2017 Q3 ER- Predictions and thoughts

[30seconds]

nevermind, I see that you have it growing slightly vs. Q2

 

[TMSE]

Seeking Aclue

oh yeah..Actually, it is Stinking Alfalafa

 

[SBenson]

the good news, if any is that i estimate a run rate of around 3k model 3's per week at 22% gross margin is enough to drive gaap profitability. it's entirely possible sometime in the 4th quarter we start hitting weeks where the company is running at a gaap profit, with possibly all weeks in q1 going that way. you may hear that commentary on the call. gaap profitability seems to me a virtual certainty in q1 2018, assuming an exit rate of at least 2-3k vehicles per week. i would think they will discuss that because talking about a half billion dollar loss in a quarter will get old fast!

i thought street estimates were -2.34 on yahoo finance.

What are your estimates for R&D and SG&A for 2018 Q1?

 

[goinfraftw]

Report is out.

My Highlight: Production hell isn't fun, but the company's doing well overall.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

A year behind on m3 is not "doing well". This is far worse than the standard Elon 6 months I was expecting.

 

[austinEV]

A year behind on m3 is not "doing well". This is far worse than the standard Elon 6 months I was expecting.

How are they a year behind? 5k/wk end of Q1 is a quarter behind. Or head of schedule by their original timetable, whichever you like.

 

[bhzmark]

Report is out.

"With respect to the timing for producing 10,000 units per week, it has always been our intention to implement that capacity addition after we have achieved a 5,000 per week run rate."

Did they really waste a whole sentence just to say that they intend to make 5k/week before they make 10k/week?

Did they intend something else by that Sarah Huckabeeism? ("The president has always been perfectly clear [that some tautology]")

 

[Matias]

"

Did they really waste a whole sentence just to say that they intend to make 5k/week before they make 10k/week?

 

[luvb2b]

remind me to answer this after i see the recent 10q, i usually like to get an idea of the breakdown between different divisions if possible.

What are your estimates for R&D and SG&A for 2018 Q1?

 

[luvb2b]

*in progress please wait*
here's a reconciliation of my model vs. the reported earnings. some of the numbers below will shift based on revelations in the 10q (i had to take some assumptions on how to split various segments).

2 big issues:

a. revenue came in 50m under my estimates, from what appears to be dramatically lower asp's 100.9k i estimate vs. around 107.3k last quarter for model s/x. on the call they talked about discounting 90s and mix shift to 75s.

b. opex came in 70m over my estimates.

these 2 items led to a bottom line discrepancy of about 100m (i had overly aggressive tax assumptions vs. what was realized).

i'm very annoyed at ahuja that halfway through the last quarter he says opex "about flat" and then an extra 80m shows up at the end. does he not know? or does he just give bad guidance?

again, if you see items and wonder... how did she get that? it's probably a guess for which i hope the 10q will bring clarity. most likely my model 3 costs are high and my model s/x gross margins for this quarter are too high. lowering gm on s/x raises cogs, which lowers the cogs for the 3.

…

ls veh % total

avg price s+x

avg price model 3

revenue

auto sales ex 3

auto sales mod 3

auto leasing

1 time autopilot

zev credits

total auto

energy storage

solarcity

grohmann

services/other

total revenue

cost of revenue

auto sales ex 3

auto sales mod 3

auto leasing

total auto

energy storage

solarcity

grohmann

services & other

total cost of rev

gross profit

auto gaap ex 3 gm

auto-zev ex 3 gm

model 3 gm

auto-zev incl 3 gm

storage gm

scty gm

grohmann gm

services gm

opex

tesla r&d

tesla sg&a

1time acq cost

solarcity r&d

solarcity sg&a

total opex

op income

interest inc

interest exp

scty interest

other income exp

1time scty gain

pretax income

income tax

net income

non-cont int.

