2020 Shipping Movements

[Tall_Ross]

I've had a couple of people asking me about TITUS and whether she has delivered Chinese Model 3s to Athens. I don't think so.
Clearly it is has been a busy weekend with the revelations that Tesla really are shipping Chinese made Model 3s to Europe. We knew it was going to happen but nevertheless it is still big news. Someone in France put down a deposit of €100 and seemed to have been immediately matched with a LRW VIN (LRW indicates that the car was manufactured by Tesla China. A car made in the USA has a VIN starting 5YJ). In this very thread @Terranca yesterday found LRW VINS for sale in the source code on a European Tesla website. Significantly however the source code seemed to indicate they were coming via Zeebrugge. Some news outlets are saying that Tesla will be delivering these cars this month however that is not what Tesla have said. Tesla have stated that they will start exporting Chinese Model 3s this month. This means we can scratch TITUS off the list since she loaded in September. (I wasn't too interested in GF3 at the time but wasn't it closed towards the end of September?)
Anyway, it's clear that there has been a large ramp up of production in Shanghai and it is able to supply not only its existing domestic market but produce a surplus for export too. I understand that the exports to Europe are LHD SR+ at the moment. They may also be exporting to other neighbouring countries as well eg S Korea however those exports will be hard to spot. What will increase their visibility is the development of the Nangang Terminal. I believe there is a desire to use Nangang soon however I am unsighted as to any progress or the issues that need to be resolved to make it happen - a good subject for a Wu Wa drone video perhaps?
I'm also unsure about whether the rail link is viable. It is a container only rail link at the moment as far as I can tell. Nevertheless there was an indication that Tesla may be preparing to use a trimodel facility in Neuss, Germany. This might better fit with the concept of unloading in Athens and using a car transporter train from there to Neuss.
So what we can say is that the Chinese made Model 3s will very soon be on the way to Europe, it's just a question of how. For the moment I still expect them to come by sea, via Zeebrugge.
We shall see....
Meanwhile back at Fremont they appear to be manufacturing 'refreshed' Model 3s for the domestic market. Normally production at this point in the quarter is still 100% export and yet at the moment they are producing cars for both the domestic market and export market concurrently. This tells me that Fremont have increased their production too.
October may have had a slow start but things are most definitely hotting up....

Thanks again Mr Miserable for your updates.

 

[Terranca]

Totally agree about TITUS. The timing seems off. There is another WuWa video stating GF3 was closed for 10 days starting September 20th, and supposedly Titus left on Sept 28th. That is 8 days after closing down the factory, so the cars must have been produced in the weeks before, so early to mid-september. There is one issue with that: Tesla has confirmed that these Europe-bound models have the LFP battery (hence the range bump), which only seems to have been incorporated since Oct 1st. It might be possible, but it just feels "off", to me. We'll see, I hope you can spot the next ship. At least we have an interesting tracking future ahead; looking both ways now.

 

[Mr Miserable]

looking both ways now.

What is known as a "Janus array".

 

[Terranca]

Not sure where this video is getting it's information, but the images look pretty recent (with the cars wrapped in white protective film), and it mentions "the first batch will be shipped next Tuesday and arrive in Zeebrugge end of november". This matches nicely with the ExpectedArrival I found in the inventory source, which mentioned November 26th. Time to keep an eye out

Another video (seems to be taken 19th October)

 

[JHeg]

Looks like file footage. Everything has chrome and the car at the end doesn't have CCS.

 

[Mr Miserable]

At Pier 80 the loading of RCC ANTWERP will be complete later today and the ship will depart around teatime. (~2 am UK time). She has taken a little longer than I expected to load as I would have expected a ship of this size to have been fully loaded by yesterday. She is what is known as a Panamax vessel in that she was designed to fit into the original Panama Canal locks (more about the Panama Canal later in the voyage). You may read elsewhere that she can hold just over 6000 cars. That is true if those cars are all 1966 Toyota Corona's, which is the standard industry measure. A Tesla Model 3 is not only longer and wider but crucially an awful lot heavier which means that there will certainly not be 6000 cars onboard. Since she is only 7 years old her car decks will have been designed to take the weight of heavier modern cars but a ship full of Tesla's adds a significant factor. I have pencilled her in to arrive in Zeebrugge around 10 Nov and Southampton around 12 Nov but that is all dependent on when her Panama Canal transit takes place and we shall have an idea of when that is likely to take place once she departs.
Another ship that I was keeping an eye on, GLOVIS SPRING, was looking very good to be a possible surprise visitor immediately after RCC ANTWERP departed however it is not to be and we can scratch her off the list.
The next ship to arrive will be GRAND DOLPHIN. She is operating just down the coast at the moment and should easily make an arrival to start loading on Friday.
Meanwhile in Canada the TRITON ACE is on her way southwards and she is looking good to arrive alongside Pier 80 next Monday. I am very confident that TRITON ACE will be EU bound but that is not the case for GRAND DOLPHIN. I have said it before however GRAND DOLPHIN's itinerary was changed in the last month from operating in Europe to, err well, I don't know. I suspect however she will head to the Far East.

