Fact or Fiction?
This article is interesting and would be wonderful it comes to fruition.
Why Nissan Has A Trick Up Its Sleeve With The New LEAF
And now the juiciest part…
Nissan’s trick up its sleeve can be explained like this:
“The best selling car in each segment is not the best car, but the best value for the money.”
I think it is undisputed that
the best EV for the city is the BMW i3 and the best long-journey EV is the Tesla Model S, yet they are both being
outsold by the Renault Zoe (in Europe, where the Zoe is available). A more humble offer, but with a much more reasonable price, the Zoe is Europe’s top selling electric car.
And between the i3 and Model S extremes, and with the ability to go in and out of the city for the occasional long trip, we have several players — Hyundai Ioniq, VW e-Golf, Chevrolet Bolt … and the 2018 Nissan LEAF. These models are all basically going for the same customers. But…
After the first LEAF sales peak (first 4 to 6 months of 2018), Nissan will start to play its cards. Because the new car is based on an old platform, Nissan will have plenty of space to make discounts, undercutting the competition even further, maybe going into the mid-$20,000 arena. And this could last until…
Late 2018, when the new long-range version shows up (can LG Chem, the new supplier, cram 60 kWh into the old platform?). That can add the “wow” factor that the 40 kWh version misses, as the larger battery will allow Bolt/Tesla range levels (225–245 miles EPA). Additionally, the TMS that comes with LG technology will not only increase consumer confidence, but finally open the door to those much anticipated 150 kW fast chargers.
Now, imagine in December 2018 a 60 kWh LEAF with 230 miles of range and 150 kW-rated charging capability for … (drums rolling) … $36,000!
Tasty, isn’t it?
It has been Nissan’s tradition to introduce longer-range versions at the price of the previous most expensive version, so expect the same to happen here.
But Nissan’s Royal Flush comes next, after all of this. In order to give some breathing space for the “old” 40 kWh version, the Japanese carmaker will drop prices of this older version even further, maybe even into the low $20,000 price class (before incentives), becoming then the first legacy OEM to reach electric price parity with ICE models in this segment.
If this does happen — and considering the low development costs of the 2018 LEAF, there is no reasonable reason to expect otherwise — 2019 will be an even better sales year than 2018, because on the one hand there’s the 60 kWh version going for higher-level customers, and on the other, value for money (bargain) hunters jumping all over the
cheap 40 kWh LEAF.
As for sales themselves, expect this new v1.3 LEAF to reach over 100,000 units next year (maybe 150,000?), losing only to the Model 3 in the 2018 Best Seller competition. Then, 2019 will build on that performance, maybe with a 20% increase YoY, ending its career with growing sales (as the current one is doing).
In Short:
Although not as flashy as the Tesla Model 3, the new Nissan LEAF will have the advantage of being cheaper and a true mass market car.
The LEAF will be the first legacy OEM model to reach price parity with its gas/diesel counterparts — if not in late 2018, certainly in 2019.