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2020 Shipping Movements

Discussion in 'The UK and Ireland' started by Mr Miserable, Dec 31, 2019.

  1. Mr Miserable

    Mr Miserable Supporting Member

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    RCC AMSTERDAM preparing to depart to Balboa ETA 26 Nov
     
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  2. Mr Miserable

    Mr Miserable Supporting Member

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    #6802 Mr Miserable, Nov 18, 2020
    Last edited: Nov 18, 2020
    TRITON ACE At midday she was N46.7 W14.2 about 400nm SW of Lands End
    She should come within range of land based AIS receivers around 6am tomorrow morning.
    She is on schedule to arrive in Zeebrugge on 20 Nov and Southampton at 05:30 on 23 Nov

    Triton Ace Atlantic Progress.png

    GRAND AURORA At midday her position was N30.8 W54.3 which is about 500nm E of Bermuda.
    It looks as though the weather is deteriorating ahead and she might benefit by considering a more easterly routing, much like TRITON ACE did.
    Her ETA for Zeebrugge is 24 Nov and I estimate she should arrive in Southampton on 26/27 Nov.

    Grand Aurora Atlantic Progress.png

    TOSCANA is now in the Mediterranean having transited the Suez Canal yesterday.
    She is about 70nm off the south coast of Crete
    She is due to arrive in Zeebrugge on 27 Nov

    Toscana Med.png

    GLOVIS CRYSTAL continues to make good progress southwards along the Mexican coast.
    She is currently doing 16kts about 40nm W of Lazaro Cardenas, Mexico.
    The Tehuantepecer wind is already blowing at 45 kts and will strengthen tomorrow. A 15 degrees to starboard now could save a lot of grief tomorrow when she will arrive in the area.
    Her ETA for Balboa is 01:00 23 Nov and so I estimate she will arrive in Zeebrugge on 5 Dec and Southampton a couple of days later.

    The free GLOVIS CRYSTAL competition is up and running! Enter HERE

    Glov Crystal Pacific.png

    TANNHAUSER continues her uneventful crossing of the Arabian Sea.
    She achieving a constant 360nm daily.
    She will arrive at Suez on 25 Nov and Zeebrugge on 6 Dec.

    Tannhauser to Suez.png

    RCC AMSTERDAM is about to depart Pier 80 enroute to Balboa with an ETA of 26 Nov.
    On that basis I expect her in Zeebrugge around 9 Dec and Southampton on 12 Dec
    Note: If you are searching for this ship on marinetraffic.com use her old name HOEGH AMSTERDAM

    GLOVIS SUN is currently on her way to Pier 80 and was due to arrive early tomorrow morning however she has no chance of making it on time. She endured some horrendous weather yesterday and although the winds have now eased the seas remain high, limiting her ability to make up time. She might make it tomorrow afternoon.
    I suspect that her Teslas will be destined for an Asian port.

    GLOVIS CAPTAIN is currently on her way to Benicia where she will arrive tomorrow night. She is actually early and will have to loiter offshore and wait for her dock at Benicia to become free.
    Since GLOVIS SUN is late, planners at Pier 80 may decide to load GLOVIS CAPTAIN first since she has a time critical Panama booking.
    It will very much depend on whether her cars are on the dock ready to be loaded.
    I should know tomorrow what the plan will be.
    At the moment my estimate for her arrival in Zeebrugge remains around 17 Dec.
     
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  3. jorgenask

    jorgenask Member

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    Thanks again for your hard work @Mr Miserable :D

    Do you happen to have some information or somewhere to look for which boat could potentially carry the boats from Zeebrugge to Drammen after Triton Ace arrives ? I'm looking at the arrival page at Drammen port and there is an arrival the 21st from Bremerhaven. But that seemes to early to be a likely candidate ?
     
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  4. jorgenask

    jorgenask Member

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    Maybe Prometheus Leader is the candidate for this and that the Drammen port website shows an optimistic arrival date. The Prometheus Leader is docked in Zeebrugge
     
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  5. Mr Miserable

    Mr Miserable Supporting Member

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    Just looking at numbers for Q4 for cars arriving in Europe from Fremont and Shanghai (total of 8 ships) and I reckon we are looking at an increase of around 15% from Q3 figures. That is astonishing.
    There is still a possibility of another shipment from Fremont and if that happens we would be looking at an increase of around 25% from Q3.
    Food for thought....
     
