2018: Will Tesla US Deliveries Top 1% US Market Share?

[RobStark]

Automotive News

Edmunds forecasts U.S. sales of 16.8 million in 2018. Cox Automotive last week said it projects the market to be 16.7 million, 100,000 more than it thought before the tax-reform bill was approved.

The Edmunds and Cox forecasts mirror a projection from Toyota this month that 2018 would be in the "mid- to upper 16 million" range. The National Automobile Dealers Association projects sales of 16.7 million, which it said would still mark a great year for the industry.
________________________________________________________________________________________

Tesla will need a grand total of 167k-169k US deliveries in 2018 to top 1% US Automotive market share for the year. That should put Tesla above Acura and just below Buick in US market share all else being equal. In 2016 Buick delivered 229,631 vehicles and is on pace to deliver ~215k vehicles for 2017. So Tesla will need about that many to top Buick.

What say you?

 

[Todd Burch]

With X/S deliveries staying around 100K that’s only 67k Model 3s, or slightly more than 1k/week.

I’d say it’s a shoo-in.

 

[RubberToe]

Easy peasy. A more appropriate poll would be: Will the Model 3 be one of the top ten selling cars?

RT

 

[RubberToe]

I'll start a new thread in the Model 3 forum for that. Elantra sales (#10 in September) totaled 143,000, so project 186,000 year end. Tesla making 5,000 per week with 50% U.S. gets 120,000. All sales are U.S. till much later in 2018. If Tesla gets above 5,000 per week during 2018, I think they crack the top 10. Will be interested to watch them "climbing the hill".

RT

 

[McMuggets]

Many of these "deliveries" from other car makers are sitting on dealership lots. Tesla's deliveries are probably 98-99% accurate, because they only count it when it goes to the end consumer. This being said... Tesla could possibly go over 1% US market share in 2018.

 

[RobStark]

With X/S deliveries staying around 100K that’s only 67k Model 3s, or slightly more than 1k/week.

I’d say it’s a shoo-in.

100k Gen II GLOBAL deliveries.
~45k US Deliveries.

Need about ~123k US deliveries of Model 3.
I agree it should be a slam dunk.

Then again, I also thought 20k 2017 Model 3 US deliveries was a slam dunk.

 

[RobStark]

Many of these "deliveries" from other car makers are sitting on dealership lots. Tesla's deliveries are probably 98-99% accurate, because they only count it when it goes to the end consumer. This being said... Tesla could possibly go over 1% US market share in 2018.

Dealer inventory is roughly static. It does not grow exponentially.

OEM report Money sales on their income statements once vehicles sold to dealers.

When they report Unit sales to the press those are registrations. They collect data from their dealers as to what has been sold.

 

[SebastianR]

Yes, but I think that 2019 could be harder (unless they significantly up their production): Reason - 2018 should be pretty much US deliveries only. 2019 Europe & China will (need to) ramp. So 1% US is possible, if the ramp works well, there are no supplier surprises and international shipping for the Model 3 only starts ramping towards the end of 2018...

 

[2virgule5]

Considering most of model 3 deliveries will be on US soil - international does not start before end of 2018 - more than 120k M3 seems doable.

 

[RobStark]

Yes, but I think that 2019 could be harder (unless they significantly up their production)

I think there is a 99% chance Tesla significantly increases 2019 production over 2018 production.

I also think there is a 60% chance 2019 total US automotive sales are at least 300k units below 2018 units.

 

[SebastianR]

I think there is a 99% chance Tesla significantly increases 2019 production over 2018 production.

I also think there is a 60% chance 2019 total US automotive sales are at least 300k units below 2018 units.

I agree in principle. However, I don't think the 1% is a given. We will see how much the 2019 production increase actually will be (the optimist in me hopes Tesla will hit the 10k in 2018). And of course we will see what the 2019 total market will look like. Again, the optimist in me is hoping that more people will postpone their new vehicle purchase until they see the right EV come along (or go for a Model 3 immediately) but we will see.

In a "perfect storm" scenario in 2019, cross-over/van/CUV buyers wait for the Model Y, pick-up buyers will postpone their F150 purchase to buy the Tesla pickup which is demoed/shown in 2018; Model 3 is ramping perfectly and killing the sedan market while the Model X/S keep eating away at the luxury market. The Leaf and the Bolt make strides to capture market share in the bottom part of the (commuter) car market and Lyft/Uber compel more folks to stop buying cars altogether. And maybe interests will rise slowly and make financing of new cars harder convincing people to keep driving their cars longer. In such a scenario Tesla might even inch higher than 1%. However, this all is delusional dreaming at this point

 

[dalalsid]

That's only 170k cars. With 50k s/x, that's only 120k model 3. We are in a world of hurt for the stock if they can't deliver 120k model 3s in 2018

 

[SebastianR]

That's only 170k cars. With 50k s/x, that's only 120k model 3. We are in a world of hurt for the stock if they can't deliver 120k model 3s in 2018

Keep in mind that Tesla needs to deliver to the rest of the world, too... So if the US is roughly 30% to 40% of Tesla's delivery (I hope it drops long-term to even less as delivery in the rest of the world ramp up) the 170k is starting to look less achievable in the short-term...

 

[arcus]

I'll offer my vote of confidence as well and say yes!

 

[dalalsid]

Keep in mind that Tesla needs to deliver to the rest of the world, too... So if the US is roughly 30% to 40% of Tesla's delivery (I hope it drops long-term to even less as delivery in the rest of the world ramp up) the 170k is starting to look less achievable in the short-term...

Roughly 0 Model 3s will go to the rest of the world in the first 120k. US will be 100% of Model 3 deliveries for some time.

 

[AZ Desert Driver]

I notice that the $7,500 tax credit seems to have zero impact on this delivery discussion. I would have expected some surge in Q1 and Q2 to capture much of this, influencing the count. Folks smarter than me can have intelligent comments, but what about the credit?

 

[dalalsid]

I notice that the $7,500 tax credit seems to have zero impact on this delivery discussion. I would have expected some surge in Q1 and Q2 to capture much of this, influencing the count. Folks smarter than me can have intelligent comments, but what about the credit?

I dont think that matters. The 2018 reservations are spoken for. If anything, Tesla might game the system delivering fewer than expected (maybe shuttle some off to Canada or something) to make sure more people can qualify for the tax credit.

 

[AZ Desert Driver]

would not gaming the system influence the delivery count? Yes - every Model 3 for the next year is spoken for - however many Tesla can make. But was the question not Deliveries, influenced by gaming?

 

[RobStark]

would not gaming the system influence the delivery count? Yes - every Model 3 for the next year is spoken for - however many Tesla can make. But was the question not Deliveries, influenced by gaming?

Gaming the system means shifting deliveries from Q2 to Q3 or maybe Q3 to Q4. I doubt we will see shifting from Q4 to Q1 2019.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

Gaming the system means shifting deliveries from Q2 to Q3 or maybe Q3 to Q4. I doubt we will see shifting from Q4 to Q1 2019.

Speaking of quarters...has anyone seen fourth quarter numbers yet?