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2020 Shipping Movements

Fred42

Active Member
Dec 24, 2018
1,020
2,805
Pennsylvania
I understand they were shutting down the Shanghai plant for a couple of weeks at the beginning of the quarter. That makes sense if they were having to retool to make cars for the EU. So, if they start up again mid October and have the capacity for 3,000 cars a week, they could probably make 12,000 cars for the EU in time to get them on boats for Europe.

Would you please go into a little more detail for the shipping time from Shanghai? It's only about an extra 4,000 miles (many choke points I guess) so it doesn't seem like it should take more than twice as long - I'm not doubting you since you've probably forgotten more about shipping than I'll ever know. I'm just curious why.
There was a report that the Shanghai plant will work through the Chinese national holiday after shutting down the last ten days in September. I can't say I know that's true.
 

Mr Miserable

Supporting Member
Jul 8, 2019
4,765
8,841
UK
I have received a tip that a 'big one' will be turning up at Pier 80 later this month.
Now I can't identify the ship from that description however I suspect we may be looking at a vessel that is either wider than 32.3m or longer than 200m, or even both.
That doesn't narrow it down much.
'Big ones' in the past have included DONG A GLAUCOS which at 232m long is big and BROOKLANDS which at 38m wide is also big.
The thing is that this source has a surprisingly good batting average - he just "doesn't know anything about boats" :)
GLOVIS SAFETY is Dong size.
Anyway I have asked our ace reporter to see if he can get a name.....

EDIT: Another ship (which for some reason or other I had discounted earlier) which could fit the bill is GLOVIS SPRING.
 
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Medved_77

TM3 SR+ | MSM+Black | No FSD
Jan 20, 2020
2,042
2,047
Scotland
I have received a tip that a 'big one' will be turning up at Pier 80 later this month.
Now I can't identify the ship from that description however I suspect we may be looking at a vessel that is either wider than 32.3m or longer than 200m, or even both.
That doesn't narrow it down much.
'Big ones' in the past have included DONG A GLAUCOS which at 232m long is big and BROOKLANDS which at 38m wide is also big.
The thing is that this source has a surprisingly good batting average - he just "doesn't know anything about boats" :)
GLOVIS SAFETY is Dong size.
Anyway I have asked our ace reporter to see if he can get a name.....

EDIT: Another ship (which for some reason or other I had discounted earlier) which could fit the bill is GLOVIS SPRING.
So we could see the big Dong exit the canal via Colon in Q4?

(sorry)
 

Fred42

Active Member
Dec 24, 2018
1,020
2,805
Pennsylvania
There was a report that the Shanghai plant will work through the Chinese national holiday after shutting down the last ten days in September. I can't say I know that's true.
Shanghai factory flyover. It appears that Model 3 production has resumed; the test track has lots of vehicles, and there is a row of car carriers lined up to accept deliveries.
posted by member @tinyrodent on October 3, 2020
 

Wuddie

Member
Sep 18, 2020
96
66
Halesowen
So all things being Well, when do you expect another boat load of Model 3's to hit the UK.. My order has been royally screwed up by Tesla and now i have to wait for the next shipment,
I Should have collected it Last week!
 

Mr Miserable

Supporting Member
Jul 8, 2019
4,765
8,841
UK
Just a quick update on the 'big one' coming to Pier 80.
My source has now named this ship DONINGTON.
That is totally credible since she is nearby heading for Portland at the moment. She is big at 38m wide.
Significantly I'm led to believe that she will arrive at Pier 80 as early as next week and certainly before RCC ANTWERP.
The 1st ship of Q4, VIKING DESTINY, is presently enroute to Benicia (other side of the SF Bay) and will arrive there around midnight local tonight. She is due to load at Pier 80 on Friday morning. Her destination remains undetermined at present and I'm not finding anything to support the idea of her coming to Europe. (Likewise for DONINGTON at the moment)
I'm still keeping an eye on Shanghai but there is no sign of any EU bound Tesla ships at the moment.
 

howardoark

Member
Jul 17, 2017
64
15
Oakland, California
Tesla can ship cars to Asia almost for free I would imagine as otherwise the boats would go back empty. So size doesn't mean much in terms of how many cars are being put on the boat if that's where it's going. The biggest cost is probably the loading time. It is a monster
 
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MrJaffro

Member
Oct 7, 2020
32
13
London
Feel like I've been lurking a long time with nothing to contribute. So firstly, thanks massively Mr Miserable and others for such insight into shipping and delivery movements. Amazing learning material

I noticed on the satellite image for 07-Oct the pier 80, having some blurry white adding in.. is this what we expect to see when they're queueing up cars for loading? This seems to fit with the first load of the quarter being Friday morning?

