2020 vs. 2021

[mgoldst3]

What're views here on the merits of ordering a Model 3 Performance now vs. waiting for a 2021 model? Any insight into when Tesla typically announces the next year's models?

I placed a custom order with a 1/1/21 delivery date for now but debating moving up vs. keeping. Obviously would be fun to get the car sooner but figured potentially not that far off from "seeing the next car(d)."

 

[Pkmmte]

Tesla doesn't do model years. I mean, they do, but only in terms of labels. A late 2020 car could be identical to a 2021 car.

Instead, they usually quietly roll out improvements without major announcements most of the time at random moments.

 

[jmaddr]

Tesla doesn't include upgrades in model years...they pretty much upgrade when they want. The only thing a newer model year will get you is the legacy resale pricing based on model year which I personally think will become less and less distinctive. Build date and mileage will be the overriding resale factors.

 

[mgoldst3]

Thanks all. This explains why I couldn't figure out when the 2020 "announcement" came out.

 

[CapeOne]

Tesla has actually started to use a more "traditional" model year labeling system. It used to be that the build date dictated the car's year (e.g., 11/17 = 2017) but that changed last year as they were labeling 11/19 and 12/19 build cars as 2020 models.

 

[Knightshade]

Tesla has actually started to use a more "traditional" model year labeling system. It used to be that the build date dictated the car's year (e.g., 11/17 = 2017) but that changed last year as they were labeling 11/19 and 12/19 build cars as 2020 models.

Yeah, but they still make no feature distinctions based on model year- various changes cut in whenever they are ready to cut in... tons of stuff have changed since the Model 3 launched, none of it with any year-related cutoff date.

 

[SDM44]

The only changes right now that recently occurred is that the newly built Model 3 cars will have USB-C ports instead of the USB-A ports that it has always had, basically the same as the Model Y cars.

I believe the same for the Tesla wireless charging pad will now come on the newly built Model 3 cars, again same as the Model Y.

That really only matters if you're considering buying/ordering a car now that is in current inventory.

 

[jeremymc7]

I'm still wondering if there's going to be some notable hardware changes in the next six months. I literally have been holding out for the battery day even to see what they say.

But with the recent price drop and the upcoming FSD price hike; now seemed like a good time.

 

[CapeOne]

Yeah, but they still make no feature distinctions based on model year- various changes cut in whenever they are ready to cut in... tons of stuff have changed since the Model 3 launched, none of it with any year-related cutoff date.

True. Even other automakers have long been known to make option, feature, etc. additions or changes during a model year. I was just pointing out that build year doesn't necessarily correspond to model year with Tesla like it used to.

 

[P3dStealth]

If you think about it Tesla may even take stuff away for 2021 lol.

They took away the homelink, interior pocket lights, trunk mat, frunk mat, auto dimming mirrors, phone charging cables, frunk bag hangers, nema 14-50 adapter, license plate frame, driver dead pedal, toy Tesla car.

There is prob more.

 

[SammichLover]

Tesla has actually started to use a more "traditional" model year labeling system. It used to be that the build date dictated the car's year (e.g., 11/17 = 2017) but that changed last year as they were labeling 11/19 and 12/19 build cars as 2020 models.

Isn't that just an artifact of industry legacy VIN procedures? Meaning it was already going on.

 

[The_Observer]

If you think about it Tesla may even take stuff away for 2021 lol.

They took away the homelink, interior pocket lights, trunk mat, frunk mat, auto dimming mirrors, phone charging cables, frunk bag hangers, nema 14-50 adapter, license plate frame, driver dead pedal, toy Tesla car.

There is prob more.

This 100 times, when I picked up my 2020 Model 3, I was rather surprised how much stuff they don't include.

Next year, they might even take away the car manuals, 1 of 2 keycards, front license plate mount (on states that don't require one), all remaining car mats, or who knows what they will get rid of next year.

 

[Knightshade]

I'm still wondering if there's going to be some notable hardware changes in the next six months. I literally have been holding out for the battery day even to see what they say.