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  6. PetterNorway

    PetterNorway Member

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    Zeebrugge -> Bremerhaven -> Drammmen
     
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  7. lars667

    lars667 Member

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    It just left Zeebrugge, so doubt if it will have Teslas from Triton Ace, but there might be leftovers from the Antwerp? :)

    upload_2020-11-18_15-33-11.png
     
  8. jorgenask

    jorgenask Member

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    I guess we have to keep stalking the zeebrugge port and drammen port website the next few days after triton arrives :p
     
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  9. Mr Miserable

    Mr Miserable Supporting Member

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    Now that RCC AMSTERDAM is on her way, it must time for the imaginatively titled

    RCC AMSTERDAM Competition

    All you have to do is study the chart below and using your skill and judgement decide which gridsquare RCC AMSTERDAM will be in at Midday UTC on 02 Dec 20?

    GRID.jpg

    She will be sailing between Panama (bottom left) and Zeebrugge (top right).
    Only 1 entry per person
    In the event of a tie, the person who chose the closest gridsquare first will be declared the winner.
    Entries will close when RCC AMSTERDAM enters the Panama Canal.
    There is no prize - it's just bit of fun!

    CLICK HERE to enter!
     
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  10. jorgenask

    jorgenask Member

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    The satellite tracking on Triton Ace seemes to be very on/off at the moment. almost an hour with no update.
    I seem to remember this issue being discussed earlier, is this a usual occurance? @Mr Miserable
     
  11. Mr Miserable

    Mr Miserable Supporting Member

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    You've got to remember that the AIS system wasn't designed for global satellite reception.
    It is a VHF line of sight system that has a maximum capacity of 4500 reports per minute. This is ample to allow for multiple report types from many ships in a local area at regular intervals, however the number of vessels that are visible to a satellite means that a satellite system can easily become jammed or receive corrupted reports. Technological advances in satellite AIS receivers and the sheer number of them that have been launched into orbit over the last 3 years has been astonishing and the satellite service is getting better almost daily.
    So although we still see apparent outages they are becoming less and less.
     
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  12. howardoark

    howardoark Member

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  13. Mr Miserable

    Mr Miserable Supporting Member

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    #6813 Mr Miserable, Nov 18, 2020
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 19, 2020
    Moderator comment - Post copied and related replied moved to Car configuration permutations and waiting times

    With many new Tesla Model 3 buyers waiting for their new cars I think it's timely just to explain why you are waiting...and waiting.
    Tesla like many other companies are very conscious of their quarterly financial figures. They aim to sell every car they make in any quarter in the same quarter. So a car manufactured in January, February or March must be sold by the end of March, and so on. To be deemed as sold the car must not only be paid for in full but actually delivered to the customer. Ideally they will get paid for a car before they have to pay their suppliers.
    It makes sense then that cars destined for Europe are manufactured at the beginning of the quarter and in the last month of the quarter no cars are exported to Europe. This means that ships will depart in the 1st two months of any quarter and none in the 3rd. This is why there is a feast or famine cycle of Model 3 availability. (Model S and X are slightly different) This cycle also explains the mad rush at the end of every quarter to deliver all the cars. We normally receive around 7 to 8 shipments each quarter in Europe with up to 5 ships enroute at any one time. For Model 3 there is no way of knowing exactly which ship your car is on bar being told by a friendly Tesla person. You can however have a pretty good guess based on when you expect delivery and when you get your VIN allocated. VINs seem to be allocated within a day or 2 of the ship departing from Pier 80. I won’t describe here how to find your VIN because there are many threads on this subject already on this forum and I recommend you have a read of them. Another thing about Tesla and specifically Model 3 is that your car is not built to order - Tesla build whatever they want and then match those built against orders. It can mean that some folk could have a long wait for their particular specification. It means that you may have ordered the same day as someone else however you may not get delivery on the same day if your specification is slightly different. Some get lucky, they order on Monday and take delivery on Friday whereas others wait, and wait, and then wait some more. This waiting can be incredibly frustrating and inconvenient, but trust me, it’s worth the wait!
     
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  14. Mr Miserable

    Mr Miserable Supporting Member

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    In Feb 19 the GOLDEN RAY docked at Pier 80 and loaded its precious Tesla cargo and departed for China.

