2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[dmckinstry]

What are the prices at which people would exit their positions if a short squeeze were to ensue?

I'm planning to hold my position through a potential short-squeeze due to (1) long-term potential and (2) tax implications of short-term trading.

I'll never exit all my stock (well at $2000, the price will likely drop and I could buy back in.) Even then I'd only liquidate from my IRA brokerage accounts. If it reaches lesser points much higher than now, I'll at one point sell enough to pay for my daughter's M3, and at a higher point enough to pay for an MX for myself. Maybe one price point being $650, and the next being $800. And even that will depend how quickly the squeeze occurs.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

I'll never exit all my stock (well at $2000, the price will likely drop and I could buy back in.) Even then I'd only liquidate from my IRA brokerage accounts. If it reaches lesser points much higher than now, I'll at one point sell enough to pay for my daughter's M3, and at a higher point enough to pay for an MX for myself. Maybe one price point being $650, and the next being $800. And even that will depend how quickly the squeeze occurs.

Never is a strong word.

What would you do if tomorrow GM announced their batteries can charge 2x as fast and go 500 miles per charge? Someone earlier today posted the video of a presentation in which the presenter at the end says Apple's supplier has 100+ engineers working on similar research. "It's a race" he says.

It's good to stay "data-dependent" as Yellen would agree.

 

[MitchJi]

I think that the plan for the batteries for the semi's might be to use multiple 200 kWh powerpack's for batteries. If they put the infrastructure in place to swap them at supercharger sites there's a symbiotic advantage to using powerpacks.

Tesla benefits with less expensive power for the charging and by charging from powerpacks they can easily increase the charge rate. By using that system to supply semi's Tesla will be able to sell a massive amount of electricity. If they can get most of it from their own Solar panels it would be perfect (double green), plus affordable for customers. Ecologically green and financially green .

 

[sahanim]

I think that the plan for semi's might be to use multiple 200 kWh powerpack's for batteries. If they have the infrastructure in place to swap them at supercharger sites there's a symbiotic correlation because Tesla benefits with less expensive power for the charging and by charging from powerpacks they can easily increase the charge rate. Using that system Tesla will be able to supply semi's they'll be able to sell a massive amount of electricity. If they can get most of it from their own Solar panels it would be perfect (double green), and affordable for customers. Ecologically green and financially green .

Not too distant Tesla Warehouse:
1. Fully loaded autonomous semi rolls in with a nearly depleted pack
2. Autonomous forklifts unload semi + depleted (modular) battery pack
3. Autonomous forklifts load semi + fresh (modular) battery pack of appropriate kwh
4, On to the next one.

*drools*

 

[sahanim]

also...

You order a brand spanking new Tesla. One rolls off the lineat your nearest GF hours later and self-drives to your driveway waiting for you.

*drools some more*

 

[SW2Fiddler]

But practically everyone, including their most avid users, *hates* them and particularly hates their advertising. I suppose it's similar to Microsoft's Windows monopoly practices.

When my friends gripe (always *on* Facebook) about free-to-them Facebook, I'm that guy who reminds them that they the user are not Facebook's customer. The advertisers are FB's customer. My friends are the product.
It's more like... the news media, they aren't presenting the news to educate you, it's to harvest eyeballs to their customers=advertisers=them that pay their bills.
Consider also auto mfr > auto dealer (the customer) > auto buyer (user).

(obligatory Hey, look at that $TSLA SP, it's not what I'd expected the SP to be today, yesterday)

 

[Yggdrasill]

I think that the plan for the batteries for the semi's might be to use multiple 200 kWh powerpack's for batteries. If they put the infrastructure in place to swap them at supercharger sites there's a symbiotic advantage to using powerpacks.

Tesla benefits with less expensive power for the charging and by charging from powerpacks they can easily increase the charge rate. By using that system to supply semi's Tesla will be able to sell a massive amount of electricity. If they can get most of it from their own Solar panels it would be perfect (double green), plus affordable for customers. Ecologically green and financially green .

The powerpacks only charge at 0.25C or 50 kW. That's not very much.

What they could do is stuff Model 3 cells into a powerpack 2 variant. Should boost the capacity to around 300 kWh and the charging could go to around 450 kW. Four packs would be 1200 kWh and 1800 kW charging.

 

[Lhan]

Not too distant Tesla Warehouse:
1. Fully loaded autonomous semi rolls in with a nearly depleted pack
2. Autonomous forklifts unload semi + depleted (modular) battery pack
3. Autonomous forklifts load semi + fresh (modular) battery pack of appropriate kwh
4, On to the next one.

*drools*

Not forklifts, "Tesla Autonomous Robotic Mobility Platform"

 

[neroden]

When my friends gripe (always *on* Facebook) about Facebook, I'm that guy who reminds them that they the user are not Facebook's customer. The advertisers are FB's customer. My friends are the product.

Of course. But consider how often people complain about Google or about Google's ads (i.e. very rarely) vs. how often people people complain about Facebook or Facebook's ads (i.e. very frequently).

(I am actually invested in Google, and not in Facebook)

When a newspaper alienates their readers, eventually it causes advertisers to not place ads with them. There seems to be a longer lag time for this on the Internet than there was with newspapers (where one reporting scandal would cause major advertisers to pull their ads immediately) but it may be speeding up.

Facebook is primarily benefiting from network-effect lock-in. That's pretty powerful; it basically made Microsoft, which didn't make a single good product from the late 1980s through the early 2000s, and made several which should have been banned outright for the way they endangered security (they invented both the email virus and the macro virus) and because they were not fit for purpose (there were two separate versions of Excel which didn't calculate correctly). They made a lot of money because of network-effect lock-in. ("Everyone else is using this broken, virus-spreading version of Excel, so I have to use it too")

I really don't like making money off that degree of user-disservice evil. Some people have made a lot of money off such things, though. Call it socially responsible investing if you will; I can't sleep knowing that the company I'm invested in is only profitable because people (who want to stop dealing with it) can't figure out how to stop dealing with it yet. A point also relevant to certain utility companies.