But with the recent price drop and the upcoming FSD price hike; now seemed like a good time.

I would expect the better batteries will be going first to the Plaid S/X, and the cybertruck that'll need 500 miles of range and be able to tow heavy stuff, and eventually the roadster.

After all that they can look at refreshing the 3/Y batteries since they'll have production scaled up by then

 

[jeremymc7]

I would expect the better batteries will be going first to the Plaid S/X, and the cybertruck that'll need 500 miles of range and be able to tow heavy stuff, and eventually the roadster.

After all that they can look at refreshing the 3/Y batteries since they'll have production scaled up by then

Good thought! Besides the battery announcements at battery day was also thinking the other "surprises" Musk eluded to.

 

[P3dStealth]

I would expect the better batteries will be going first to the Plaid S/X, and the cybertruck that'll need 500 miles of range and be able to tow heavy stuff, and eventually the roadster.

After all that they can look at refreshing the 3/Y batteries since they'll have production scaled up by then

The vehicle that needs those batteries is the Tesla semi. I have a theory that they delayed the semi because they are waiting on the batteries. It's normal to see a semi with over 750,000 miles. It would make sense for that to be the first vehicle to have the battery and for production be dedicated to that vehicle so they can fill the delayed orders.

Just my theory.

 

[SammichLover]

It's normal to see a semi with over 750,000 miles.

Sort of. It isn't normal to see one in high mile per year use (highway long haul) past about 300,000 miles on the odometer. Past 500,000 they're more likely to have moved into seasonal use (agriculture industry uses these a lot) and spend a huge amount of their remaining life in a shop getting rebuild types of maintenance.

I too expect the semi is in a holding pattern waiting on battery tech but not as much for lifespan as for manufacturing cost. Given how much battery a single unit needs to hit specs, likely around 800kWh and potentially, and Tesla's stated target price point (to hit target cost of ownership metrics), I'm pretty sure they need pack-level costs sub-$100/kWh.

 

[Knightshade]

The vehicle that needs those batteries is the Tesla semi. I have a theory that they delayed the semi because they are waiting on the batteries. It's normal to see a semi with over 750,000 miles. It would make sense for that to be the first vehicle to have the battery and for production be dedicated to that vehicle so they can fill the delayed orders.

Just my theory.

Absolutely- my bad for leaving it off the list of things coming ahead of a 3/Y refresh

 

[TMThree]

The vehicle that needs those batteries is the Tesla semi. I have a theory that they delayed the semi because they are waiting on the batteries. It's normal to see a semi with over 750,000 miles. It would make sense for that to be the first vehicle to have the battery and for production be dedicated to that vehicle so they can fill the delayed orders.

Just my theory.

If the longer lasting battery is also less energy dense, the semi application also wouldn't matter as much as something like the roadster2 where the large battery already has weight concerns.

 

[CapeOne]

Isn't that just an artifact of industry legacy VIN procedures? Meaning it was already going on.

Yes but until recently, Tesla had been operating a bit differently with build years dictating model years e.g., a 11/17 build car was a 2017 model, not a 2018. That changed for Tesla starting last year when they were selling 11/19 and 12/19 build cars as 2020 models.

To me, model years are more about identifying the style of a particular car e.g., a 2015 Brand X Model Z will have the same style as any other 2015 of the same model while a 2014 or 2016 version may be different. The standard equipment, available colors or options during that 2015 model year may have changed but not the style.

Tesla really hasn't gone through any significant style changes yet. The closest was with the new MS nose in 2016 and because they weren't using model years, the two styles carried the same 2016 year and instead had to be distinguished other ways e.g., “Facelift Model S”, “Refresh Model S”, etc. Had they been using more traditional model years, Tesla could've called the new design MS a 2017 to avoid confusion with the old nose 2016.

 

[TLLMRRJ]

Tesla has actually started to use a more "traditional" model year labeling system. It used to be that the build date dictated the car's year (e.g., 11/17 = 2017) but that changed last year as they were labeling 11/19 and 12/19 build cars as 2020 models.

My Oct/2019 is a 2020.