    This was a comparatively new ship entering service in 2017, benefitting from a modern bridge and all the advantages that modern computer technology can bring. Although like many other pure vehicle carriers she was 200 metres long she was a bit wider at just over 35 metres. That extra width allowed her to carry up to 7700 cars. She left Pier 80 on 13 Feb 19 and arrived safely in Shanghai on 1 Mar 19.

    On 8 Sep 19 the GOLDEN RAY was leaving Brunswick, Georgia en route to Baltimore. She had onboard about 4500 Kia and Hyundai cars and as she entered the Atlantic she started to list. In an action reminscent of the HOEGH OSAKA incident in the Solent in Jan 2015, the local pilot immediately steered the vessel towards shallow water to prevent a total capsize. 23 crew members were rescued unharmed although for 3 of them trapped in the engine room with an uncontrolled fire it was a close run thing. The HOEGH OSAKA was refloated by the salvage company, subsequently repaired and quickly returned to service. That's not the case with the GOLDEN RAY - it's still at the mouth of the river, lying on it's side. It is being totally dismantled in situ.

    The US NTSB has yet to report on the GOLDEN RAY accident but the UK Maritime Accident Investigation Branch has issued its report on the HOEGH OSAKA incident which is an interesting read.

    Vehicle carriers do not have a good safety record. The accidents and incidents can be largely grouped into 2 different cause groups - Fire and Instability.

    Let’s look at fires first of all. 5 major fires since January 2019 that I am aware of:

    January 2019 SINCERITY ACE caught fire whilst crossing the Pacific with 3500 Nissans on board. 5 Crewman died
    March 2019 GRANDE AMERICA caught fire and sank in the Bay of Biscay
    May 2019 GRANDE EUROPA caught fire whilst off the Spanish coast in the Mediterranean. It had no less than 2 separate fires in brand new vehicles within the space of 4 hours.
    June 2019 DIAMOND HIGHWAY was abandoned in the South China Sea because of a fire onboard.
    June 2020 HOEGH XIAMEN caught fire whilst loading at Jacksonville Florida. Despite the fire service being on scene very quickly and using drones with IR cameras to detect hot spots, the ship continued to burn for days and was a total loss. This fire was very concerning since if a fire cannot be extinguished when alongside with the benefit of a fully equipped fire service using fire boats and all the latest technology, what chance would it have at sea?

    The causation of most of these fires is put down to car batteries, that’s normal ICE 12V car batteries on brand new cars. No, I don’t suppose you read about these horrific incidents in the Daily Mail since they didn’t involve a Tesla.

    The other major issue with these ships is their stability or rather potential instability. Generally there are 2 reasons for stability issues the first of which is water ingress and the second is failing to ballast or trim the vessel properly. Ocasionally the latter leads to the former.
    Typing the following incidents into a search engine will produce an eye-opening read.

    Dec 02 TRICOLOR Enroute from Zeebrugge to Southampton sank following collision. Notoriously hit twice more by 2 different vessels.
    Jul 06 COUGAR ACE Developed a severe list
    Dec 12 BALTIC ACE 11 died following a collision
    Jan 15 HOEGH OSAKA Developed a severe lis
    Jan 16 MODERN EXPRESS Severe list
    Sep 19 GOLDEN RAY Capsized

    The American NTSB report on the GOLDEN RAY is yet to be published, however there were some US Coastguard hearings in September from which you can get a very good idea of what went on.
     
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  15. Medved_77

    Medved_77 TM3 SR+ | MSM+Black | No FSD

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    Whilst on the topic of worst case scenarios,
    for those awaiting their LHD SR+ via the Suez canal, keep your fingers crossed that Egypt does not declare war on Israel or vice versa.

    You may find yourself waiting 8 years for delivery...

    Yellow Fleet - Wikipedia
     
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  16. howardoark

    howardoark Member

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    As I understand it, and I could be very wrong, if the car is delivered to the leasing company, that counts as delivered (because the leasing company is the customer) even if the end user doesn't get the car for a few days.
     
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  17. Mr. Impatient

    Mr. Impatient Member

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    Welcome Triton!
    upload_2020-11-19_8-7-2.png
     
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  18. lars667

    lars667 Member

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    #6818 lars667, Nov 18, 2020
    Last edited: Nov 18, 2020
    Not sure if the Drammen, Norway, port is on topic here, but anyways. Found another interesting webcam. Shows the main lot just next to the pier for the roro-ships arriving. Should probably get a good view while the ships are unloading:


    [​IMG]
    https://tsftp.no/drammen/k1/snapshot_Pos24.jpg


    Correction: This is a lot north of the pier, unloading happens south.
     
