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2021 Shipping Movements

Mr Miserable

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Jul 8, 2019
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On average, how many cars does the Glovis Century carry?
It's a good question.
Cars have always been transported by ship but it wasn't really until the Japanese car industry started exporting in earnest that dedicated ships were designed for the sole purpose of moving cars. The size and capability of these ships are assessed by how many 1966 Toyota Coronas they can carry. 1 RT = 1 x 1966 Toyota Corona.
The measure still exists today and the GLOVIS CENTURY has an RT (or RT43 units) rating of 6,560. However, a Tesla Model 3 is longer and wider than a 1966 Toyoya Corona and is significantly heavier.
I would estimate that she can carry 3500 - 4000 Model 3s.
Sorry to be a bit longwinded but we got there in the end!
 

Mr Miserable

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The 550 mile long Straits of Malacca lie between the Malaysian peninsula and the Indonesian island of Sumatra and is
one of the busiest shipping lanes in the world however amongst mariners, the straits are principally associated with rampant piracy.
Piracy has been a way of life for generations in this area but as a result of the spice trade, piracy became ever more profitable and brazen.
In 1824 The British East India Company and Dutch interests were the first to tackle the issue by dividing the straits down the middle (effectively forming the present day border of Malaysia and Indonesia) and patrolled respective sides to deter pirates. Nevertheless it took nearly 50 years to bring it under some semblance of control.
The opening of the Suez Canal in 1869 was to trigger another huge rise in shipping using the straits and a resultant rise in pirate attacks but crucially, a significant rise in the value of losses due to piracy. As a result the Royal Navy became a significant presence in the Straits for decades in an effort to deter pirate attacks whilst diplomatic efforts attempted to persuade neighbouring governments to assume responsibility in policing the area.
According to the International Maritime Bureau the straits accounted for 40% of global piracy attacks in 2004 with most of the attacks emanating from Indonesia. The traditional opportunist type of piracy was supplemented by organised crime targeting specific ships in well planned and coordinated attacks often with insider help. The situation was getting out of control and finally acknowledged by local governments with the formation of a coalition patrol force. For the last 10 years or so the Malacca Straits Patrol comprising assets from Indonesia , Thailand, Malaysia and Singapore and reinforced with Indian Navy assets have successfully reduced the attacks to near zero. UAVs have been particularly successful in locating (destroying?) pirate bases in the myriad of small islands on the southern edge of the straits.
Nevertheless, ships transiting the area still implement anti-piracy measures primarily to make their ships a difficult or unattractive target for pirates. One of the simplest measures is maintaining a high speed. As a consequence most recent attacks have been opportunists against ships at anchor.

Whilst the Straits of Malacca are regarded as pretty safe at the moment, the problem hasn’t gone away but seems to have merely shifted it to the Philippines and to a lesser degree the Singapore Straits. Anyway, so far in 2021, the piracy map has no recorded attacks in the straits.

GLOVIS CENTURY is currently maintaining 18 kts through the straits although her 30m high sheer sides make her an almost impossible target for pirates.
 
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Mr Miserable

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GLOVIS COMPANION has departed Portland and is on her way to Pier 80 where she is due to arrive on Friday evening. That doesn't give COSCO SHENGSHI very long to load and depart.
I'm also keeping an eye on GRAND RUBY which is due to arrive in Benicia tomorrow. As you may know, I have had this ship on my watch list for sometime and was pretty convinced she would appear alongside Pier 80 in January only to have my hopes dashed when she headed off to do a couple of runs to Mexico. I still think she is worth keeping an eye on but I don't know how or when she will feature. Could she hang around and be the next ship to Europe after GLOVIS COMPANION? We shall see....

Update: I note GRAND RUBY is showing on the Zeebruuge port schedule as arriving on 23 Feb. In order to achieve that she would need to leave San Francisco on 2 Feb. I can't see that happening at the moment.
Interestingly GLOVIS COMPANION is on there too arriving on 28 Feb - that can't be right?
 
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alb92

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Nov 22, 2018
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How long after ships depart pier 80 do VINs get matched?

I contacted Tesla yesterday evening and was told I was matched. I see that Horizon Leader had departed Pier 80 earlier that day. Is it likely my car is on that ship at all, or should I expect it to be on Glovis Captain? The Tesla rep didn't want to give me any details except the VIN.

Note - I may have been matched earlier, I just happened to contact them yesterday, which is about a week after I last contacted them and asked about VIN. So I know it may well be on Glovis Captain, just trying to figure out if I can rule out Horizon Leader.
 

Mr Miserable

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How long after ships depart pier 80 do VINs get matched?

I contacted Tesla yesterday evening and was told I was matched. I see that Horizon Leader had departed Pier 80 earlier that day. Is it likely my car is on that ship at all, or should I expect it to be on Glovis Captain? The Tesla rep didn't want to give me any details except the VIN.

Note - I may have been matched earlier, I just happened to contact them yesterday, which is about a week after I last contacted them and asked about VIN. So I know it may well be on Glovis Captain, just trying to figure out if I can rule out Horizon Leader.
Could be either. Delivery date should give you a clue. HORIZON LEADER won't arrive in Zeebrugge until around 15 Feb
 

Vedaprime

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Feb 15, 2019
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Brisbane
With the announcement of the New Model S/X having just come out, it appears there are going to be some shipping changes.

There will be no RHD Model S/X at all until 2022.

There does seem to be a commitment of some LHD Model S reaching Europe by March and X later in the year. If Model S is to make it by March, they need to out of the factory in the next week or two to make it.

This is quite a lengthy delay
 
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Mr Miserable

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With the announcement of the New Model S/X having just come out, it appears there are going to be some shipping changes.

There will be no RHD Model S/X at all until 2022.

