2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[erthquake]

how many of you "activist investors" / Tesla owners live in colorado? for some reason all it takes these days to be an activist is to buy TSLA stock... how many of you Coloradoans are even aware of this:

http://www.bizjournals.com/denver/n...-state-senator-would-tie-colorado-energy.html

"It’s likely, however, that a number of provisions of the wide-ranging bill will run into opposition, including a proposal to raise fees on electric cars to make up for the lack of gas taxes paid by those vehicles."

have you called your state senators?... or did you just hand a company with an over inflated stock some more of your money because that's what activism is in 2017?

*sniff*

Is that desperation I smell?

 

[ValueAnalyst]

I happened to sell about 20% of my TSLA on Monday at $326.44. Might be handy to have that cash around if the stock falls after the ER. However, I'm hopeful that there will be a surprise from guidance, which is what the investment community appears to be valuing the most, and the stock will go up tomorrow.

1) Model 3 is on track... the risk of delays are going away. I used to figure 5,000 Model 3 production this year, but surely, it'll be more like 50,000 at least.

2) Tesla Energy is growing fast and hasn't been talked about too much by Tesla themselves, in terms of hard numbers. We may get our first taste of guidance today.

3) Tesla Semi - yes, it'll be teasing at this stage, but the prospects could be exciting for investors.

1) M3 production will be 100k+ considering Tesla's parts orders for July, August, and September.
2 & 3) Agreed.

Given that the market is expecting M3 to be delayed and ramp up to be slow, but you expect production to be on time, why in the world would you sell any shares?

 

[erthquake]

Interesting timing on this SEC probe news SEC Probes Solar Companies Over Customer Cancellations

Very suspicious considering the only meaningful mention of Tesla/SolarCity is that they're looking into whether they adequately disclosed cancellations. They're looking into all solar companies, but Tesla is obviously the big name here.

 

[myusername]

*sniff*

Is that desperation I smell?

haha... yep... because it's all about the stock right?... did you even read the article?... I'll drop an interesting section in here for you... but you don't have to read it... because you've already done your part by buying a stock... here you go:

"But while one of the 23 sections of SB 301 is dedicated to expanding the acquisition powers of Colorado-based utilities, more are focused on eliminating incentives to use renewable energy, many of them put into place by former Gov. Bill Ritter, a Democrat who turned the focus of the office squarely toward sources such as wind and solar energy.

Scott’s bill would:

• Repeal the wind-for-schools grant program, the renewable-energy-and-energy-efficiency-for-schools loan program and the green building incentive pilot program.
• Remove the office’s responsibility to maintain a list of solar installers, the requirement for a builder to offer that list to customers and the requirement for the office to offer training on solar installations.
• And end the office’s involvement in the promotion of woody biomass, among other things.

Scott said that many of the programs he is cutting either are obsolete or have not been taken advantage of by the alternative-energy advocates who pushed for their creation. “As much as that group pounded all those things, they never used them,” he said.

A section of the bill also increases the registration fee on electric vehicles and the portion of that fee that is earmarked for the highway users tax fund that pays for road maintenance and expansion. Scott said SB 301 increases those fees to the equivalent of what a fuel-efficient Toyota Corolla would pay in gas taxes — about $85 a year more for those vehicle owners, he estimated."

 

[erthquake]

haha... yep... because it's all about the stock right?... did you even read the article?... I'll drop an interesting section in here for you... but you don't have to read it... because you've already done your part by buying a stock... here you go:

"But while one of the 23 sections of SB 301 is dedicated to expanding the acquisition powers of Colorado-based utilities, more are focused on eliminating incentives to use renewable energy, many of them put into place by former Gov. Bill Ritter, a Democrat who turned the focus of the office squarely toward sources such as wind and solar energy.

Scott’s bill would:

• Repeal the wind-for-schools grant program, the renewable-energy-and-energy-efficiency-for-schools loan program and the green building incentive pilot program.
• Remove the office’s responsibility to maintain a list of solar installers, the requirement for a builder to offer that list to customers and the requirement for the office to offer training on solar installations.
• And end the office’s involvement in the promotion of woody biomass, among other things.

Scott said that many of the programs he is cutting either are obsolete or have not been taken advantage of by the alternative-energy advocates who pushed for their creation. “As much as that group pounded all those things, they never used them,” he said.

A section of the bill also increases the registration fee on electric vehicles and the portion of that fee that is earmarked for the highway users tax fund that pays for road maintenance and expansion. Scott said SB 301 increases those fees to the equivalent of what a fuel-efficient Toyota Corolla would pay in gas taxes — about $85 a year more for those vehicle owners, he estimated."

I did read the article. I have no problem with it. I think that EV owners should makeup for the lack of gas tax revenue with higher reg fees. We all have to pay for roads.

Your article is immaterial to the daily stock price movements. You're welcome to create a new thread and discuss it there.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

haha... yep... because it's all about the stock right?... did you even read the article?... I'll drop an interesting section in here for you... but you don't have to read it... because you've already done your part by buying a stock... here you go:

"But while one of the 23 sections of SB 301 is dedicated to expanding the acquisition powers of Colorado-based utilities, more are focused on eliminating incentives to use renewable energy, many of them put into place by former Gov. Bill Ritter, a Democrat who turned the focus of the office squarely toward sources such as wind and solar energy.

