Runarbt
Active Member
I joined ur SA service today, so i wont have to read these myself.;-)
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I do not think this is entirelycorrect.
Reserves can and do rise abruptly, when new sources are discovered and proven. Horizontal drilled, of course, typically exists only where reserves are already known, fracking is another case entirely.
Shale reserves are being found in several places that had not been previously identified.
All places have susceptibility to booms and busts.
What we do know is that North American shale exploitation and new production areas around the world are all acting to reduce petroleum prices. As demand stabilizes or even reduces the pricing will have more downward pressure.
Impact on Tesla or BEV in general? I suggest not much because the absolute efficiency improvements and cost decline in BEV will continue to make BEV better and cheaper. Even public utilities will benefit long term as BEV power demand is proportionally greater at time when overall energy demand is lower. Then, lower BEV maintenance costs will have another virtuous cyclical effect.
This one is, by definition, valid!
I'll argue that any sudden petroleum price drops will probably produce temporary incremental TSLA shorts, and direct share price pressure too. That is simply because conventional wisdom says BEV sales are inversely influenced by declining petroleum prices 'at the pump'.
Short term market models should always incorporate oil and gas news. Long term, it really does not matter so much.
AntronX
Member
so is Tesla notorious for missing earnings by 2X and having a dramatic recovery because:
A) the future's so bright
or
B) there's a single bot that was following a trend line and keeps recovering it
please see my chart above... this stock has continuously held exactly on that line...
so let me ask you this: if this was simply a buyer acquiring a long term position... why would they recover the price back to the original trendline instead of buying low?... i mean... they were sufficiently accumulating before right?... so why would they just buy it back up to exactly the same trendline.
this is not a buyer... and it's not shorts... short interest is flat... this is price manipulation.
another question: is Elon and Tesla a success because of the business or because of the $50b+ market cap?... if the market cap was $10b... do you think anyone would care about this "story"?
that's motive.
It wasn't fake, it caused the shorts to panic to push it down. After amateur hour is done (actually happening now!) it'll go back up.
This guy..
its all about those bank bots expending so much capital elevating the SP so GS or whoever can run book-runner fees on a huge 1bill cap raise (reminds me of austin powers and 1 millllllllioooonnnn dollars!).
lol
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ValueAnalyst
Closed
I agree with the bolded statement, but what I am suggesting is that the shale reserves that are being discovered around the world, due to geological reasons, are not expected to be as productive as Permian (which by the way, has proven to be full-cycle unprofitable so far, and full-cycle economics in Bakken/Eagle Ford are even worse), with the exception of Vaca Muerta. This is not enough to make up for the accelerating depletion (not decline) rates in conventional supply across the world (including the US).
I agree in the longer term. In the shorter term, however, as you mentioned, TSLA still (to my surprise) has some correlation to oil prices.
There may be many outside of TMC unable to distinguish between announcements about solar "roofs" and solar "panels". In fact some people may think it was an announcement about solar roofs for cars rather than homes. So share price reaction may be developing more slowly than we might have expected today.
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ValueAnalyst
Closed
I noticed. Thank you so much for your support. In the first go, I didn't see anything material, but I will type up a detailed article by the end of today.
I'm also working on a multi-part analysis of the 10-K.
Thanks again!
ValueAnalyst
Closed
FYI everyone:
Expect increased volatility at 10:30 am due to EIA's weekly oil inventories report. Offshore drillers are already reacting to last night's API report, which showed a meaningful total product (oil + gasoline + distillate + other) draw.
I expect any impact to be transitory, unless the crude draw comes in at or more than 6-7mb, which would be unseasonal, and may cause a $1-2 jump in oil prices, and ignite the short squeeze. This is a long shot, but we'll see in a minute.
Expect increased volatility at 10:30 am due to EIA's weekly oil inventories report. Offshore drillers are already reacting to last night's API report, which showed a meaningful total product (oil + gasoline + distillate + other) draw.
I expect any impact to be transitory, unless the crude draw comes in at or more than 6-7mb, which would be unseasonal, and may cause a $1-2 jump in oil prices, and ignite the short squeeze. This is a long shot, but we'll see in a minute.
The phrase 'short squeeze' gets bandied about more often than the word - genius.
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ValueAnalyst
Closed
Crude draw 5 mb, products 2 mb. This is supportive of oil prices, but not a game-changer.
Yes, I agree with this post. The fundamental oil issues, though, have fairly modest impact on short term prices, which are the ones that affect short term TSLA. Frankly, I add a few political issues to my short term factors, although I'll not disclose my weightings.
1. BEV subsidy/incentive changes, anywhere;
2. changes in taxes/envirnmental rules for oil/gas retail distribution;
3. Political changes (domestic or international) for Russia, Venezuela, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Nigeria with lesser note for US, Canada, Brazil;
4. Announcements of possible technological advances in exploration/production/distribution
All of those make enough impact in short term sentiment that they act to motivate superficial short term traders, IMHO. My own charts show them to be pretty decent very short term predictors.
racer26
Active Member
Anybody else buying weekly calls to try and play the solar roof ordering open?
I bought a 325 call near the open.
I bought a 325 call near the open.
ValueAnalyst
Closed
Oil prices are moving up following the bullish EIA report, increasing pressure on TSLA shorts.
We'll see if the oil price action, combined with further Solar Roof news later today, will be enough to push TSLA to ATH.
I added to my position. I expect to hold all of my shares through a potential short-squeeze.
We'll see if the oil price action, combined with further Solar Roof news later today, will be enough to push TSLA to ATH.
I added to my position. I expect to hold all of my shares through a potential short-squeeze.
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I thought today was going to be a down day. All my shares were lent out by Fidelity after yesterday's incredible close. Then Elon's tweet about solar roof orders hit the news. I just love the smell of shorts burning on my loaned out shares in the morning! 
I actually got puts. We are at the top end of the BB, the top end of EVERY band since we are essentially at the ATH. I also don't really know what the solar roof website will say that will make the market happy. As far as I can tell it will just have the ability to order, and presumably pricing. That isn't really earthshattering in the best case (here I am just speaking for the dumb market momentum) and could even be perceived as bad if it is seen as too high (not competitive) or too low (not profitable). So this smells like a sell-the-news event.
sahanim
Member
Waiting4M3
Active Member
When did solar roof become the event that is driving the 2017 PPS? Did I miss something?
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