 

[Mr Miserable]

Not sure where this video is getting it's information, but the images look pretty recent (with the cars wrapped in white protective film), and it mentions "the first batch will be shipped next Tuesday and arrive in Zeebrugge end of november". This matches nicely with the ExpectedArrival I found in the inventory source, which mentioned November 26th. Time to keep an eye out

Another video (seems to be taken 19th October)

The good news is that I can ignore Nangang, and trains for the moment, as this video is definitely shot at Waigaoqiao docks.

 

[Terranca]

Got some really interesting info for you @Mr Miserable ... managed to get one of the inventory cars matched to my order, with a LRW (LRW3E7FA8LC****)

And... *drumroll* .. I got the ship name!
TOSCANA AX004-TOC-BE ZEE

Tesla said: "It left 2 days ago, and journey is expected to be at least 4 weeks".
Edit: looks like a really weird ship seeing the past track .... not sure if their information is correct although it was on a short list of Mr Miserable at a certain point
Edit 2: Nice to get confirmation about the LFP battery -- the 7th VIN character is a new, unknown value "F" where it is normally E

 

[emmmaaa]

Got some really interesting info for you @Mr Miserable ... managed to get one of the inventory cars matched to my order, with a LRW (LRW3E7FA8LC****)

Excellent news - how did you do that as I too am awaiting a LRW 3

 

[Mr Miserable]

Got some really interesting info for you @Mr Miserable ... managed to get one of the inventory cars matched to my order, with a LRW (LRW3E7FA8LC****)

And... *drumroll* .. I got the ship name!
TOSCANA AX004-TOC-BE ZEE

Tesla said: "It left 2 days ago, and journey is expected to be at least 4 weeks".
Edit: looks like a really weird ship seeing the past track .... not sure if their information is correct although it was on a short list of Mr Miserable at a certain point
Edit 2: Nice to get confirmation about the LFP battery -- the 7th VIN character is a new, unknown value "F" where it is normally E

That is indeed a scoop - well done!
I did identify TOSCANA as an outsider on 12 Oct however this news does take a lot of the guesswork out.
Her schedule has her arriving in Shanghai on Friday and departing next Tuesday 27 Oct. She will arrive in Zeebrugge on 26 Nov.
I will report on her progress all the way.

(I'm glad this has been nailed down because there is another ship loading at present SAIC ANJI PHOENIX which will also arrive in Zeebrugge on 26 Nov.)

 

[Terranca]

Excellent news - how did you do that as I too am awaiting a LRW 3

Keep an eye on your exact configuration in the Inventory page on the Tesla site -- then open up the Chat in the lower right corner and ask them to match the car to your RN Not sure if it speeds up the process, but it's nice to know there is a car on your name.

That is indeed a scoop - well done!
I did identify TOSCANA as an outsider on 12 Oct however this news does take a lot of the guesswork out.
Her schedule has her arriving in Shanghai on Friday and departing next Tuesday 27 Oct. She will arrive in Zeebrugge on 26 Nov.
I will report on her progress all the way.

(I'm glad this has been nailed down because there is another ship loading at present SAIC ANJI PHOENIX which will also arrive in Zeebrugge on 26 Nov.)

Nice, that also matches the timeline in the video's from this morning exactly. I also checked the inventory source before they matched it, and it had an "ExpectedVesselArrival" of 2020-11-28.

 

[jorgenask]

We need to get a mole inside Teslas logistics department so can get excact information at all times

 

[Mr Miserable]

We need to get a mole inside Teslas logistics department so can get excact information at all times

If Tesla improved their feedback to customer's and provided some sort of regular progress report on how their order was progressing this thread wouldn't need to exist. Instead customers are met with a wall of silence. It would be so easy to improve this aspect of Tesla, I'm staggered that it is hasn't been done already.

 

[Morriscoombes]

I think Lexus provide links and info to the shipping data. TBH I suppose most people don't really care, just care about the date.

 

[Bantam]

now that ships are coming from China and US, does this mean we get more chances of winning sod all on the Q4 shipping competition?

 

[bajabugsteve]

New member here. Thank you to Mr Miserable for all this information - I've been able to confirm my allocated Model 3 is coming across on RCC Antwerp.

Cannot wait!

 

[Mr Miserable]

now that ships are coming from China and US, does this mean we get more chances of winning sod all on the Q4 shipping competition?

I'm presently scouring the world markets for best quality sweet FA's. I don't want any cheapo tat.

 

[Nuukkuun]

I noticed around half a page was moved (or removed altogether). The posts was a continuation of irrelevant discussion about VINs, order dates and model configurations. In my opinion the mods should follow up the removal of such posts with a written emphasis on avoiding irrelevant discussion clogging up the original goal of the thread and work done by Mr Miserable (thank you so much). Otherwise no-one will learn.

The irony in writing a post also not related to shipping is not lost on me, but I’ve been lurking for a while, and the constant irrelevant questions and discussion was clogging up the thread and it’s original goal. This was despite the fact that several people were already told to take such discussions elsewhere.

 

[bajabugsteve]

I didn't intend to clutter this thread up, infact I'm in the process of finding the delivery thread to update.

I was originally thanking Mr Miserable, apologies for overstepping the mark.

 

[jorgenask]

So TRITON ACE is the next ship to be filled up with Tezlaz at pier 80 going for Zeebrugge after RCC Antwerp finishes ?