How many combined Model S/X vehicles will Tesla deliver in 2018?
Please feel free to share your breakdown estimate as a comment.
Please feel free to share your breakdown estimate as a comment.
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2018 Model S/X
- Thread starter ValueAnalyst
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kingjamez
Member
I see the popularity of the Model 3 stealing some of the thunder from Model S sales, but also propping up Model S and X sales because of better brand recognition for a general wash in Model S and X sales.
bdy0627
Active Member
Model S 55,000; limited by Model 3, but supported by expanding Supercharger/sales/service network and brand value
Model X 65,000; no Osborne effect from Model 3, significantly larger TAM vs. Model S, and superior tech
I also expect some interior refresh, and maybe some battery chemistry improvements, for both some time in mid-18.
Model X 65,000; no Osborne effect from Model 3, significantly larger TAM vs. Model S, and superior tech
I also expect some interior refresh, and maybe some battery chemistry improvements, for both some time in mid-18.
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Model X takes off in China, Model S holds its own. Expanding markets in South Korea and Brazil. Germany gets on board more than last year. Battery and aesthetic refresh late 2018 have minimal effect on sales this year. 105K.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
Tiger
Active Member
@JonMc The sales will go up humongously after interior refresh, new suspension, and increased range. If Tesla is smart, they will do these updates incrementally, beginning with increased range especially for winter. Also those little things.
DurandalAI
Member
Optimistically I’m hoping for a 20-25% YOY growth, but my more conservative guess is 15-20% due to some slowing of sales in more mature markets. I do not expect any slowing of sales, even with M3 cannibalization as M3 will increase brand awareness of Tesla and be a net increase. So I’m betting on 120k+.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
I'm thinking an increase because anyone in 2018 wanting a 3 won't be able to get one if they haven't already reserved. You want a Tesla in 2018 without an existing reservation it has to be an S or X.
Reciprocity
Active Member
I don't believe demand is issue, as you noted there are tons of less mature markets that will mature and new market still to be opened. There is also a growing customer base in the US that will be trading in for new cards after leases are up. What I don't get is how are they going to make more then 100k or so. I know they have had weeks where they made 2400 which would be 120k per year, but they recently cut back production which is mind boggling considering the tax credits will start to phase out in less then 9 months. You would think that uses wants to go full speed to stuff the inventory ahead of that, but maybe I'm missing something. If Tesla had an S/X line and a model 3 line, you would think they would want both going as fast as possible.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
Given incentives like cheap financing rates in Europe, referral $1k incentives, free Supercharging and such demand is not functionally infinite like Model 3 right now.
If it was there would be no need to pull any demand levers.
No demand levers need to be pulled for Model 3.
Elon can act like the Model 3 Nazi and still be production constrained.
DurandalAI
Member
IIRC, they are running two shifts for the S&X lines, where before they had been running 3 lines. I would imagine they could start up a 3rd shift and boost production up to 30% if they can find enough quality candidates, and the demand for the vehicles.
Tesla won’t be able to significantly grow production unless it makes major investments on the S/X line. None are planned and I think management would prefer to grow 3 capacity (with a view towards the Y) Therefore I think deliveries will be naturally capped to a production ceiling of 100k give or take 10%.
It’s premature to discuss demand at this point for the S and X. There is more than enough of it and changing fiscal incentives in the US, Norway and the Netherlands will make sure that remains for at least full 2018.
It’s premature to discuss demand at this point for the S and X. There is more than enough of it and changing fiscal incentives in the US, Norway and the Netherlands will make sure that remains for at least full 2018.
Management noted on the last earnings call that, while the line was producing 2,000 per week with three shifts previously, it was as of Sep/Oct producing 1,800 (going to 2,000 units throughout 2018) with only two shifts. I'm not sure if I agree with you that production is capped at "100,000 give or take 10%" as is.
dc_h
Active Member
Buddyroe
Active Member
No matter what, it's sad that the X is so bad that a full size sedan, a dying car type in America, outsells it.
Had there been no FWDs, auto presenting front doors, or HEPA filter, the X would start around $55k and be 80% of S and X sales. Tesla could have raised the price of the S by 15% due to being able to sell as many Xs as they could make.
Not to mention the car would have been in production a year sooner.
Had there been no FWDs, auto presenting front doors, or HEPA filter, the X would start around $55k and be 80% of S and X sales. Tesla could have raised the price of the S by 15% due to being able to sell as many Xs as they could make.
Not to mention the car would have been in production a year sooner.
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