2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[TrendTrader007]

I am seeing a potentially reversing hollow red spinning top candle at a critical juncture right at 200 day simple moving average it might not mean anything If the downturn becomes really vicious but it could potential he be a reversal right here with the ER coming up in three days

 

[elasalle]

View attachment 256727 I am seeing a potentially reversing hollow red spinning top candle at a critical juncture right at 200 day simple moving average it might not mean anything If the downturn becomes really vicious but it could potential he be a reversal right here with the ER coming up in three days

Question I have is how much TA matters in and around earnings?

 

[TrendTrader007]

All in all the long term picture looks super bullish to me and as far as I am concerned I’m willing to take the risk of short-term downside to avoid missing out on the long term upside which is likely to be tremendous over the next several years. My strategy is very simple I have about as much stock and calls as I could possibly can buy and I’m super leveraged and I will just sit out this correction and I will liquidate the minimum number of shares that I have to in order to meet my margin calls and whatever is left which is the maximum number of shares I can carry I will continue to hold for the long run
next week should be super interesting

 

[elasalle]

Elon Musk on Twitter This is a miss.

Elon Musk on Twitter This is a probable miss.

In 2016, Elon also did in fact say that Tesla would produce 100,000 to 200,000 Model 3's in 2H17. And no, not run-rate: “So as a rough guess, I would say we would aim to produce 100,000 to 200,000 Model 3s in the second half of next year. That’s my expectation right now.”

1500 M3's in September was part of guidance. I think the market and many of us here in TMC was expecting that to be correct.... along with M3 easier to build, dreadnaught etc etc.

So yes just short term hick ups, but definitely part of the story.

The above along with FOMO is really what caused most to leverage a bit more I am sure.

 

[TrendTrader007]

Question I have is how much TA matters in and around earnings?

Not a whole lot really if the ER is bad
You can only tell in hindsight

 

[Waiting4M3]

Question I have is how much TA matters in and around earnings?

or around a critical product launch/ramp. Can anyone do a regression test of TA on the MS ramp in 2012? or MX ramp in 2015 and show how it works?

 

[elasalle]

Not a whole lot really if the ER is bad
You can only tell in hindsight

Thanks for you honest reply.

There is always chance that some Algos(Option Hacker etc ) detect some patterns based on insider info etc etc all the way to earnings .. & IMHO that is where it can provide the most value Add.

 

[MitchJi]

Great idea. Would also advocate a counter on how many times DaveT has threatened to leave. What’s good for one is good for all

I don't always agree with @DaveT 's posts but his posts are useful and constructive. Your posts and @Lump 's posts doing nothing but criticizing other members are neither.

On ramp to 10,000 per week. Why wouldn't Tesla start working on Line 2, which will be a duplicate of some parts of Line 1, until 3Q?

Because there isn't going to be a second line until Gigafactory 3.

 

[elasalle]

M3 is a well kept secret with NDAs and availability to just employees and a few who must have signed NDAs.
The video is great, .. and is the best after the glimpses we got from OCDetailing. Still it cannot give away all the secrets because the latest software packages were not available yet at the time or recording.

If on Oct 31st/Nov 1st we see a S/X refresh to make some stuff in par with M3 and also be told that M3 production is not as bad as what it is made out to be .. we can expect fireworks.

Note: just speculation, and if you have already speculated on the SP crossing 500, please digest this with a few grains of salt

 

[MitchJi]

If the SP gets to $310 I'd buy J19's at a lower strike price, something like $350's instead of $400's. Then wait to make a big profit on the J19's then roll them to J20's.

It's very kind of the shorts to continue to help us to get these incredible buying opportunities. Take advantage when you can.

Unless of course you believe that the SP will be even lower in the future.

The problem with waiting is that if you have the chance to buy J19's or J20's when the SP is $310 is a slam dunk opportunity to make a bunch of money. So the decision boils down how greedy you want to be, or to one guarantied bird in the hand vs two in the bush

 

[ls7corvete]

Unless of course you believe that the SP will be even lower in the future.

The problem with waiting is that if you have the chance to buy J19's or J20's when the SP is $310 is a slam dunk opportunity to make a bunch of money. So the decision boils down how greedy you want to be, or to one guarantied bird in the hand vs two in the bush

If you have the ability, can always sell cash covered puts a bit in the money. That is what I plan to do if I can get my fresh powder ready before the stock heads north again.

 

[MitchJi]

A 70 minute review. Is there a Cliff's Notes version?

I sent the following to several friends:

"Now the video is clearly not for everyone. We are talking about footage of virtually every inch of the Model 3 including the door seal and trims, but if that’s the kind of thing you like or you are looking to get a better idea of the build quality then there’s plenty to work with here."

I believe that you will enjoy watching this, because you will see that you will love your M3!

It's also worth watching as an investor.

 

[Lump]

I don't always agree with @DaveT 's posts but his posts are useful and constructive. Your posts and @Lump 's posts doing nothing but criticizing other members are neither.
.

Easy there, no need for personal attacks just because Mods haven't built your "Hand picked. Elitestist, Super Genies, Big Ego" investor thread, I know its tough wading thru posts & how precious your time is, so hang in there.

 

[MitchJi]

You can say that again. I've come to realize that one of the major reasons most people, including most professionals, can't beat the indexes is that they don't spend massive numbers of hours doing research. There are many ways to do research, but the bottom line is, you have to have more information than the "average trader", and the way that happens is by researching a lot.

Or be smarter than the average investor, which judging by the short interest in TSLA isn't a very high hurdle to overcome.

 

[MitchJi]

Easy there, no need for personal attacks just because Mods haven't built your "Hand picked. Elitestist, Super Genies, Big Ego" investor thread, I know its tough wading thru posts & how precious your time is, so hang in there.

How is that personal attack useful!?

 

[MitchJi]

If 2170 cells from Japan is an option, would it also help solve the current M3 bottleneck? assuming the Panasonic/GGF/M3 delay rumor has some truth?

I'd say no.

If they are producing 2170's in Japan, using the technology developed for the Gigafactory they would have sufficient volume and lower costs for the MS-MX. But prices would still be too high for the M3, and the odds that they have no problems building 2170 cells in Japan and packs in Nevada, but are having problems building cells and packs in Nevada serms unlikely.

 

[geneclean55]

Communication issues between Japanese and US workers (and incompetent US employees) was listed among problems underlying cell production at GF1.

 

[Waiting4M3]

I'd say no.

If they are producing 2170's in Japan, using the technology developed for the Gigafactory they would have sufficient volume and lower costs for the MS-MX. But prices would still be too high for the M3, and the odds that they have no problems building 2170 cells in Japan and packs in Nevada, but are having problems building cells in Nevada serms unlikely.

how about using Japan 2170 cells temporarily (say Oct/Nov) to build enough packs to allow M3 production to run at higher speed, and flush out any potential bottlenecks in both M3 production and battery pack production, while fix any 2170 cell production issue at GF1?

 

[Chickenlittle]

I don't always agree with @DaveT 's posts but his posts are useful and constructive. Your posts and @Lump 's posts doing nothing but criticizing other members are neither.

Because there isn't going to be a second line until Gigafactory 3.

Funny. You assume I was criticizing him but I was only advocating equal treatment for all members

 

[TrendTrader007]

extremely likely that we will find support sometime next week and go up after ER
whether or not that happens the trick is not to get spooked out and sell your position just before the stock truly takes off
the bears are giving it their best shot, let's see what they got
my strong suspicion is that they will get trapped big time after ER