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2021 Refresh Model X Delivery Times Reliability

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Just curious what people think the ACTUAL delivery times will be for the new Model X refresh? Are there factors (paint, options, etc) that you think could delay the delivery? I'm new to the Tesla community but it looks like Tesla has a history of over-promising and under-delivering when it comes to these things. I placed an order the day the refresh was announced and like everyone else was given an estimate of April. I'm personally interested because I will be selling my current car so trying to plan the timing of that. Thanks!
 
Just curious what people think the ACTUAL delivery times will be for the new Model X refresh? Are there factors (paint, options, etc) that you think could delay the delivery? I'm new to the Tesla community but it looks like Tesla has a history of over-promising and under-delivering when it comes to these things. I placed an order the day the refresh was announced and like everyone else was given an estimate of April. I'm personally interested because I will be selling my current car so trying to plan the timing of that. Thanks!
Tesla has one factory that makes the X, Fremont Ca. The way the have typically handle worldwide distribution from this one factory is by making the cars that have to travel the furthest early in the quarter and cars that don’t have to go as far later in the quarter. So it would not be to surprising to me if most US deliveries slipped until May/June. When I order my X it was listed as April delivery and I got it June 30th. I live 10 miles from the factory. The same thing happened with Model 3 LR, delivered Dec 29 2020. Initially listed as November delivery.

The one thing that might move up delivery dates this Spring is the new X update has some controversial issues: Decreased range, $10K price increase, and a yoke steering wheel that may depress sales.
 
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The one thing that might move up delivery dates this Spring is the new X update has some controversial issues: Decreased range, $10K price increase, and a yoke steering wheel that may depress sales.

Not sure I agree. Frankly the new X feels like a bargain to me. It is $20,000 less than my current X, adds 70-odd miles range, plus the interior updates are very likable. Now am I not running out and getting in line for one though. Maybe in a year or two. I’d really like to see FSD actually work, at least once, heheh
 
My account used to say "Delivery April 1 to April 30". Now that's gone, but seeing other X reports online where their accounts say mid February (which is now), so who knows?

Like @DCGOO I am coming from an X with 228 miles max range and I paid a TON for the P90D. So I am paying less this time, for 130 more miles of range, same acceleration and newer tech than my 2016 P90D. Only misgiving is I just KNOW that in a year or so, it will have 400+ mile range with new pack or something similar but hey, early adopters...
 
Not sure I agree. Frankly the new X feels like a bargain to me. It is $20,000 less than my current X, adds 70-odd miles range, plus the interior updates are very likable. Now am I not running out and getting in line for one though. Maybe in a year or two. I’d really like to see FSD actually work, at least once, heheh
But if you would have bought 4 weeks ago the price would have been $30,000 less and 90 or so more miles of range.
 
But if you would have bought 4 weeks ago the price would have been $30,000 less and 90 or so more miles of range.
That's a great point for me. But we all knew the refresh was coming, so I waited. It's no doubt annoying that they just upped the base price to $10,000 for what appears to be a less expensive car to build.

At the end of the day, if I (and others) were willing to wait 12 months, I think the price would be lower and range higher. But I am impatient.

It's a champagne problem...
 
That's a great point for me. But we all knew the refresh was coming, so I waited. It's no doubt annoying that they just upped the base price to $10,000 for what appears to be a less expensive car to build.

At the end of the day, if I (and others) were willing to wait 12 months, I think the price would be lower and range higher. But I am impatient.

It's a champagne problem...
It is definitely a good problem to have. I have the same one, but with a time constrain.

The lease on my current X is over in June. And the build times are approximately 3 months with 1st deliveries in April. So unless I order sight unseen and with no test drive, I have to turn in my car and repay the lease origination fees on the new car. I could order sight unseen but iffy about the yoke steering wheel. I really want to try one out before I buy.

Still having to decide on small issues on a $80,000+ car is a good problem to have.:) Never thought I would have this "problem" when I was a 13 year old cleaning toilets at my dad's gas station.
 
Tesla has one factory that makes the X, Fremont Ca. The way the have typically handle worldwide distribution from this one factory is by making the cars that have to travel the furthest early in the quarter and cars that don’t have to go as far later in the quarter. So it would not be to surprising to me if most US deliveries slipped until May/June. When I order my X it was listed as April delivery and I got it June 30th. I live 10 miles from the factory. The same thing happened with Model 3 LR, delivered Dec 29 2020. Initially listed as November delivery.
Off-topic, but can anyone explain how this really works out for them logistically? I can't imagine the ships take 2.75 months to do a round-trip, so how would the ships fill out the rest of the quarter so their load remains balanced and full year-round? How do the ground transport companies fill out their loads in the first half of each quarter if all of the other domestic makers are pumping out continuously week after week?
 
Off-topic, but can anyone explain how this really works out for them logistically? I can't imagine the ships take 2.75 months to do a round-trip, so how would the ships fill out the rest of the quarter so their load remains balanced and full year-round? How do the ground transport companies fill out their loads in the first half of each quarter if all of the other domestic makers are pumping out continuously week after week?
Tesla does have places they stash unsold cars and to be shipped cars. There are facilities near the docks. Here in the US Tesla can put cars on the railroad tracks at the plant and ship them to freight ports around the SF Bay Area or further. From the ports, they go by container ships to ports worldwide. In Europe, many of the cars come into Zeebrugge in Belgium. There are only so many car-specific transport ships, the "Glovis" ships have been used by Tesla. But, Tesla does not own these ships (Hyundai does), so Tesla has to vie for space with other car manufacturers that ship worldwide. And Hyundai does not want these ships sitting idle for any length of time since they only make money when they are hauling. So there is a logistics dance that Hyundai does to keep the ships moving cars.

Here in Northern California, Tesla stashes cars at various places prior to shipment. This includes places with railroad access for domestic shipments. One place I have seen car stashed is near Tracy, CA at Altamont Speedway. Also, in closed parking lots at malls and bowling alleys. Right now there are a number of White Model Y and 3's being stored in Dublin, CA at the Dublin Bowl parking lot. The lot is probably 1/5 full now. But was almost full throughout December. It appeared car carriers were coming from the factory 12 miles away and then other car carriers were picking them up and going to various locations.
 
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not sure if this means anything but since i didn't complete my insurance information when i put the deposit down, got a reminder email from tesla. the email does confirm (or just restates) the april delivery date.
 

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not sure if this means anything but since i didn't complete my insurance information when i put the deposit down, got a reminder email from tesla. the email does confirm (or just restates) the april delivery date.
Sadly, it doesn’t mean anything since most folks can’t complete insurance info without a VIN except in 10+/- states. It’s a standard auto email.
The website now says “May/June” for the X but it’s unclear if that’s new orders or...
 
I ordered my MX on November 30 and got a December 15-31 delivery date. I was never notified that the car wouldn't arrive and the delivery date disappeared from my account right before Christmas. During the last week of December, I emailed and texted two different sales agents at my local store multiple times and neither of them ever responded. After the refresh was announced, a delivery date of February 15 - March 15 showed up. That has now disappeared and there is no indication of delivery time at all. I have not been contacted by Tesla and my order still shows the original price. I have gone from being very excited about getting a Tesla to not really caring at all at this point. If they value their customers this little, I'm not going to chase after them to give them my 100k, or 110k now, or maybe its 108k. I don't even know what the car will cost at this point.