net inc to common

basic shares

diluted shares

diluted gaap eps

gaap net income

- stock based comp

- one time scty

non-gaap net income

non-gaap diluted eps

[TD2] luv q3-17 [/TD2][TD2] Sep-17 [/TD2][TD2] Jun-17 [/TD2][TD2] Dec-16 [/TD2] [TD2] 0.21 [/TD2][TD2] 0.21 [/TD2][TD2] 0.19 [/TD2][TD2] 0.25 [/TD2] [TD2] 108.00 [/TD2][TD2] 100.86 [/TD2][TD2] 107.27 [/TD2][TD2] 103.28 [/TD2] [TD2] 53.00 [/TD2][TD2] 53.00 [/TD2][TD2] 0.00 [/TD2][TD2] 0.00 [/TD2] [TD2]2,212,348[/TD2][TD2]2,064,965[/TD2][TD2]1,913,852[/TD2][TD2]1,719,609[/TD2] [TD2]11,660[/TD2][TD2]11,766[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2]253,395[/TD2][TD2]286,158[/TD2][TD2]272,764[/TD2][TD2]254,674[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]100,000[/TD2][TD2]19,840[/TD2] [TD2] 2,477,403 [/TD2][TD2] 2,362,889 [/TD2][TD2] 2,286,616 [/TD2][TD2] 1,994,123 [/TD2] [TD2]35,000[/TD2][TD2]17,562[/TD2][TD2]15,680[/TD2][TD2]47,285[/TD2] [TD2]285,000[/TD2][TD2]299,943[/TD2][TD2]271,100[/TD2][TD2]84,100[/TD2] [TD2]5,100[/TD2][TD2]5,100[/TD2][TD2]10,200[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2]230,000[/TD2][TD2]299,181[/TD2][TD2]205,961[/TD2][TD2]159,123[/TD2] [TD2] 3,032,503 [/TD2][TD2] 2,984,675 [/TD2][TD2] 2,789,557 [/TD2][TD2] 2,284,631 [/TD2] [TD2]1,686,317[/TD2][TD2]1,587,958[/TD2][TD2]1,472,578[/TD2][TD2]1,372,604[/TD2] [TD2]132,924[/TD2][TD2]167,664[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2]162,990[/TD2][TD2]175,224[/TD2][TD2]175,433[/TD2][TD2]171,818[/TD2] [TD2] 1,982,231 [/TD2][TD2] 1,930,846 [/TD2][TD2] 1,648,011 [/TD2][TD2] 1,544,422 [/TD2] [TD2]36,750[/TD2][TD2]27,328[/TD2][TD2]19,414[/TD2][TD2]60,779[/TD2] [TD2]199,500[/TD2][TD2]209,960[/TD2][TD2]184,348[/TD2][TD2]67,000[/TD2] [TD2]3,825[/TD2][TD2]3,825[/TD2][TD2]7,600[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2]287,500[/TD2][TD2]363,576[/TD2][TD2]263,569[/TD2][TD2]177,152[/TD2] [TD2] 2,509,806 [/TD2][TD2] 2,535,535 [/TD2][TD2] 2,122,942 [/TD2][TD2] 1,849,353 [/TD2] [TD2] 522,697 [/TD2][TD2] 449,140 [/TD2][TD2] 666,615 [/TD2][TD2] 435,278 [/TD2] [TD2]25.0%[/TD2][TD2]25.0%[/TD2][TD2]27.9%[/TD2][TD2]22.6%[/TD2] [TD2]25.0%[/TD2][TD2]25.0%[/TD2][TD2]24.6%[/TD2][TD2]21.8%[/TD2] [TD2]-1040.0%[/TD2][TD2]-1325.0%[/TD2][TD2]0.0%[/TD2][TD2]0.0%[/TD2] [TD2]20.0%[/TD2][TD2]18.3%[/TD2][TD2]24.6%[/TD2][TD2]21.8%[/TD2] [TD2]-5.0%[/TD2][TD2]-55.6%[/TD2][TD2]-23.8%[/TD2][TD2]-28.5%[/TD2] [TD2]30.0%[/TD2][TD2]30.0%[/TD2][TD2]32.0%[/TD2][TD2]20.3%[/TD2] [TD2]25.0%[/TD2][TD2]25.0%[/TD2][TD2]25.5%[/TD2][TD2]0.0%[/TD2] [TD2]-25.0%[/TD2][TD2