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2021 Shipping Movements

muraliaix

Member
Jan 18, 2021
25
30
France
The Zeebrugge port schedule is unusually listing most of the ships from Pier 80 this quarter, with the conspicuous absence of LAKE GENEVA.
Although GLOVIS CAPTAIN is on schedule to arrive on 6 Feb, the Zeebrugge port schedule is now showing her as due at 01:00 on 7 Feb.
The schedule appears to have hedged its bets with HORIZON LEADER saying she will arrive on both 14 and 15 Feb. I'm going for the latter at the moment. We are in agreement on GRAND RUBY and GLOVIS COMPANION but are 1 day out on GLOVIS SIRIUS - I say 13 Mar and it says 12 Mar. It's 6 weeks away so I'm happy to adjust my estimate by one day. A question mark remains on LAKE GENEVA though.....

I read on a french forum that Lake geneva could be headed Far East? Maybe that's why it is not listed on arrival in Zeebrugge?
 

gadlim

New Member
Feb 1, 2021
4
0
France
Hi guys, Just to add into the mix; My order is for a RHD M3LR + towbar. I was matched and given a VIN by web chat on Monday 25th. I then received confirmation message on Tuesday morning with delivery scheduled 1st - 10th March.
Do you think there might be anything for us in the March 3rd budget ie reduced VAT in order to promote EV purchase? Might be worth holding out till the 4th, can’t see anything negative to EV owners being in the budget.
PS/ Brilliant info here, thanks to all contributors
Hi,

Out of curiosity, what are the 7 first characters of your VIN ? I'm checking for factory and battery type.
 

Vedaprime

Member
Feb 15, 2019
949
1,690
Brisbane
Hi,

Out of curiosity, what are the 7 first characters of your VIN ? I'm checking for factory and battery type.

I just posted about vin on the orders and delivery thread. We try to be vin free in this shipping thread.

do a google search on Tesla vin decoder and the first couple of results will give you a breakdown of it too
 
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Mr Miserable

Well-Known Member
Supporting Member
Jul 8, 2019
5,732
11,102
UK
11 ships to brief on today...

GLOVIS CAPTAIN
continues to make excellent progress whilst continuing in her quest to avoid the worst of the Atlantic weather. She is presently about 270nm WSW of Santa Maria in the Azores, still maintaining 17 kts but appears to have changed her course to an even more easterly one. It looks like that she now intends to pass to the east of the entire Azores archipelago rather than passing through them. This is a shrewd move and will definitely help to avoid the worst of the weather but the seas will continue to be pretty rough all the way to the English Channel. By my calculations she remains on schedule to make her ETA for Zeebrugge around lunchtime on Saturday although as reported yesterday the Zeebrugge port schedule has her arriving on Sunday.

Glov CAPT Atlantic Progress Q121.png


HORIZON LEADER is now off the S coast of Panama and has about 170 nm left to run to the Panama Canal entrance. Surprisingly she is still maintaining 20 kts which does make me wonder whether she has managed to obtain an earlier Canal transit. Normally I would expect her to anchor off the entrance until she joins the early morning northbound wave tomorrow. I shall keep an eye on her to see whether she joins the afternoon northbound wave later today. I will also post some further information on the Panama Canal and webcams etc later today.
My estimate for her arrival in Zeebrugge is 15 Feb.

Today will be the last day you can enter the HORIZON LEADER competition as it will close when she enters the Panama Canal, which may be sooner than we originally thought!

ENTER HERE.

Horizon Lead Pacific.png


GRAND RUBY remains alongside Pier 80 with her departure now delayed until 8 am local (4pm UK). I have her pencilled in to arrive in Zeebrugge on 23 Feb.

GLOVIS COMPANION continues to lurk just off the coast and won’t now arrive alongside Pier 80 until late tomorrow (Wed) night in preparation for loading to commence on Thursday. My ETA for her in Zeebrugge is 28 Feb.

LAKE GENEVA is due to arrive alongside Pier 80 on 10 Feb. I have her pencilled in to arrive in Zeebrugge on 7 Mar

GLOVIS SIRIUS will arrive at Pier 80 on 16 Feb. She will be the biggest ship of Q1 and I suspect probably the last ship of Q1 to Europe. I have pencilled her in to arrive in Zeebrugge around 13 Mar

GLOVIS CENTURY I’m pretty confident that this ship is loaded with the first MIC RHD Model 3s for UK and Ireland.
She is making good progress across the Arabian Sea and there are no weather concerns for her at the moment.
She is due to arrive in Suez on 8 Feb and I estimate Southampton around 18 Feb

Century to Suez.png


MORNING CELLO I suspect this ship may be heading to the UK with Tesla Model 3s onboard too.
She departed Singapore yesterday and I have not received a satellite-derived position report from her today. I have estimated her position on the chart. She is due to arrive in in Suez on 12 Feb and my estimate for her arrival in Southampton is now 21 Feb.

Morn Cello Sin Suez.png


GRAND CHOICE She departed Shanghai last Wednesday and is another ship that is on my list of suspects. She is just arriving in Singapore. There is a suggestion that although this ship is heading for Southampton she is on a stopping ‘all stations’ service and won’t arrive there until 11 Mar. This maybe true and the first indication of this being the case will be when she leaves Singapore and heads for Jeddah. This would normally rule it out from being a Tesla ship but I’m not sure the UK market is large enough at the moment to take a full shipment and so the UK Tesla portion of this ship may be only one or 2 deck fulls.

TORONTO is now in the South China Sea. She is due to arrive off Singapore on Friday. TORONTO is due to arrive in Zeebrugge on 26 Feb but may have a stop in Athens (which makes me wonder if this is really a Tesla ship).