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  19. Mr Miserable

    Mr Miserable Supporting Member

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    TRITON ACE At midday she was about 20nm S of the Lizard.
    It looks like she will stop briefly off Brixham around 5pm to pick up a pilot before continuing on to Zeebrugge.
    She is on schedule to arrive in Zeebrugge tomorrow morning although her Southampton arrival has now slipped to ‘PM’ on Monday

    GRAND AURORA At midday her position was N35.1 W47.7 which is about 850nm ENE of Bermuda.
    She is smack on track and maintaining 17 kts and so is on schedule.
    Her ETA for Zeebrugge is 24 Nov and I estimate she should arrive in Southampton on 28 Nov

    Grand Aurora Atlantic Progress.png

    TOSCANA No position update has been received from her
    I estimate that at midday she was about 100nm E of Malta
    She should come within the range of land based AIS receivers shorty
    She is due to arrive in Zeebrugge on 27 Nov

    Toscana Med.png

    GLOVIS CRYSTAL has so far had an uneventful transit down the Pacific coast of Mexico but that is going to change.
    I have for the past several days warned that she would encounter the Tehuantepecer wind unless she altered course but she hasn’t and so now she is about to receive a full broadside from the jet. It’s not just the storm force winds but the 6 meter high waves that will have been kicked up that will pose the challenge to her. The problem is that a storm of this ferocity normally gives lots of warning - lowering cloud base, thickening clouds, falling pressure, a gradual increase in windspeed and sea state and of course rain but this isn’t a storm and so there is none of this - there are none of the traditional warnings. One minute you are in smooth seas but the next minute you are in a howling gale. Of course it’s quite narrow, only about 150nm wide and some mariners may deliberately decide to plough on through regardless after all it’s open water. I would have made my decision days ago and avoided the area completely. It would cost an extra 173 track miles but since I made the decision early it would only require an extra 1.2 kts of speed to maintain schedule. The extra fuel burned will be much less than will be required to transit the area and make up for lost time. Importantly, I will not have put any of my cargo at risk of damage from uncontrolled movement as a result of broken lashings.

    Screenshot 2020-11-19 at 12.27.15.png

    Anyway, her midday position shows that she is aware of the threat posed by the jet and has decided to hug the coastline. This will mean that she won’t receive the bashing from the waves to the same extent as those that are blindly ploughing on. She'll still be in for a fairground ride though.
    Her ETA for Balboa is 01:00 23 Nov and so I estimate she will arrive in Zeebrugge on 5 Dec and Southampton a couple of days later.

    The free GLOVIS CRYSTAL competition is up and running! Enter HERE

    TANNHAUSER continues her uneventful crossing of the Arabian Sea.
    She will arrive at Suez on 25 Nov and Zeebrugge on 6 Dec.

    Tannhauser to Suez.png

    RCC AMSTERDAM left Pier 80 24 hours ago and is enroute to Balboa with an ETA of 26 Nov.
    She is making 17kts and is abeam the US/Mexico border.
    I expect her in Zeebrugge around 9 Dec and Southampton on 12 Dec

    Enter the RCC AMSTERDAM competition now.

    Amst Pacif.png

    Meanwhile the late arrival of GLOVIS SUN has thrown a spanner into the carefully laid plans at Pier 80.
    GLOVIS CAPTAIN is currently loitering off the coast of San Francisco waiting for space to unload at Benicia which should become free late tonight.
    I believe the latest plan is for her to move alongside Pier80 tomorrow evening and commence loading as soon as possible.
    The plan for a quick load is not yet finalised however because of manpower constraints. Dock work worldwide is a heavily unionised industry and a change of plan and extended working doesn’t just happen….
    At the moment my estimate for her arrival in Zeebrugge remains around 17 Dec.

    GLOVIS SUN is currently still on her way to Pier 80 however because she is late she will now have to wait until GLOVIS CAPTAIN departs, the time for which is still to be determined.
    I still suspect that she will be destined for an Asian port.
     
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  20. jorgenask

    jorgenask Member

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    I guess she (Triton Ace) will not dock to get the pilot onboard ? just slow down close to land and pick him/her up ?
     

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