2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[mongo]

Maybe they are waiting for the AWD version next year.

 

[myusername]

why did you look at a year's worth of data? I made the point that this started showing up more frequently around Aug/Sept. and then you noticed the **5's and that's where you stop?... now think about the slogan that got started here: "mandatory morning dip"... well it exists into the close too. when volume picks up, the stock typically goes down. so which side of $**6 does would that land on?

here's the last 3 months of closes, or 63 sessions:

0: 5
1: 7
2: 7
3: 4
4: 4
5: 16
6: 8
7: 5
8: 3
9: 5

yep, you're right... it typically closes on the 5s.

so the way to state this is, in the last 3 months the stock price is 2 times more likely to close on a 5 than any other day... and the second most likely day is a 6.

but another way to say this is... the stock gets pinned to a 6 for long stretches of time then closes under due to volume.

here's a visual aid:

View attachment 263284

first... the highest spike is the day after the semi reveal... the premarket SP moments before the open (if not the last premarket trade) was $326.00. that's the highest spike... then it dropped all the way down and closed at $315.05.

now think about this... the day OF the semi reveal, the stock is trading around $315 in premarket... then it opens at $313... then within 120 seconds the stock hit's $316... literally... then drops back to $312 for the morning dip... then recovers and fades back to $316... then it drops into the close... then it opens on a 6 and closes on a 6 the next day.... and then the NEXT day (11/20)... it craters to $306... supports just under it and then recovers over that and the next session to $316 (11/21)... look how it ramps up on 11/21... hit's $318 and then drops back to $316...

"oh, but then it closed at $317+"... and then the next morning it OPENED AT $316.

since you're capable of quickly disseminating data... here's the low and high data:

LOW:

0: 8
1: 10
2: 9
3: 8
4: 4
5: 5
6: 5
7: 3
8: 4
9: 6

HIGH:

0: 3
1: 4
2: 6
3: 4
4: 5
5: 3
6: 9
7: 11
8: 11
9: 6

The supports and resistances are on the **3's, **8's and **1.87... meaning when the stock pushes down on the open... it will typically bounce off a 3 and if it gets through, then $xx1.87 is a hard support... then the stock will recover all the way to an **8 and then fade back to the 6's.

and now minutes before premarket it's trading at $316.05.

EDIT: make that: Ext Hrs 316.0 -0.81 (-0.26%) @ 09:20:00

 

[bambam4171]

and now minutes before premarket it's trading at $316.05.

EDIT: make that: Ext Hrs 316.0 -0.81 (-0.26%) @ 09:20:00

You sound a bit like someone with paranoia

 

[myusername]

I do not think so. I think the market is waiting on sustained volume on the Model 3 and the ability to show a profit. I believe Tesla will get there but for now many perceive it as risky.

and for some reason "The Market" decides the best place to wait is at $306, $316 or $326?... what about $336, $346, $356 and $366?... what was it doing pinned to those numbers in Q3?

 

[myusername]

You sound a bit like someone with paranoia

nope. i'm not a conspiracy nut... but when people talk about what The Market "thinks" and you see these ridiculous patterns for multiple months... then something is just slapping you in the face.

 

[mongo]

You sound a bit like someone with paranoia

Nah, he/she is just watching their 6.

 

[elasalle]

Maybe they are waiting for the AWD version next year.

would that count as a significant design change? - my understanding is that is the only way it would be eligible.

 

[SunCatcher]

Maybe they are waiting for the AWD version next year.

My bet is that MT has a bigger idea in store for the Model 3. Bigger, as in "Car of the Century" designation coming in the near future. "Car of the Year" award is no where near good enough for the Tesla Model 3. You watch.

Edit; just noticed this was already suggested last night in the General thread. Brilliant minds think alike.

 

[mongo]

would that count as a significant design change? - my understanding is that is the only way it would be eligible.

I was operating on the premise that it would, but who knows...

 

[avoigt]

AP predict and prevent accidents

Thats just amazing - thought I share it:

 

[JoaoD]

I wonder why...?

We’ve Temporarily Removed Comments
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That message was there since, at least, they first made a Model 3 review with JB red car.

 

[JoaoD]

AP predict and prevent accidents

Thats just amazing - thought I share it:

That looks totally fake to me. You can even hear an ICE engine running at 0:38 and 0:39 that seems to come from the car that is taking the footage.

 

[Mike Smith]

I'm liking the odds of a big move higher today. The trading range has gotten very tight and dips are being bought. There's only one other direction to go.

 

[Lump]

AP predict and prevent accidents

Thats just amazing - thought I share it:

Beeb beeb beeb beeb, AP saved the RMS Titanic from hitting an iceberg .

 

[avoigt]

That looks totally fake to me. You can even hear an ICE engine running at 0:38 and 0:39 that seems to come from the car that is taking the footage.

I have seen in the last months other videos that have the same results. Allow me to politely disagree to your comment.

Also, I guess we have some users here who may be able to talk from experience.

In the future once AP gets more advanced and moves closer to AP4 and finally 5 in a few years we will experience a lot of comments of people who will say its just too good to be true. Disbelieve is a normal reaction in an disruptive environment...

 

[Richgoogol]

I wonder how long they can contain this within the red zone..

 

[doctoxics]

Galileo Russell describes the (his) current Tesla investment logic as well as anyone I have heard in a long time.

Tesla's Cash Pile - Galileo Russell's Idea Of The Month - Tesla Motors (NASDAQ:TSLA) | Seeking Alpha

 

[JoaoD]

I have seen in the last months other videos that have the same results. Allow me to politely disagree to your comment.

Also, I guess we have some users here who may be able to talk from experience.

In the future once AP gets more advanced and moves closer to AP4 and finally 5 in a few years we will experience a lot of comments of people who will say its just too good to be true. Disbelieve is a normal reaction in an disruptive environment...

I have also seen videos of Teslas doing it, I'm not saying Teslas can't prevent accidents. But the video linked here seems more like someone put the autopilot disengage and the warning sound over a car crash compilation. It even has one clip where the accident is behind the car, being filmed with the rear dashcam, Teslas don't alert and disengage autopilot based on possible crashes behind you, as far as I know.
As if the engine sound was not a clear sign.

And I don't mean that all of those clips on that video are fake, some could still be real.

 

[Gerardf]

@ mysusername.
Can you please stop this shareprice_ending_in posting.
Create an other thread for your “the shareprice -is-rigged theories if you want, but this is all getting to crazy and very annoying, even for those of us for whom you are invisible.

It certainly does not belong in this market action thread. And neither the roundtable discussion thread.

 

[Bobbyducati]

92k shares for sale at 320$. wowza