How many total cars will Tesla deliver in the final quarter of 2017?
Please feel free to share your estimates by model as a comment.
Please feel free to share your estimates by model as a comment.
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2017 Q4 Deliveries
- Thread starter ValueAnalyst
- Start date
30,000 Total
14,000 Model S
13,500 Model X
2,500 Model 3
14,000 Model S
13,500 Model X
2,500 Model 3
14K Model S
12K Model X
2268* Model 3
12K Model X
2268* Model 3
*note: this number is 2 x hell 
I'd say it's more likely than not that Tesla has already delivered more than 1,000 Model 3's in 4Q.
TaoJones
Beyond Driven
Optimistically, and wx permitting, 30,001 (14.5K S, 13.5K X, 2.001K 3).
M3 deliveries are certainly happening (see Centinela).
Whether M3s are currently being produced at a rate of 500/week is another question.
M3 deliveries are certainly happening (see Centinela).
Whether M3s are currently being produced at a rate of 500/week is another question.
What is your basis? If Tesla goes on holiday on December 23rd, there is little time to deliver Model 3s. If October and November deliveries were ~500 cars, then >500 more in two weeks? That would be great if true. Expecting January to "knock our socks off" in Model 3 deliveries. I think the big surprise for Q4 will be Model S and X deliveries. All markets are on fire, although China, after a fast start, has been quiet (no reports) for several months. Perhaps all those new Model 3 employees in Fremont were assigned to S/X lines until battery packs for Model 3 began to arrive in volume.
Unlikely that Tesla will shut down production last week of quarter-end. If things are going well, maybe first week of January. Pics/videos/articles on Fremont show increased activity. Should increase some more in the coming days/weeks.
I normally don't believe in supernatural explanations like that, but as your username is a slang for "money" in my language, I'll take this as a sign.14K Model S
12K Model X
2268* Model 3
*note: this number is 2 x hell
S+X should hit 100k this year and judging by how crazy good Q4 has been so far, I think it will. So 26k+ for the big boys as we need that much to get to 100.
For model 3 I am in the 1500-2000 camp on deliveries and hoping for exiting the year at a 1k+/week production rate.
For model 3 I am in the 1500-2000 camp on deliveries and hoping for exiting the year at a 1k+/week production rate.
sweter
Member
bambam4171
Member
I thought this quarter they had to change S and X production lines to run them on the same line? So I would estimate that that line is no where near 25000k
They reduced a shift, moving workers to the Model 3 line, and guided for 10% less production on the S/X. So around 23k. Personally I am banking on them selling down inventory and delivering significantly more cars than they produced.
We don't know if they kept the reduced rate throughout the quarter.
Last week of production will have least impact on Q4 due to prep and delivery scheduling. Just on time delivery could lead to loss of good will due to any delay, along with decline in morale for those working through the holiday (especially post-hell).
Shutting down the line down but keeping DS/OA working (potentially from home for set up) to deliver the finished cars would be more advantageous, and not impact as greatly those who have been in manufacturing hell.
Motivation:
Factory: "Vacation starts when we run out of parts"
DS: "Vacation starts when that lot is empty"
Historical question: How long did it take for Oprah's 276 audience members to leave with their new cars (with zero planning/ documentation)?
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