 

[MitchJi]

I'll never exit all my stock (well at $2000, the price will likely drop and I could buy back in.) Even then I'd only liquidate from my IRA brokerage accounts.

That's exactly the point of the question. At what price, if any, do you feel confident that you can buy back in at a lower price.

For me it depends on how we get there, plus the number and effect that I estimate from short term catalysts. Selling my options at $600 would be much better than selling them at $400 six months later. Selling at $600,and rebuying at $400, then selling at $600 again would be sweet. OTOH selling at $600 and rebuying at $1,000 a few months later would hurt a little bit.

I'm still hope to hear from @vgrinshpun that we can pay for the real-time or daily short interest because the portion of the SP that is driven by forced covering, if it's substantial won't be sustainable. If we see a huge run up accompanied by a big percentage of shorts exiting the market, when that peaks is probably a good time to change course.

Three strategies for changing course could be replacing calls with shares, selling calls, or replacing LEAPS with a combination of calls and quarterly puts.

 

[Skryll]

I'm still trying to figure out how Facebook succeeded, and I suspect it's basically luck. They have network-effect monopoly power because you can't go elsewhere while your friends are there. But practically everyone, including their most avid users, *hates* them and particularly hates their advertising. I suppose it's similar to Microsoft's Windows monopoly practices. I don't like to invest in companies which are dependent on captive users who hate them, though they can be very profitable. They are the absolute most likely to be targeted by legislation, for fairly obvious reasons.

Much better to invest in a company whose users love the products.

And just yesterday I noticed the advertisement bothering me more, because it used to be all car ads that I could troll and solar ads that I could support, but now its random *sugar* I totally don't care about, the kind of which makes you switch the radio station. I am still long FB but wonder where it will take them in the long run. With TSLA I know where they are going, ever since I owned a Model X I deeply know and if I have a doubt all I have to do is take a ride. Happy to have exited my May 19th $305 calls this morning at a nice profit, had added to them when they went down and definitely was nervous about the short term play. I am better at accumulating

 

[Dagger]

OTOH selling at $600 and rebuying at $1,000 a few months later would hurt a little bit.

Hurting a little bit?
Bet it would hurt a lot, mostly from flogging myself.

 

[D-egg-O]

That's exactly the point of the question. At what price, if any, do you feel confident that you can buy back in at a lower price.

For me it depends on how we get there, plus the number and effect that I estimate from short term catalysts. Selling my options at $600 would be much better than selling them at $400 six months later. Selling at $600,and rebuying at $400, then selling at $600 again would be sweet. OTOH selling at $600 and rebuying at $1,000 a few months later would hurt a little bit.

I've been guilty of placing a limit order of $10,000/share every now and then.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

That's exactly the point of the question. At what price, if any, do you feel confident that you can buy back in at a lower price.

For me it depends on how we get there, plus the number and effect that I estimate from short term catalysts. Selling my options at $600 would be much better than selling them at $400 six months later. Selling at $600,and rebuying at $400, then selling at $600 again would be sweet. OTOH selling at $600 and rebuying at $1,000 a few months later would hurt a little bit.

Options will also get impacted by wild swings volatility. Good luck.

If you make a ton of money, that means I probably made some money, so I truly wish you the best.

Then I'm gonna move to San Diego to get closer to @DaveT.

 

[thx1139]

I'm still trying to figure out how Facebook succeeded, and I suspect it's basically luck. They have network-effect monopoly power because you can't go elsewhere while your friends are there. But practically everyone, including their most avid users, *hates* them and particularly hates their advertising. I suppose it's similar to Microsoft's Windows monopoly practices. I don't like to invest in companies which are dependent on captive users who hate them, though they can be very profitable. They are the absolute most likely to be targeted by legislation, for fairly obvious reasons.

Much better to invest in a company whose users love the products.

Dont know anyone who hates Facebook. Sure some things can get a bit annoying sometimes, but never said I hate Facebook because of an advertisement. Still find it the best way to keep in touch with people.

 

[Skryll]

I basically have been adding whenever the stock price started dropping, going into margin slowly up to 10-15%, then cashing out for short term profit when it bounced back up just to clear out the margin to 0%. Long term I am accumulating because there is not any end in sight for growth.

 

[Starno]

That's exactly the point of the question. At what price, if any, do you feel confident that you can buy back in at a lower price.

For me it depends on how we get there, plus the number and effect that I estimate from short term catalysts. Selling my options at $600 would be much better than selling them at $400 six months later. Selling at $600,and rebuying at $400, then selling at $600 again would be sweet. OTOH selling at $600 and rebuying at $1,000 a few months later would hurt a little bit.

I would never try to time.


How many people made the mistake of selling Netflix in 2011 at 42 dollars, after buying it in 2008 at 4,2 dollars. Making a nice 10x return in 3 years.

They could have been smart, and buy back at 8 dollars in 2012. But most of them didn't and missed A LOT.

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How many people made the mistake to buy Apple at 2,5 dollars in 2004. And selling in 2007 at 26 dollars....


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Timing the market in retrospective is easy. But when it happens in real time, even the experts often don't get it right.

 

[Jayjs20]

That's exactly the point of the question. At what price, if any, do you feel confident that you can buy back in at a lower price.

Yeah I'm not playing that game again. Losing 30% in 3 months is enough for me. Only way to win that game for sure is insider trading or owning a crystal ball.

 

[Richgoogol]

I'm calling an ATH close...

 

[D-egg-O]

I'm calling an ATH close...

You're jynxed it!