MORNING CAPO This ship has arrived in Shanghai to load and has all the hallmarks of being a Tesla ship. She is due to leave tomorrow and to arrive in Zeebrugge on 6 Mar
 
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11 ships to brief on today...
MORNING CAPO This ship has arrived in Shanghai to load and has all the hallmarks of being a Tesla ship. She is due to leave tomorrow and to arrive in Zeebrugge on 6 Mar

Now you have be even more excited, as I am yet to be matched to a vehicle, but have been told that March is still looking likely for delivery. Am I correct to assume that vehicles will be matched or at least start showing up in Tesla inventory within 24 hours of the ship leaving?

How many more ships do you think will be making the journey from Shanghai to Zeebrugge/Southampton this quarter?
 

Mr Miserable

Well-Known Member
Supporting Member
Jul 8, 2019
5,732
11,102
UK
Now you have be even more excited, as I am yet to be matched to a vehicle, but have been told that March is still looking likely for delivery. Am I correct to assume that vehicles will be matched or at least start showing up in Tesla inventory within 24 hours of the ship leaving?

How many more ships do you think will be making the journey from Shanghai to Zeebrugge/Southampton this quarter?
I suspect MORNING CAPO and TORONTO will be only carrying LHD vehicles.
For this quarter anything going to Zeebrugge will highly likely be LHD only.
So the only ships of interest to us in the UK are GLOVIS CENTURY, MORNING CELLO and possibly GRAND CHOICE.
That's my view of the situation - it may not be right!

I think I have named all the ships for Q1 in today's report
 
Last edited:

Mr Miserable

Well-Known Member
Supporting Member
Jul 8, 2019
5,732
11,102
UK
HORIZON LEADER appears to be in no hurry as she approaches the entrance to the Panama Cana and so I expect her to anchor this evening just off the entrance to the canal.
She will have paid a fee to jump the queue and so I am pretty confident she will transit the canal tomorrow.
In the wee small hours of tomorrow morning a canal pilot will board the ship and she will then head up towards the first set of locks, the Miraflores locks. This is the first of a set of two locks which will lift the ship a total of 85ft. After Miraflores the ship will motor the short distance to the second set of locks, the Pedro Miguel Locks. The ship will now be level with Gatun lake and she can make her way to the final set of locks, the Gatun locks which will then lower the ship 85ft to the Caribbean in 3 stages.

The Panama Canal provides a shortcut for shipping travelling from the Pacific Ocean to the Atlantic Ocean and vice-versa. Instead of having to route to the south of South America and then back up, a distance of about 10,000 nm the canal offers a mere 51 mile transit. This comes at a big (normally well into 6 figures USD) price, calculated by a complicated formula, designed to maximise revenue to the canal operators. The original canal opened in 1914 and was an immediate success. In the first year it handled about 1000 ships and by 2008 it was handling nearly 15,000. These figures alone don’t tell the whole story because ships were getting bigger and bigger and one of the limits to the size of ships being built was the size of the locks in the Panama Canal. Ships that were built to fit (just) into the locks were described as Panamax ships. That is why so many cruise ships, container ships and car carriers are 32.3m wide and have a draft of under 12.6m.

The expansion of global trade and the increase in shipping meant that the canal was becoming a bottleneck with frequent delays and queues of ships waiting to transit. Fees for queue jumping became ever more expensive and ever more necessary to avoid delays. Alternatives to the canal were seriously being considered eg the NW passage and a number of alternative canal routes that avoided Panama completely. Panama relies on the income from the canal and could not afford for any of the alternatives plans to be viable and so the plan for the expansion to the existing canal system was commenced in 2007 and completed in 2016. This introduced two new sets of locks built parallel to the existing locks. Significantly, they now allow ships up to 366m long, 49m wide and with a draft of up to 15m to transit the canal. The new locks are of a modern design which use less water and are regarded as safer and more reliable too.

So a Panamax ship like HORIZON LEADER will use the old locks - Miraflores, Pedro Miguel and Gatun locks to transit whereas bigger ships like GLOVIS SIRIUS have to use the new locks at Cocoli and Agua Clara.

The canal is big business and so is generally a pretty slick operation entirely dependent on how much you have paid. The Tesla ships are normally booked in several weeks in advance and are given a pretty high priority. Delays of more than 24 hours are rare and normally we can expect the ships to start their northbound transit in the small hours of the morning and be in the Caribbean around 8 hours later.

There are webcams at the locks so you can watch the ships going through. The link to the webcams are here There are plenty of youtube videos and documentaries on the canal, its operation and construction, many of which are very good.

For HORIZON LEADER, I expect her to be at Miraflores around 6-7 am UK time tomorrow. By the time she reaches Gatun locks it will be daylight. I expect her to be in the Caribbean shortly after 3pm UK time.

cfabbfa9-7989-4d9f-82b9-fdbe12efee8a-png.582713


Thanks to @Mister J for providing the above graphic.
 

gadlim

New Member
Feb 1, 2021
4
0
France
I just posted about vin on the orders and delivery thread. We try to be vin free in this shipping thread.

do a google search on Tesla vin decoder and the first couple of results will give you a breakdown of it too
I know about the breakdown of the VIN, but unless I missed a post, nobody on the "orders and delivery" thread has posted a VIN part containing the 7th character, only 1rst 3 or last 3/6. Did you see that somewhere for the 2021 UK deliveries ?
 

Vedaprime

Member
Feb 15, 2019
949
1,690
Brisbane
I know about the breakdown of the VIN, but unless I missed a post, nobody on the "orders and delivery" thread has posted a VIN part containing the 7th character, only 1rst 3 or last 3/6. Did you see that somewhere for the 2021 UK deliveries ?

i refer you here VIN Decoder – TeslaTap

and discuss in the order and deliveries thread. This thread is vin free. It is about ship movements.
 
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