Scott’s bill would:

• Repeal the wind-for-schools grant program, the renewable-energy-and-energy-efficiency-for-schools loan program and the green building incentive pilot program.
• Remove the office’s responsibility to maintain a list of solar installers, the requirement for a builder to offer that list to customers and the requirement for the office to offer training on solar installations.
• And end the office’s involvement in the promotion of woody biomass, among other things.

Scott said that many of the programs he is cutting either are obsolete or have not been taken advantage of by the alternative-energy advocates who pushed for their creation. “As much as that group pounded all those things, they never used them,” he said.

A section of the bill also increases the registration fee on electric vehicles and the portion of that fee that is earmarked for the highway users tax fund that pays for road maintenance and expansion. Scott said SB 301 increases those fees to the equivalent of what a fuel-efficient Toyota Corolla would pay in gas taxes — about $85 a year more for those vehicle owners, he estimated."

The fossil fuel industry is attacking renewable energy in all fronts as heavily as they can.

People need to stand up against this.

 

[myusername]

I did read the article. I have no problem with it. I think that EV owners should makeup for the lack of gas tax revenue with higher reg fees. We all have to pay for roads.

Your article is immaterial to the daily stock price movements. You're welcome to create a new thread and discuss it there.

it's actually a news element from today... not a month ago... just because you can't find it on CNBC... doesn't mean it's no relevant.

 

[racer26]

Big lurchy ticks again. I smell a high-volatility day.

 

[DurandalAI]

A section of the bill also increases the registration fee on electric vehicles and the portion of that fee that is earmarked for the highway users tax fund that pays for road maintenance and expansion. Scott said SB 301 increases those fees to the equivalent of what a fuel-efficient Toyota Corolla would pay in gas taxes — about $85 a year more for those vehicle owners, he estimated."

Do you really think that someone who's buying a $60,000+ Model S cares about a $85/yr registration fee? I save $1,000/yr in gasoline, I'm not concerned about a $85/yr fee, and I don't even have a Model S, I drive a rinky-dink Leaf that I bought used for $6k to commute in to get my EV fix while waiting for my Model 3. Yes I could afford a Model S, but I'm too much of a cheap-skate.

The thinking that EV buyers are going to be scared by an $85 registration fee is people tripping over dollars to pick up pennies.

 

[MartinAustin]

why in the world would you sell any shares?

I'm a bit of a chartist. I noticed it was having a meteoric run-up and figured it could be time to sell some and re-buy. So far, I'm right.

 

[geneclean55]

Looking good so far

 

[kenliles]

Theatres packed full of shorts, doors are barred. Now all it needs is Elon to bust in yelling fire.

that word packs them in--
maybe GIGA would work better

 

[Nate the Great]

I was expecting more of a gap up today, maybe towards the end of the day.

 

[mynameisjim]

Then it wouldn't be a gap, would it?

 

[esk8mw]

I was expecting more of a gap up today, maybe towards the end of the day.

TSLA seems to fade into earnings every quarter. And many quarters I'd buy short-term calls too early in the day and kick myself. This time I'm trying to wait until 2:55 to buy any calls (if prices are attractive).

 

[SW2Fiddler]

GLTA!

Great Longs Think Alike

 

[geneclean55]

TSLA seems to fade into earnings every quarter. And many quarters I'd buy short-term calls too early in the day and kick myself. This time I'm trying to wait until 2:55 to buy any calls (if prices are attractive).

Look for price volatility around 2pm

 

[ggr]

Regarding S&P500 inclusion, does anyone know just how much GAAP income TSLA would have to have this quarter to qualify for inclusion? I don't expect them to make this number, whatever it is, I'm just interested. I found SCTY's 10Qs at Company SEC Filings for 10-K Annual Reports and 10-Q Quarterly Reports :: Last10K.com, but I'm not certain that SCTY Q4 2016 before the acquisition was complete is completely reflected in TSLA's Q4 10k, which causes a discrepancy between the total of the quarters versus the annual in the 10K... at least I think that's what's going on. Anyway, here's what I worked out so far:

$M            TSLA    SCTY    both
q1/16         -282    -25     -307
q2/16         -293    -55     -348
q3/16           22     53       75
q4/16                         -121
Total of above                -701
2016 total from 10K           -773

Using the (more conservative) 10K annual, backing out Q1/16, if Q1 comes in with GAAP profit of $466M, I think this would qualify for inclusion. As I said, this is *ahem* unlikely.

But let's assume that Q1 is break-even, and use the 10K number for Q4/16. Then Q2 would only need $46M GAAP profit to qualify. In fact, so long as the total GAAP profit of Q1/Q2 is above about $46M we'd be there. This, I think, is entirely possible, so I predict entry around August/September (have to wait for Q2 10Q to come out), right when (hopefully) Model 3 is really ramping up. Wow.

 

[Richgoogol]

More people dumping than buying into the earnings today....seems like a lot of people are satisfied with their profit

 

[Starno]

More people dumping than buying into the earnings today....seems like a lot of people are satisfied with their profit

I think it's more about Macro. NASDAQ is down, and even the stocks showing steady growth those past couple of months : FB, AMAZN,APPL, are down as well.