jvoisin
Member
that's not bad though.. I ordered 03/28 and mine is June 6-26...Now back to June 16 - June 30.
-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
Yeah, it's not bad if the delivery date is in that range, it's just the 3 week swings are brutal.
illcarry
Member
I sure hope so. I scheduled another test drive with them for later this afternoon. Hopefully they'll get tired of me driving their cars and just get me the one ordered. lolThat's still good. I def hope it sticks and you get the earlier ETA
Mine went from 8-12 weeks yesterday to now May 16 - May 31st. Back to original timeline before it switched to 8-12 weeks.
Ordered 04/08
MSM, White interior, No FSD, 18", Ordered So Cal
Ordered 04/08
MSM, White interior, No FSD, 18", Ordered So Cal
I was about to post this earlier today and it ended u being too long but here goes.
in Q1, there were about 180 000 model 3 produced and a bit more delivered. About 4/7th in Fremont and 3/7th in China. It means about 103K in Fremont and 77K in China.
There are about 30 variation on the model 3: SR+, LR, P (3), 5 colors, 2 interiors. FSD is software so doesn't matter and the wheels is fairly straightforward to pick last minute
There was a bit less than 30 000 model 3 shipped to the US. 3200 in Canada. Couldn't find the numbers for PR and Mexico. The rest goes oversees.
There are about 270 8 hours shifts in a quarter meaning the Fremont factory produces about 3800 cars per shift.
So at that volume, based on historical data, they can guess probably really well the distribution of the 30 variations I mentioned above. They have some regional constraints too (ex: mexico and Canada models have minor differences, EU models have different tail and head lights and so on).
Now if you look at the broken down per region distribution, even at 30K for the US, each target SC has a relatively small number of cars delivered.
I strongly suspect the most constraining logistical problem is the stacking of cars in the factory's parking and how they get piped to they respective freight targets (train, boats, trucks).
As a result, your individual dates are a function of:
1- how early in the quarter you ordered
2- the volume of cars forecast to be delivered at your SC
3- the probability of your selected config to be statistically significant at that SC
4- the probability that a given quarter's order book (actual) matches the forecast.
So as they begin the quarter, they can ramp up production going "on average, we need x P, y LR and z SR". a% P have white interior and (1-a)% black - broken down by target markets (EU, north America, others). Based on leftover inventory from Q1, they are very near 0 leftovers. As production ramps up and orders start getting in, they is a queue of "more probably orders" (i.e. you placed an order of a given config with probability of canceling and probability of changing config) and "less certain orders" (those not in yet). As we approach the end of the quarter, there are fewer and fewer cars left to build in you region. So it becomes a game of "how probable it is that I place a late order of a config that has a high probability to be remaining in my area on the forecast production".
So those (like me) with low fluctuation of dates have probably a high volume in the area, high probability of having one unit in that config with an order placed early enough that it's accounted for in the production list of units so they can forecast "reliable" delivery times. Those with "exotic" configuration in low volume area are possible built to order and near the end when the "highly probably" "easy to guess" units are built and you are completing the whole thing. For the Canadian market, for instance, they will probably have an abnormally high volume of SR+ because of the cutoff incentive price point. So if you order not an SR+, your dates are more of a crap shoot than the SR+. The whole Canadian volume is ONE shift. And I doubt they don't build those together. The east coast vs west coast thing is most likely a distribution constraint thing where they need to travel for longer. It makes sense to finish at home where delivery is less the constraining factor.
It's very likely there are other factors I am not aware of that influences the whole thing. Left side drive is probably the worst date-wise for the Fremont factory because the volume is likely very low.
EDIT: Material supply storage and synchronization is probably a major factor too. I.E. the delivery of X component required for Y market if back ordered so we pushed the production of that batch by a week.
EDIT 2: In Canada it seems like about 83% of the Model 3 are SR+. A negligible number of SR. I would venture a guess that LR vs P is 2 to 1 because beyond the rebate model (SR+) it's less about the price tag than the car itself. But that's like 3-400 cars total per quarter based on 2021 Q1 numbers)
Last edited:
snikt
Member
I just ordered on 5/13 and on my account it's showing estimated June 14 - June 30
Blue AWD, standard wheels, black interior
Blue AWD, standard wheels, black interior
Same here man... Except I’m picking up in Fort Worth. MSM with 19’s. I ordered 4/16. Really hoping we get some good news here in the next few days.
Same config for me plus FSD but that should affect production. I haven't actually seen many with our config which I thought would be popular. Ordered 4/30 in OH with est 6/4-6/24 at present but has changed a few times.
Update: Delivery got moved up.
Estimated Delivery: June 01 - June 21str
Blue with White Interior
Long Range AWD
Providence, Rhode Island
My dates are back. Still 5/27 - 6/16
Ordered 4/6
White/Black Int/18" wheels/no FSD/TX
jvoisin
Member
And it did.Now they’re just toying with my emotions. It changed tonight to 5/28-6/10. I fully expect it to change back the other way in the morning.
Now shows 5/29-6/18.
PerfectNumber
Member
On a side note I saw a lot of blue model 3 I hope one is mine
how long is shipping from Fremont to the east coast ?
TheRFMan
Member
Anecdotal data from these forums and from inventory cars when they show up on the Tesla site would indicate that the LR to P ratio is probably 5 to 1 or even higher in Canada. I would assume that the LR and P versions are part of the same production run as the US cars. I don't think there are any differences apart from warning labels and door jamb stickers being bilingual.
Similar threads