]-21.5%[/TD2][TD2]-28.0%[/TD2][TD2]-11.3%[/TD2] [TD2]270,000[/TD2][TD2]301,622[/TD2][TD2]324,774[/TD2][TD2]234,960[/TD2] [TD2]470,000[/TD2][TD2]494,773[/TD2][TD2]407,757[/TD2][TD2]365,909[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]18,225[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]15,807[/TD2] [TD2]30,000[/TD2][TD2]30,000[/TD2][TD2]45,000[/TD2][TD2]11,000[/TD2] [TD2]145,000[/TD2][TD2]140,000[/TD2][TD2]130,000[/TD2][TD2]74,300[/TD2] [TD2] 915,000 [/TD2][TD2] 984,620 [/TD2][TD2] 907,531 [/TD2][TD2] 701,976 [/TD2] [TD2] -392,303 [/TD2][TD2] -535,480 [/TD2][TD2] -240,916 [/TD2][TD2] -266,698 [/TD2] [TD2]6,000[/TD2][TD2]5,531[/TD2][TD2]4,785[/TD2][TD2]2,179[/TD2] [TD2]-65,000[/TD2][TD2]-83,658[/TD2][TD2]-54,441[/TD2][TD2]-43,104[/TD2] [TD2]-54,000[/TD2][TD2]-33,451[/TD2][TD2]-54,000[/TD2][TD2]-22,000[/TD2] [TD2]-12,000[/TD2][TD2]-24,390[/TD2][TD2]-41,208[/TD2][TD2]32,524[/TD2] [TD2]-29,500[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]88,700[/TD2] [TD2] -546,803 [/TD2][TD2] -671,448 [/TD2][TD2] -385,780 [/TD2][TD2] -208,399 [/TD2] [TD2]20,000[/TD2][TD2]-285[/TD2][TD2]15,647[/TD2][TD2]11,070[/TD2] [TD2] -566,803 [/TD2][TD2] -671,163 [/TD2][TD2] -401,427 [/TD2][TD2] -219,469 [/TD2] [TD2]-50,000[/TD2][TD2]-51,787[/TD2][TD2]-65,030[/TD2][TD2]-98,132[/TD2] [TD2] -516,803 [/TD2][TD2] -619,376 [/TD2][TD2] -336,397 [/TD2][TD2] -121,337 [/TD2] [TD2]167,500[/TD2][TD2]167,294[/TD2][TD2]165,212[/TD2][TD2]155,024[/TD2] [TD2]167,500[/TD2][TD2]167,294[/TD2][TD2]165,212[/TD2][TD2]155,024[/TD2] [TD2] -3.09 [/TD2][TD2] -3.70 [/TD2][TD2] -2.04 [/TD2][TD2] -0.78 [/TD2] [TD2]-516,803[/TD2][TD2]-619,376[/TD2][TD2]-336,397[/TD2][TD2]-121,337[/TD2] [TD2]120,000[/TD2][TD2]112,653[/TD2][TD2]116,042[/TD2][TD2]87,713[/TD2] [TD2]29,500[/TD2][TD2]18,225[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]-72,920[/TD2] [TD2]-367,303[/TD2][TD2]-488,498[/TD2][TD2]-220,355[/TD2][TD2]-106,544[/TD2] [TD2] -2.19 [/TD2][TD2] -2.92 [/TD2][TD2] -1.33 [/TD2][TD2] -0.69 [/TD2]

 

[Out4aDuck]

luvb2b, thanks much for sharing this analysis!
It looks like the biggest factor is the reduction in average sales price for MS/MX. Customer orders appear to be even more heavily weighted to 75kWh this quarter. And with an increased focus on inventory reduction, we could see the average price come down several percent more in Q4. On the other side of the scale, ZEV sales should recover.

 

[bdy0627]

On the CC, they indicated: "We'll see as we indicated in the letter, increasing margins as we roll into Q4 and then into Q1."