There does seem to be a commitment of some LHD Model S reaching Europe by March and X later in the year. If Model S is to make it by March, they need to out of the factory in the next week or two to make it.

This is quite a lengthy delay

Yes The figures don't quite make sense and the demand from the domestic US market for the refreshed Model S may not be as strong as they expect - that extra $10K on the price will have an effect. There will certainly be enough domestic interest to take care of Q1 and probably all Q2's production but thereafter?

It also makes one ask what Tesla intend to do with the Tilburg line in the meantime.
 
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Mr Miserable

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Yesterday I was pondering about GRAND RUBY, well ponder ye not anymore, she will be loading at Pier 80 before GLOVIS COMPANION.
She is currently loitering off the coast until a berth becomes free in Benicia. Once she has unloaded there, the plan is to get her straight across to Pier 80 and to start loading immediately. The arrangements being made look like loading may commence as early as tomorrow night. More later....
 

Mr Miserable

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Lots to report today!

GLOVIS CAPTAIN has now entered the Atlantic and as expected does not appear to be following the standard great circle course but a much more easterly rhumb line towards the Azores. This is in an effort to avoid the worst of the forecasted Atlantic storms. It’s heartening to see good seamanship in a RoRo - it’s so often not the case with these ships.
She is maintaining over 18kts at the moment, I assume this to catch up for time lost in the choppy Caribbean the other day. I wouldn’t be surprised if she maintains that for as long as possible to get some miles in the ‘bank’ in case of encountering heavy weather ahead - the weekend is not looking great for her. I will plot her position on the chart showing the normal great circle route by way of comparison.
Her ETA for Zeebrugge is 6 Feb.

Glov CAPT Atlantic Progress Q121.png


HORIZON LEADER is racing down the Pacific coast with the benefit of both following winds and current and is already halfway down Mexico’s Baja California peninsula. The weather forecast for the next 24hrs looks good as does the longer term outlook.
My estimate for her arrival in Zeebrugge is 15 Feb.

The HORIZON LEADER competition remains open! ENTER HERE.
Nobody entered it yesterday! (That has never happened before) Come on! OK I suspect you are watching GLOVIS CAPTAIN’s progress and will base your entry on that, however I should warn you that a lot of you seem to be doing that!!

COSCO SHENGSHI has finally arrived at Pier 80 to load. She will be leaving tomorrow. I suspect she will be heading to the Far East.

GRAND RUBY will be the next ship to load at Pier 80 ahead of GLOVIS COMPANION. The plan is to get her alongside Pier 80 as soon as COSCO SHENGSHI departs and to commence loading immediately. There appears to be a sense of urgency about this ship but I’m wondering if this is being driven to ease congestion on the dock rather than any scheduling urgency. She will be heading to Europe and I have her pencilled in to arrive in Zeebrugge on 23 Feb.

GLOVIS CENTURY I’m pretty confident that this ship is loaded with the first MIC RHD Model 3s for UK and Ireland.
She is presently exiting the Straits of Malacca and entering the Adaman Sea north of Sumatra. There are no weather concerns at the moment.
She is due to arrive in Suez on 8 Feb and I estimate Southampton around 18 Feb

Century to Suez.png


MORNING CELLO I suspect this ship may be heading to the UK with Tesla Model 3s onboard too. She departed Shanghai on Monday and is currently in the South China Sea heading for Singapore. Like GLOVIS CENTURY before her, this may just be a bunkering (refuelling) stop. We won’t be able to confirm that she is UK bound until she leaves Suez in a couple of weeks. The seas in the South China Sea are due to get pretty rough over the next 24hrs.

GRAND CHOICE Another ship that departed Shanghai yesterday that is on my list of suspects. She is also heading to Singapore and is due to arrive there on 3 Feb. She will suffer from the rough seas that are forecast to build over the next 24 hrs.

TORONTO is presently loading in Shanghai and has long been tipped as a likely Tesla ship. I have had my doubts about this ship but the shocker is that it looks like she may be heading to Japan instead! Another reason why GRAND CHOICE may be worth keeping an eye on.


Shanghai is proving to be a difficult port to positively identify Tesla shipments. If only the Chinese drone pilots that seem to record every lump of cement being put in to the GF, took as much interest of what is being produced and on to which ships those products are being loaded they might have a wider audience.
 
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Mr Miserable

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I am probably wrong about TORONTO.
I may have just caught an AIS anomaly where its destination was populated with its departure point since it is now just showing Shanghai as destination - she came from Japan.
According to her schedule she should depart today for Suez. She still has a stop scheduled in Athens which I don't like. It could be a scheduling error but we won't know that until she departs Suez. Then again, she could be full of Polestars.......
 

Mr Miserable

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Jul 8, 2019
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More news!
It appears that LAKE GENEVA will be heading to Europe!
I suspect GLOVIS COMPANION which is still due to arrive at Pier 80 on 3 Feb will now head to the Far East.

UPDATE: GLOVIS COMPANION is still showing in schedules in Europe next month
 
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Medved_77

TM3 SR+ | MSM+Black | No FSD
Supporting Member
Jan 20, 2020
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Scotland
Shanghai is proving to be a difficult port to positively identify Tesla shipments. If only the Chinese drone pilots that seem to record every lump of cement being put in to the GF, took as much interest of what is being produced and on to which ships those products are being loaded they might have a wider audience.
Just an idea....

Code:
https://bit.ly/3qZEOLn
 

Llama.

Lurking somewhere up North.
Jan 25, 2021
281
161
Who knows?
Contact at Tesla in U.K. says my order for a LHD M3 LR AWD has been matched to a VIN for a car in a ship to to arrive on 16 February. This was unprompted and he was very specific about this date.

he wasn’t specific about port of arrival however.
 

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