicles built between February and October 2016 may contain a small gear that could have been manufactured improperly by our third‑party supplier. If this gear were to break, the parking brake would continue to keep the car from moving, but the parking brake would then be stuck in place. There have been no reports of the parking brake system failing to hold a parked vehicle or failing to stop a vehicle in an emergency as a result of this condition, and this part has no impact on the car’s regular braking systems. We have also determined that only a very small percentage of gears in vehicles built during this period were manufactured improperly.

Our records show that you own a Tesla vehicle that was built during this period. We will soon be sending you an official recall notice by mail, which will include information on how to have your parking brakes replaced. In the meantime, it is safe to continue regular use of your vehicle.

Thank you for being a Tesla customer. For more information, FAQs, and other details related to this recall, please visit the Recall Information page. If you need additional assistance, you can also contact us by phone at 1‑877‑798‑3752 or by email at [email protected]. We apologize for this inconvenience.
 
I want to believe that reaching cost parity between solar and fossil fuels and the discovery of 'vast reserves of sunshine everywhere' is contributing to a long-term bull market.
It's leading to a sector selection market, which is not exactly a bull or a bear market. Look at the 1870 - 1920 period (when oil replaced coal, electricity arrived, etc.) for a comparison point.
 
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... here is an in-depth recounting of that story: Porsche: The Hedge Fund that Also Made Cars...I think the chances of a similar scenario playing out with TSLA are near-zero,

Great link! Some key excerpts in support of your conclusion:

"... because of something called the 'Volkswagen Rule.' The essence of this rule was that the local German government of Lower Saxony owned 20% of Volkswagen and could prevent anyone from acquiring company without their permission..." No analogue with TSLA

"...On October 27 2008, Porsche dropped a bomb on the financial community: it had again raised its stake in Volkswagen -- now to 42.6%. Moreover, it had secretly purchased “cash-settled” options to purchase another 31.5% of outstanding Volkswagen shares. Combined, Porsche had now corned 74.1% of all Volkswagen shares!..." Note cash settled.

"...For the short sellers, this was a disaster. Not only was Porsche continuing to buy up Volkswagen, which drove up its price, but since Porsche and the Lower Saxony government controlled 94.1% of the Volkswagen shares together, there were practically zero available shares on the market for the short sellers to cover their position..."

"...his maneuver of secretly buying shares would have been (and still would be) illegal in the United States. In Germany though, where Porsche is based, it was likely legal. Normally, it would have had to disclose its growing position, but it used “cash settled” options, which technically wasn’t considered “buying shares” in the company..."

Aftermath:
"...And precisely when Porsche needed banks the most, banks stopped lending money. The words spoken by the company’s CFO years before -- “banks are there for you when you don’t need them, and when you do need them, they’re no where to be seen” -- now seemed prophetic..."

"...The dramatic decline in VW stock price beginning about October 20, 2008 would have threatened to bankrupt Porsche had Porsche not already set its trap by luring in short sellers. That day, VW stock closed at €277, more than 22% below its closing price the previous Friday. By October 24, 2008, VW was trading at €211, more than 40% below the closing price of €358 on October 17, 2008. {SP plummeted 40% in five trading days}

...After VW's stock wild ride, Porsche agreed on October 29, 2008 (albeit under substantial pressure) to settle 5% of its position (releasing the squeeze at a substantial profit) and the German stock market (DAX) reduced VW's weighting in its index so that enough shorts were able to cover. This caused VW's stock price to return to more rational levels (plunging back to about €200 per share). But this was not before investors with significant short positions, like Plaintiffs, lost an estimated €30 billion in less than a week, and Porsche received a windfall of over €6 billion. Today [article dated 10/17/13], VW is trading at round €76.

"...German market regulators (BaFin) are investigating allegations of wrongdoing at Porsche, and Defendants Wiedeking and Haerter (both unceremoniously deposed from their positions as CEO and CFO at Porsche in July 2009) have had their homes and offices raided by Frankfurt and Stuttgart criminal authorities pursuant to a widening insider trading investigation..."

Financial Fraud and Securities Law : Porsche's Big "Squeeze" - the "Mother" of all Shorts - and Porsche's consequential derivative litigation

Adolf Merckle, one of the richest men in Germany, committed suicide within months of losing hundreds of millions of dollars.

"...Wendelin Wiedeking and Holger Härter acquitted of market manipulation [3/18/16] Wendelin Wiedeking and Holger Härter acquitted of market manipulation

Civil litigation on going.
 
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I understand today's dip happened when Tesla announced a voluntary recall of 53,000 vehicles. When the company let on that this voluntary recall should not affect financials because a 3rd party manufacturer of the part was paying for the recall, the stock recovered significantly. Since then, we've seen a couple dips down, followed by partial recoveries. The question is: who's selling to create these aftershocks? One explanation is the market makers appeared on Tuesday to be driving the stock toward 300 for week's end but couldn't hold the stock back from climbing on Wednesday. I'm rather inclined to believe they're behind the selling, taking advantage of this dip to moderate TSLA's gains prior to Friday's close. Shorts don't seem to be drawing down enough shares to make a difference, unless data shows otherwise.
 
More important than the fact that the sell news ended up being trivial is the fact that we rebounded so strongly at a price above 300 on that huge sell effort. Not long ago that kind of sell could have triggered a 10-15 point spiral. This display of solid support above 300 must really have made some shorts and MM's nervous - especially when GS tried to lower the share price today too
 
I understand today's dip happened when Tesla announced a voluntary recall of 53,000 vehicles. When the company let on that this voluntary recall should not affect financials because a 3rd party manufacturer of the part was paying for the recall, the stock recovered significantly. Since then, we've seen a couple dips down, followed by partial recoveries. The question is: who's selling to create these aftershocks? One explanation is the market makers appeared on Tuesday to be driving the stock toward 300 for week's end but couldn't hold the stock back from climbing on Wednesday. I'm rather inclined to believe they're behind the selling, taking advantage of this dip to moderate TSLA's gains prior to Friday's close. Shorts don't seem to be drawing down enough shares to make a difference, unless data shows otherwise.

FYI, Max pain (I checked last night, so it may have changed) was 295.
 
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