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Thanks for the clarification. I am very relived to be wrong.It's definitely per week, original text says "每周1萬", "每周" means every week, "萬" means 10,000.
Also "原訂12月起每周5,000套零組件的供貨水位" means initially they targered weekly 5,000 pace in Dec. It's very clear, no misunderstanding here.
This is Tesla, they might take over manufacturing some themselves.Use logic. Do you think Tesla will drop parts order to 10k per month in the middle of 2018?
It's definitely per week, original text says "每周1萬", "每周" means every week, "萬" means 10,000.
Also "原訂12月起每周5,000套零組件的供貨水位" means initially they targered weekly 5,000 pace in Dec. It's very clear, no misunderstanding here.
I do hope you are correct. Unfortunately, I see more Longs getting squeezed out and rotating to FANG stocks. There is little good Tesla news out there right now. Sentiment, and sustained positive movement in the SP of TSLA will only come, IMO, when there is unequivocal evidence that the 3s are being produced in quantity.
The X and 3 delays are quite different in cause, IMO but they are both *misses* on EM guidance. The X was due to complexity of design while the 3 is due to the A team at A suppliers not coming through or bottlenecks by Tesla manufactured parts (battery pack assembly at the GF and validation of stamping equipment at Fremont....my speculation on the latter)
Having been in TSLA for years I have come to expect EM guidance is aspirational not real. It does not make it any easier as an investor to have us all sit through 'stockholder hell'.
I am not selling a single share or any of the J19s but it does not mean one can't question management on failure to deliver. The shorts have a good narrative right now. It won't last forever.
With another threatening red day to go along with the others from the last week plus all of the negative news lately, I do not fear the ER next week. I have a very hard time seeing this ER being negative relative to what is known now. I don't believe it will cause a further drop next week. TSLA at ~ $320 is a great price for the coming year.
If everything bad is accounted for prior to earnings, then earnings will be good/as expected
If each car requires multiple of these parts, why would Tesla originally only order 5K/wk parts in Dec?I think this is good too. But 10,000 parts does not mean 10,000 cars. Each car could have multiple parts.
I was very excited when I read about the Taiwanese parts order, thinking 10k a week by June sounds great. I just looked again, and It looks to me from the Google translate, that it is 10K per month, not per week. That is not nearly as exciting.
It may be a pipe dream at this point, but it would be nice if Tesla gives a quantitative guidance on Q4 margin. Without knowing Nov/Dec M3 output it would be all but impossible to guide. But if they do guide, that means they have good visibility and confidence in the rampYeah we are at the end of a Bear cycle. When it ends it tough to say exactly but its probably next week. Normally we enter the ER days down quite a bit, but the sentiment is so low right now we seem to be set up for a relief rally after the ER. BUT, we could have a big red day the day of ER, or a big red morning after the ER if the EPS is terrible.
The sellers will be exhausted soon. It's a fine time to buy stock and wait it out.
The ER will be financially poor, but I think that is expected at this point. As long as the cash story is ok, that won't be the big story (though it will be plenty of headlines of course). The big story will be feedback on the M3 ramp. I expect that to be either
1) Actually good. They explain in fair detail what the problems are, how many there are and when they will be resolved. Just clarity here would be positive, even if some of the details are negative. Imaginations are running wild with bad theories.
2) Sounds good. They explain that things are fine, and give some concrete examples of progress and good stories we hadn't heard. The y exonerate a few possible supply problems (like say battery cell supply is fine). They still leave some ambiguity but they paint a positive picture of the ramp. This is basically a Model X style pep rally and they don't shy away from such things.
I don't see this happening, even if it were true:
3) We are way behind. We have problems and we aren't sure when they will be fixed. Assume the worst.
So with the stock sold down to bargain basement prices, 1 or 2 seem like positives. The bad EPS, out of the way, gives shorts less to chew on and they exit (or exit before the ER).
Anyone knows how many of these "reduction gearbox(es)" each Model 3 needs?
If the gear box qty will increase to 10K by 2H18, if it's the same gearbox (instead of 2 different models), that would mean that the AWD should use the same gear box, which likely means it will use the same rear motor.Guessing it's the single one in the RWD DU.
Musk’s Plant Makeover Even More of a Long Shot as Model 3 Lags
By Dana Hull and John Lippert on Bloomberg Tech, today at 5am
Or smell.Shhhhhh.....that's not what people want to hear.
Nice, so once M3 ramps up at Fremont, it will be one of the top 10 largest North American auto factories by volume. If M3 ramps to 10K/wk, and MS/X lines crank out a little more efficiency and exceed 120K/yr, it has a chance to edge out Smyrna and become the largest, a year from now.
NoIs everyone in agreement for 10,000 per week by 2Q18 target, at least with respect to the interpretation of the supplier comment?