Compare daily satellite images of Tesla production locations
 

Runescom

Member
Jul 27, 2020
49
16
Netherlands
Feel like I've been lurking a long time with nothing to contribute. So firstly, thanks massively Mr Miserable and others for such insight into shipping and delivery movements. Amazing learning material

I noticed on the satellite image for 07-Oct the pier 80, having some blurry white adding in.. is this what we expect to see when they're queueing up cars for loading? This seems to fit with the first load of the quarter being Friday morning?

Compare daily satellite images of Tesla production locations

Is it possible that the VIKING DESTINY coming to Europe or will it be the Rcc Antwerp? What is possible first Q4 boat at Zeebrugge?
 

Mr Miserable

Supporting Member
Jul 8, 2019
4,765
8,841
UK
Feel like I've been lurking a long time with nothing to contribute. So firstly, thanks massively Mr Miserable and others for such insight into shipping and delivery movements. Amazing learning material

I noticed on the satellite image for 07-Oct the pier 80, having some blurry white adding in.. is this what we expect to see when they're queueing up cars for loading? This seems to fit with the first load of the quarter being Friday morning?

Compare daily satellite images of Tesla production locations

In the past the dates on these satellite photos has come under doubt and this one is a bit suspect too. I don't believe this was taken today.
The potential load looks a little too small for an EU shipment however I have received a report of many transporters with EU Model 3's being moved to Pier 80.
 

Mr Miserable

Supporting Member
Jul 8, 2019
4,765
8,841
UK
Is it possible that the VIKING DESTINY coming to Europe or will it be the Rcc Antwerp? What is possible first Q4 boat at Zeebrugge?

To be honest I'm a little surprised that we haven't had positive indications of an EU shipment already, especially as we should be seeing a record Q4. I still have no positive indications that VIKING DESTINY is heading to Europe, nor for DONINGTON.
It would appear that business is declining for car carriers at the moment and some ships are possibly going to be laid up.
 

Arran

Member
Feb 4, 2020
166
112
Southampton
To be honest I'm a little surprised that we haven't had positive indications of an EU shipment already, especially as we should be seeing a record Q4. I still have no positive indications that VIKING DESTINY is heading to Europe, nor for DONINGTON.
It would appear that business is declining for car carriers at the moment and some ships are possibly going to be laid up.

Was the potential for trains from China squashed?
 

Mr Miserable

Supporting Member
Jul 8, 2019
4,765
8,841
UK
Latest news from Pier 80.
VIKING DESTINY will arrive alongside Pier 80 later this evening (local time) but will depart Friday evening.
This short 24hr visit can be regarded as confirmation that she is certainly not EU bound and is most likely to be heading to Shanghai. (or maybe even Canada!).
The next ship expected to arrive at Pier 80 next Tuesday night will be DONINGTON.

Meanwhile across the Pacific, I am also keeping an eye on GLOVIS SIRIUS which has arrived alongside in Shanghai.
 

Mr Miserable

Supporting Member
Jul 8, 2019
4,765
8,841
UK
As forecast, the VIKING DESTINY is now alongside Pier 80 - the 1st ship of Q4.
She is due to depart around 8pm tonight however her destination still remains to be determined, although it's almost certain not to be Zeebrugge and more likely to be Shanghai. The ever-helpful San Francisco Gazette reports her destination as 'unknown'.

Speaking of Shanghai, I was disappointed to strike the GLOVIS SIRIUS off my list of possibles - the search continues....

I note however that the HOEGH KOBE is scheduled into Shanghai on Sunday. This ship is scheduled to arrive in Zeebrugge on 16 Nov as part of a scheduled service. The question is would Tesla use a scheduled ship or go for their usual whole ship charter...
 

Mr Miserable

Supporting Member
Jul 8, 2019
4,765
8,841
UK
It's still the wee small hours in San Francisco at the moment and there appears to be confusion regarding the departure time of VIKING DESTINY.
Originally she planned to depart around 6pm tonight however yesterday that was put back to 8pm. Now there are mixed messages of a possible further delay. No doubt all will become clear when the day shift pitch up but at the moment there is a very grumpy Captain.
 

howardoark

Member
Jul 17, 2017
64
15
Oakland, California
found on Twitter
Ej2PpGtVoAAovzE
 

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