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2017 Q4 Deliveries

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by ValueAnalyst, Dec 14, 2017.

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How Many Total Cars Will Tesla Deliver in 4Q17?

Poll closed Dec 29, 2017.
  1. < 25,000

    2 vote(s)
    1.6%
  2. 25,000 - 26,000

    12 vote(s)
    9.3%
  3. 26,000 - 27,000

    18 vote(s)
    14.0%
  4. 27,000 - 28,000

    29 vote(s)
    22.5%
  5. 28,000 - 29,000

    33 vote(s)
    25.6%
  6. 29,000 - 30,000

    13 vote(s)
    10.1%
  7. > 30,000

    22 vote(s)
    17.1%
  1. ValueAnalyst

    ValueAnalyst Closed

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    How many total cars will Tesla deliver in the final quarter of 2017?

    Please feel free to share your estimates by model as a comment.
     
  2. schonelucht

    schonelucht Active Member

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    Nederland
    13 000 Model S
    13 000 Model X
    1 800 Model 3
     
    • Like x 2
    • Informative x 1
  3. jbcarioca

    jbcarioca Active Member

    Joined:
    Feb 3, 2015
    Messages:
    3,608
    1,500 3
    12,500 S
    13,000. X
     
  4. EinSV

    EinSV Active Member

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    #4 EinSV, Dec 14, 2017
    Last edited: Dec 14, 2017
    29501
    15500 S
    12000 X
    2001 3
     
    • Like x 1
  5. ValueAnalyst

    ValueAnalyst Closed

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    30,000 Total

    14,000 Model S
    13,500 Model X
    2,500 Model 3
     
    • Like x 3
    • Love x 1
  6. ZsoZso

    ZsoZso Member

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    Brampton, Ontario
    14K Model S
    12K Model X
    2268* Model 3



    *note: this number is 2 x hell ;)
     
    • Funny x 6
    • Like x 2
  7. Starno

    Starno Active Member

    Joined:
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    Total - 29 830

    13930 - Model X
    13560 - Model S
    2340 - Model 3
     
    • Funny x 1
  8. doctoxics

    doctoxics Member

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    Models S and X will top 26,000. Model 3 might top 1,000.
     
    • Like x 1
  9. ValueAnalyst

    ValueAnalyst Closed

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    I'd say it's more likely than not that Tesla has already delivered more than 1,000 Model 3's in 4Q.
     
    • Like x 2
  10. TaoJones

    TaoJones Beyond Driven

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    Optimistically, and wx permitting, 30,001 (14.5K S, 13.5K X, 2.001K 3).

    M3 deliveries are certainly happening (see Centinela).

    Whether M3s are currently being produced at a rate of 500/week is another question.
     
    • Like x 1
  11. doctoxics

    doctoxics Member

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    What is your basis? If Tesla goes on holiday on December 23rd, there is little time to deliver Model 3s. If October and November deliveries were ~500 cars, then >500 more in two weeks? That would be great if true. Expecting January to "knock our socks off" in Model 3 deliveries. I think the big surprise for Q4 will be Model S and X deliveries. All markets are on fire, although China, after a fast start, has been quiet (no reports) for several months. Perhaps all those new Model 3 employees in Fremont were assigned to S/X lines until battery packs for Model 3 began to arrive in volume.
     
  12. ValueAnalyst

    ValueAnalyst Closed

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    Unlikely that Tesla will shut down production last week of quarter-end. If things are going well, maybe first week of January. Pics/videos/articles on Fremont show increased activity. Should increase some more in the coming days/weeks.
     
  13. mrdoubleb

    mrdoubleb Active Member

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    Budapest, Hungary
    I normally don't believe in supernatural explanations like that, but as your username is a slang for "money" in my language, I'll take this as a sign.
     
    • Funny x 3
  14. mrdoubleb

    mrdoubleb Active Member

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    S+X should hit 100k this year and judging by how crazy good Q4 has been so far, I think it will. So 26k+ for the big boys as we need that much to get to 100.

    For model 3 I am in the 1500-2000 camp on deliveries and hoping for exiting the year at a 1k+/week production rate.
     
    • Like x 1
  15. sweter

    sweter Member

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    London, UK / Wroclaw, POL
    26k S/X
    2.3k 3
    = 28.3k TOTAL
     
  16. bambam4171

    bambam4171 Member

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    I thought this quarter they had to change S and X production lines to run them on the same line? So I would estimate that that line is no where near 25000k
     
  17. schonelucht

    schonelucht Active Member

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    They reduced a shift, moving workers to the Model 3 line, and guided for 10% less production on the S/X. So around 23k. Personally I am banking on them selling down inventory and delivering significantly more cars than they produced.
     
    • Like x 1
  18. ValueAnalyst

    ValueAnalyst Closed

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    We don't know if they kept the reduced rate throughout the quarter.
     
  19. mongo

    mongo Well-Known Member

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    Michigan
    Last week of production will have least impact on Q4 due to prep and delivery scheduling. Just on time delivery could lead to loss of good will due to any delay, along with decline in morale for those working through the holiday (especially post-hell).

    Shutting down the line down but keeping DS/OA working (potentially from home for set up) to deliver the finished cars would be more advantageous, and not impact as greatly those who have been in manufacturing hell.

    Motivation:
    Factory: "Vacation starts when we run out of parts"
    DS: "Vacation starts when that lot is empty"

    Historical question: How long did it take for Oprah's 276 audience members to leave with their new cars (with zero planning/ documentation)?
     
    • Funny x 1
  20. EinSV

    EinSV Active Member

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    Revised estimate:

    28201
    14700 S
    11500 X
    2001 3
     

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