2020 Price Drop? [Speculation]

[firebird8302]

Every time the Federal tax incentive gets cut, so does the price of the Model 3.

Is the Vegas odds favorite an $1,875 price cut come Jan 2020?

We took delivery of P3D+ in August and are scheduled to take delivery of a P3D- in late December. I'm hoping part the 7 day return period falls after the new year just in case there is a significant price drop.

 

[No42]

I think whoever announces the price cuts, will take into account the 7 days return window

 

[Adam3]

My crystal ball says we won't see the price drop until late January / Early Feb. Maybe later in the year if demand is still high.

 

[firebird8302]

I think whoever announces the price cuts, will take into account the 7 days return window

I bet you're right. If I remember correctly, the July price cut was announced around July 16th.

 

[OCR1]

With zero cars in inventory and no guarantee that the existing backlog can be fulfilled by the end of the year I doubt Tesla is thinking about price cuts. Beginning in January they will stop producing cars for North America and go back to fulfilling international demand so there likely will not be any available inventory in North America until around March.

The Model 3 has gained enough credibility within the auto industry that it appears demand is no longer an issue, as long as their supply capacity remains about the same. And if demand softens for the Model 3 they will just move resources to building the Model Y, which is expected to outsell the 3,S, and X combined.

 

[YusufT]

How did you find a stealth model 3 that’s the real question

 

[firebird8302]

How did you find a stealth model 3 that’s the real question

Someone on this forum said there was a batch of Stealth's heading for Texas. I contacted the Austin showroom and they confirmed it. The SA email me a link to buy it. The link also had a VIN already generated.

 

[AdamVIP]

Well they have raised the price of a Performance about 2k since last August so they may be able to drop it 2k come January.

 

[YusufT]

Someone on this forum said there was a batch of Stealth's heading for Texas. I contacted the Austin showroom and they confirmed it. The SA email me a link to buy it. The link also had a VIN already generated.

Oh wow very lucky congrats. What’s the price difference with the P3D+?

 

[firebird8302]

Oh wow very lucky congrats. What’s the price difference with the P3D+?

The Stealth is $2,000 more than the LR AWD, so $6,500 less than the P3D+.

 

[Evergreeen]

no price drop unless demand stalls

 

[unibrowser]

The Stealth is $2,000 more than the LR AWD, so $6,500 less than the P3D+.

The P3D- is $6,500 less if you go with 18” aero wheels, $5,000 less of you option the 19” sport wheels.

 

[newtonfb]

of course there is going to be a price drop soon. Once the Model Y is available..nobody is going to chose the the 3 over the Y at the same price. They will drop the 3 because
1.Tax credit
2. Model Y
3. Its actually getting cheaper for them to build with battery cost going down.

 

[OCR1]

What we don’t really know is how Model Y will impact Model 3. The more resources they share the easier it will be for them to reallocate Model 3 resources to Model Y as demand shifts. If they can dynamically allocate resources according to demand I could see the demand for Model Y easily picking up for any slack in Model 3 demand.

The tax credit is down to $1,875, so not a lot of money at this point. I don’t see it having much impact.

 

[kmstivers]

of course there is going to be a price drop soon. Once the Model Y is available..nobody is going to chose the the 3 over the Y at the same price. They will drop the 3 because
1.Tax credit
2. Model Y
3. Its actually getting cheaper for them to build with battery cost going down.

The tax credit expires 12/31/19. It’s my understanding that no deliveries will be eligible for tax credit past this date. I know there’s a bill in Congress to reinstate credit, but they could sit on it forever and never vote, so who knows?

 

[TydalForce]

. Once the Model Y is available..nobody is going to chose the the 3 over the Y at the same price.

Except some of us don't want an SUV and prefer a sedan

 

[molster]

there was already a big price cut, there will not be one

Except some of us don't want an SUV and prefer a sedan

agree, The Y looks ugly compared to the 3, I dont get the love for SUVs myself so agree, model 3 will still do fine

 

[Evergreeen]

Except some of us don't want an SUV and prefer a sedan

Plus there's huge overseas demand where they can ship the model 3s should us demand drop. No price drop!

 

[OCR1]

Except some of us don't want an SUV and prefer a sedan

True. I don’t care for SUVs personally and have no interest in one. But no doubt our country loves them, and even Elon has stated he expects to sell more Model Y vehicles than all other Tesla cars combined.

Right now a Model Y LR AWD starts at $52,000. Model 3 LR AWD starts at $48,490. So about $3,500 extra to get a comparable SUV.

But the Model Y range is only 280 miles while Model 3 is 322 miles. So there are clearly trade offs. Many will choose the SUV, but an extra $3,500 and significantly less range is a big trade off.

 

[jonquiljo]

True. I don’t care for SUVs personally and have no interest in one. But no doubt our country loves them, and even Elon has stated he expects to sell more Model Y vehicles than all other Tesla cars combined.

Right now a Model Y LR AWD starts at $52,000. Model 3 LR AWD starts at $48,490. So about $3,500 extra to get a comparable SUV.

But the Model Y range is only 280 miles while Model 3 is 322 miles. So there are clearly trade offs. Many will choose the SUV, but an extra $3,500 and significantly less range is a big trade off.

I have never understood the demand in the US for SUVs and crossovers. SUV's maybe if you have a pack of kids, but crossovers really don't do much more for you than a sedan. So when it comes to Model 3 vs Model Y, I think the Model 3 had a minimal advantage for people wanting a larger car and disadvantage with 40 miles less range, etc. Then again, I have not seen a Model Y up close.

When it comes to dropping the price of a Model 3 next quarter or year, I suspect that it will not happen. I agree that the $1875 tax credit is not a major issue with most buyers. If you're going to spend well over $50K on a car, then a thousand or two less is not a big deal.

The problem with Teslas in general is that they are well beyond the affordability for the majority of Americans. Most people are struggling to get by, and a $50,000 car is not something they will deal with. We are all fortunate that we can afford these cars. Most people cannot. It will require a major effort for new incentives from our government to make bEVs a people's car. So dropping the price a thousand or two still excludes a good proportion of the people in this country.

The same is true in other countries. There is a limited market of sorts. People just can't afford these things in 2020. So I have no idea what Tesla will do in the future. For now, it will be the "haves" and the "have nots."