Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register

2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

This site may earn commission on affiliate links.
Status
Not open for further replies.
It's definitely per week, original text says "每周1萬", "每周" means every week, "萬" means 10,000.

Also "原訂12月起每周5,000套零組件的供貨水位" means initially they targered weekly 5,000 pace in Dec. It's very clear, no misunderstanding here.
Thanks for the clarification. I am very relived to be wrong.
 
I've posted this in the Technical Analysis thread, but it may bear repeating here.

This morning TSLA slipped 59¢ under its 200-day simple moving average of $317.25, then rebounded a few dollars from the day’s low. If this holds, that SMA may have proven to be a significant support level.

Meanwhile, note that GM, F and TSLA are all down by similar percentages at this moment.
 
I do hope you are correct. Unfortunately, I see more Longs getting squeezed out and rotating to FANG stocks. There is little good Tesla news out there right now. Sentiment, and sustained positive movement in the SP of TSLA will only come, IMO, when there is unequivocal evidence that the 3s are being produced in quantity.

The X and 3 delays are quite different in cause, IMO but they are both *misses* on EM guidance. The X was due to complexity of design while the 3 is due to the A team at A suppliers not coming through or bottlenecks by Tesla manufactured parts (battery pack assembly at the GF and validation of stamping equipment at Fremont....my speculation on the latter)

Having been in TSLA for years I have come to expect EM guidance is aspirational not real. It does not make it any easier as an investor to have us all sit through 'stockholder hell'.

I am not selling a single share or any of the J19s but it does not mean one can't question management on failure to deliver. The shorts have a good narrative right now. It won't last forever.

With another threatening red day to go along with the others from the last week plus all of the negative news lately, I do not fear the ER next week. I have a very hard time seeing this ER being negative relative to what is known now. I don't believe it will cause a further drop next week. TSLA at ~ $320 is a great price for the coming year.

If everything bad is accounted for prior to earnings, then earnings will be good/as expected ;)

Yeah we are at the end of a Bear cycle. When it ends it tough to say exactly but its probably next week. Normally we enter the ER days down quite a bit, but the sentiment is so low right now we seem to be set up for a relief rally after the ER. BUT, we could have a big red day the day of ER, or a big red morning after the ER if the EPS is terrible.

The sellers will be exhausted soon. It's a fine time to buy stock and wait it out.

The ER will be financially poor, but I think that is expected at this point. As long as the cash story is ok, that won't be the big story (though it will be plenty of headlines of course). The big story will be feedback on the M3 ramp. I expect that to be either

1) Actually good. They explain in fair detail what the problems are, how many there are and when they will be resolved. Just clarity here would be positive, even if some of the details are negative. Imaginations are running wild with bad theories.
2) Sounds good. They explain that things are fine, and give some concrete examples of progress and good stories we hadn't heard. The y exonerate a few possible supply problems (like say battery cell supply is fine). They still leave some ambiguity but they paint a positive picture of the ramp. This is basically a Model X style pep rally and they don't shy away from such things.

I don't see this happening, even if it were true:
3) We are way behind. We have problems and we aren't sure when they will be fixed. Assume the worst.

So with the stock sold down to bargain basement prices, 1 or 2 seem like positives. The bad EPS, out of the way, gives shorts less to chew on and they exit (or exit before the ER).
 
I think this is good too. But 10,000 parts does not mean 10,000 cars. Each car could have multiple parts.
If each car requires multiple of these parts, why would Tesla originally only order 5K/wk parts in Dec?

Edit:

Although this part:

"But Model 3 orders a large amount, Tesla to ensure that the supply of goods on schedule delivery and risk diversification, to take "double supplier" approach, that is, one for the old supplier, the other for the new supplier."

Assuming this supplier is not the single supplier. If Tesla is dividing orders equally between the 2 suppliers, then it could mean that 5K/wk * 2 suppliers equals 2 parts per car @ 5k car/wk pace. Then the question is what is happening with the 2nd supplier? If they don't see any cuts, then the actual reduction is from 10K to 7K, if they see a 100% cut, then the total reduction is from 10K to 3K. Huge range here.
 
  • Helpful
Reactions: STARR X and madodel
Yeah we are at the end of a Bear cycle. When it ends it tough to say exactly but its probably next week. Normally we enter the ER days down quite a bit, but the sentiment is so low right now we seem to be set up for a relief rally after the ER. BUT, we could have a big red day the day of ER, or a big red morning after the ER if the EPS is terrible.

