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2021 Shipping Movements

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Then these two shiploads are the difference between sales (201K) and production (206K) in Q2.
As of today, the Model Y LR and Perf are configurable, delivery in September.
Not sure yet if all Model Y will come from SHG or if they will not deliver the Perf together with the Model 3 Perf from SFO. So it will be exciting again.

Greets

Not sure if perf is already sold out but perf on my aunt's account (ordered ages ago in pt) switched from late 2021 to early 2022. Only appears to be LR that is deliverable in September.
 
My TM3 LR ordered at the start of the week and coming from China has just been announced to me for delivery between August 3 and 16 in France. So I imagine it’s already on a ship in transit somewhere ... but which one? Not easy to guess ...
Perhaps this is ur ship?

1625906953649.png
 

Mr Miserable

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I have reviewed all the 17 car carriers that are presently en route to Suez from the Far East to see whether I have missed a shipment.
Unless Tesla are shipping Q2 manufactured models (which they have done this quarter to Australia and Singapore) then I am reasonably happy we don't have a shipment on the way at the moment.

There is an outside chance that GLOVIS SUPERIOR may have a shipment on board but it'll be quite a small one if it has, since she only spent 12 hours alongside in Shanghai. This is a big ship and would take much longer to load fully. I don't think it's heading to the UK and so if it is a Tesla ship it's probably heading for Zeebrugge.

HOEGH OSLO is currently loading in Shanghai and has been tipped as a Tesla chartered ship. She is due to arrive in Zeebrugge on 14 Aug.
This surprised me for two reasons, firstly its size and secondly its route.
This is a shorter ship than a standard Panamax sized vessel so that means less cars can be loaded which makes the costs per car that much higher. Tesla have however used this ship twice before, the first being back in Q3 2019 when it inaugurated the 'quarter-end east coast bonus' shipment from Philly. Since all those cars were transported across America by road transporters to Philly I very much doubt more than 1500 cars were onboard.
The second occasion was in Feb 2020 when she was used for a run from Pier 80 to Shanghai. She spent less than 24 hours alongside Pier 80 which would be an indication of a partial load, even for this ship.
The ship is scheduled to stop in Misurata, Libya. I can't see this being on Tesla business. The date of arrival there has been updated to reflect the later than originally planned departure from Shanghai and so it looks as if the stop is still planned. Additionally the ship is scheduled to stop in Zeebrugge for less than 24 hrs - not long enough to unload the quantity of cars Tesla normally ship.
I therefore remain a little doubtful about HOEGH OSLO being a Tesla charter. If she has Teslas onboard it will be a small consignment.

So I'm still looking for suspects and I can't account for the planned French deliveries in early August.
HELIOS RAY is heading back to Shanghai and I'm still keeping an eye on GLOVIS SYMPHONY as I am hoping she will return too.
 
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Mr Miserable

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As expected, CSAV RIO NEVADO departed Pier 80 enroute to S Korea.
An interesting twist is that MONZA which was meant to be the 2nd ship to arrive at Pier 80 this quarter is no longer coming since she is already on her way to South Korea.
RCC EUROPE which was meant to be ship no 3, should now be No 2, but will she arrive or has she been cancelled too?
We shall see........
 
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Mr Miserable

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@Mr Miserable Tesla chat agent confirmed my car is on the way over on first ship, PAGNA 6/W - CN SHG-GB SOU

Does this name mean anything to you?
It certainly does!
Thanks for posting as I would never, ever, have picked this as a likely ship!

Screenshot 2021-07-12 at 12.50.20.png


She departed Shanghai on 3 Jul after just 12hrs loading (quite short - implying a partial load)
That is very early in Q3 and would suggest that the cars onboard were either manufactured on 1 July or more likely manufactured in Q2 which is very unusual for Tesla. We have seen cars delivered to Singapore and Australia so far this quarter that were actually made in Q2 and so we may have a new trend.
At 183m long, she is a little smaller than the 200m+ long ships Tesla usually charter and her routing suggests she may not be fully chartered, which is also unusual. This revelation also makes HOEGH OSLO and possibly even GLOVIS SUPERIOR contenders for Zeebrugge.
PAGNA is currently enroute to Singapore and is presently making just under 16 kts in the South China Sea about 400NM northwest of Brunei.
 
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Mr Miserable

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I forgot to mention timings.
I'm going to assume she routes direct from Singapore to Suez and then direct to Southampton.
On that basis she should arrive in Southampton around 3 August.
Based on delivery expectations in France she could be heading to Le Havre too.
We won't find out for sure where she's heading until she is through the Suez canal (around 27 July).
 
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