Mostly I agree with you:
Among the manufacturers promising many BEV's each:
BMW- although with famously public internal debates they're proceeding with everything from a Rolls-Royce to Mini. How many will hit the market in 2020 MY is another question but that is just ramped timing, not intent;
VW Group- everything from Bentley to something equivalent to UP! They're certainly showing firm plans but there's a lot of question bout their potential success;
Mercedes-Benz- everything from Maybach to the forthcoming all-electric Smart offerings. Their resolve is pretty firm, and included OTR Trucks too, probably one or more of their US brands and certainly European;
Nissan/Renault- at the moment they have the broadest range of offerings, thanks to Renault small urban vehicles. We have ideas but no firm proof of long range upscale products nor long range commercial vehicles;
Hyundai- hedging their bets but certainly will offer multiple power options in several vehicle lines including of course Ioniq;
Cummins: Say they have a LR Battery-power offering coming. No details, but they know they must!;
FCA- 'over my dead body' Marchionne has declared the future is BEV, from Ferrari to Mobi. We have zero clues how they'll do it. With Brazil their largest worldwide market, well above Italy, they will electrify there. As for Chrysler apart from the Pacifica we really have little clear outlook. The next six months will certainly yield much clearer outlook, but the major short term emphasis will certainly be to save Europe sales.
PSA- Just as clear as FCA. Stuck with aging Opel plus their own we can anticipate some entertaining partnerships.
Other "Europeans"- Both JLR and Volvo are moving to make multiple BEV offerings, with scant firm details but lots of promise. Use of quotes because they are respectively Tata (Indian) and Geely (Chinese)
The US and other Japanese builders are less clear about their early plans except for GM extending Bolt architecture to other brands and Toyota implying that they're going to be aggressive with BEV's.
As we all know there are two huge impediments, 1. Battery supply and 2. charging infrastructure. Those two are now the major ones because the technical progress is rapid enough to remove deal-breakers in terms of energy efficiency and battery cost. All indications are that battery supply will be is fair supply by 2020. Charging infrastrure is rapidly improving in most parts of the industrial world but much of the seeming availability is limited by inadequate chargers per location and the everlasting standards/billing issues. My personal view is that we'll see very rapid charging system development and deployment almost everywhere during the next decade. By 2025 We'll be able to BEV from Ushuaia-Barrow and Paris-Peking although political risk will make such trips rarely taken.
Thinking globally there is scant BEV or charging in several major auto markets: Southern Cone- in aggregate about the seventh largest global market- Basically zero today; Middle East- tiny bits such as Jordan and UAE as well as coming in Turkey. Almost nothing elsewhere and non-testa. Iran,Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Oman, Israel, Kuwait are already robust auto markets, with Iraq and Syria questions too, despite obvious issues. Five years from now all those will be big issues.
Eastern Europe- high demand, decent environments, mostly, but minimal BEV charging infrastructure except for Tesla being committed to supporting tourist travel.
As a note there are three global manufacturers who are in a horrible position: FCA, PSA and Ford. What happens with those? In the next class is GM, magically ahead of the others because of Volt/Bolt and some history, but, little serious market commitment given their size.
I haven't mentioned the Chinese. It is no accident that MB, BMW, Tesla and others are keenly attentive to China market potential for both supplies and sales. GM ought to be well-positioned but... BYD will be a global force, and they have historically had a commercial vehicle focus and have cleverly provided a true-key charging and maintenance offering in almost every market they enter. Their commercial marketing approach is now being emulated by Tesla and MB are obviously attentive. Tesla semi and other forthcoming commercial vehicles will almost certainly be offered in this way.
I recognize that this little polemic may be seen as premature, and it is certainly superficial. However, with Model 3 and the onslaught of major product offerings the absolute need to tackle infrastructure in all these places and more is unquestionable.
Our TSLA investment outlook should begin to consider these and other issues now. The revolution is happening. BEV's are now where the entire motor vehicle market was around 1910. Will Tesla be Ford or will it be Baker?