The sellers will be exhausted soon. It's a fine time to buy stock and wait it out.

The ER will be financially poor, but I think that is expected at this point. As long as the cash story is ok, that won't be the big story (though it will be plenty of headlines of course). The big story will be feedback on the M3 ramp. I expect that to be either

1) Actually good. They explain in fair detail what the problems are, how many there are and when they will be resolved. Just clarity here would be positive, even if some of the details are negative. Imaginations are running wild with bad theories.
2) Sounds good. They explain that things are fine, and give some concrete examples of progress and good stories we hadn't heard. The y exonerate a few possible supply problems (like say battery cell supply is fine). They still leave some ambiguity but they paint a positive picture of the ramp. This is basically a Model X style pep rally and they don't shy away from such things.

I don't see this happening, even if it were true:
3) We are way behind. We have problems and we aren't sure when they will be fixed. Assume the worst.

So with the stock sold down to bargain basement prices, 1 or 2 seem like positives. The bad EPS, out of the way, gives shorts less to chew on and they exit (or exit before the ER).
It may be a pipe dream at this point, but it would be nice if Tesla gives a quantitative guidance on Q4 margin. Without knowing Nov/Dec M3 output it would be all but impossible to guide. But if they do guide, that means they have good visibility and confidence in the ramp
 
Went back to read the Taiwan supplier article carefully and found a handful of info not talked much here:

1. Seat issue: Model 3的座椅沒有設計可放置文件的背袋,也沒有扶手,甚至連座椅也太短,對身材較高大的男性而言,並不舒服,更無法滿足企業老闆或貴賓的需求 "Model 3 seat has not pocket for holding documents, no handrails, and even the seat is too short, taller men, Boss or VIP needs."

2. "至於供應鏈部分,沈國榮說,目前問題出在部分供應鏈廠商的產品良率,無法達到特斯拉要求,雙方還在磨合中,以致於產量開不出來。"As for the supply chain part, Shen Guorong said that the current problem in some of the supply chain manufacturers product yield rate, can not meet the requirements of Tesla, the two sides are still running, so that production can not be opened out."

Shen Guorong's title is Chairman of the Board of 和大集團 ( Google translation has it "and large group," wronged too much), which I believe equivalent to CEO and Chairman and President, all together, i.e. the #1 guy.
From the attached table, 和大集團 provides 减速齿轮箱 (something like reduction gearbox) to Tesla.

Anyone knows how many of these "reduction gearbox(es)" each Model 3 needs?

3. 但Model 3接單量大,特斯拉為確保零組件供應如期交貨且分散風險,採取「雙供應商」做法,即一家為舊供應商,另一家為新供應商。"But Model 3 orders a large amount, Tesla to ensure that the supply of goods on schedule delivery and risk diversification, to take "double supplier" approach, that is, one for the old supplier, the other for the new supplier."


tl;dr:
Seat design not satisfactory, could be redesigned
The boss of that Taiwanese supplier believes that the bottleneck could be partially due to supplier quality issue
Tesla employs "Double supplier" approach, i.e. two suppliers for the same parts to spread risk

BTW, it definitely talks about "per week"
 
Musk’s Plant Makeover Even More of a Long Shot as Model 3 Lags

By Dana Hull and John Lippert on Bloomberg Tech, today at 5am

Nice, so once M3 ramps up at Fremont, it will be one of the top 10 largest North American auto factories by volume. If M3 ramps to 10K/wk, and MS/X lines crank out a little more efficiency and exceed 120K/yr, it has a chance to edge out Smyrna and become the largest, a year from now.

1000x-1.png
 
Nice, so once M3 ramps up at Fremont, it will be one of the top 10 largest North American auto factories by volume. If M3 ramps to 10K/wk, and MS/X lines crank out a little more efficiency and exceed 120K/yr, it has a chance to edge out Smyrna and become the largest, a year from now.

Can we actually correct that graph and only include BEV instead of legacy gas cars? I presume manfucaturing of those are different and new to everybody to some degree and not that interesting to compare. Then Nissan and Tesla would be on the top I suppose? If I read these right, Nissan may want to grow their production of the new Leaf as well: Nissan gets 9,000 orders for the new Leaf in less than 2 months
 
Last edited:
Status
Not open for further replies.