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2022 Austin Model Y vs 2021 Fremont Model Y

z335is

Member
Feb 7, 2019
49
38
Newark
I'm skeptical of most of the rumors being circulated here, BUT if they do turn out to be true, then kiss that resale value goodbye on current Ys. It will be a tough pill to swallow for man.
Now see, this scares me. If the upcoming changes are as radical as people are saying, then like you said, resale of the current Model Y goes from great to garbage very quickly. Most manufacturers would be cognizant of such a thing, but as we all know, Tesla does what they please.
 

CyberGus

Not Just a Member
May 5, 2020
826
1,798
Austin, TX
I’ll do you one better. My buddy, Emit Brown has a DeLorean, I’ll ask to see what the 2024 Model Y’s will look like.

runforitmarty.jpg
 

DarrenHD

Member
May 14, 2015
57
53
London, Canada
I fully expect Teslas to keep getting less expensive (or at least more feature laden for similar money) as batteries keep getting cheaper and manufacturing costs are driven down with better technology and more scale. Musk has consistently been pushing his vehicles into lower price points, and he has stated that he will continue to do so.

Are you sure? History tells otherwise. Look at the initial price of the Model S and look at the price now. Tesla has a history of cutting lower spec models, leaving only the higher end / larger battery versions remaining, which cost more. Model Y Standard range is a recent example.
 

bdwalters

Member
Feb 28, 2021
17
15
Austin
The only thing assured from a 400+ range Model Y is hundreds of forum threads about getting *only* 300 miles of range from it.

Looking at history, Tesla’s not been the type to suddenly throw in a huge increase in range. I’d expect more of a slight increase in range, along with slight decreases in weight and price, and maybe ONE more color and fewer misaligned panels.

That's my thinking as well, unless the competition really forces their hand. As the charging network gets better, it makes less sense to be carrying around a big, heavy, expensive battery pack. The build quality will continue to get better. We'll keep getting more features and upgraded materials. I bet we'll get a handful of new colors. (People are going to get really sick of looking at white Teslas as the volumes continue to grow.) I think the prices will hold steady or decrease.

I also think they'll start production in Austin with the 4680 cells. It would be a pain to built out the factory to produce cars without the structural battery pack and then have to shift the line over later. Of course if they can't produce enough 4680 batteries, they might have to consider doing that. I also expect the Model Y to be the first model produced in Austin. It is their volume leader, and it's something they know how to build already, so that should help them get the line moving quicker.
 
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blissdancer

Member
Jan 31, 2020
113
32
Salinas, CA
To reply to all the questions on why I started this thread : It's because my Model 3 is awesome and the Model Y is even better, but the body structure and battery cells/pack are being redesigned in Berlin, so I'm curious what people are predicting about the characteristics of the new Y when it comes out in Berlin this year and Austin early next year. Ideally the LR version will have crazy high range, less bumpy suspension, an awesome gaming computer, and $7,000 federal tax credit :) Yes I understand all the replies that it might be basically the same car. That's a valid point of view, but so is mine!
Why won’t they also make the redesigned Y at the Fremont plant?
 

Exelion

Member
Feb 21, 2021
104
116
Los Angeles, CA
Because they’ll probably crank out 3’s exclusively from that plant. It’s more efficient to use a line to make one car than to split a line to make two cars, even though both cars share about 75% of their parts.

S/X are made there too, but those are lower volume and have been made there since 10 years ago. Dont think they’ll relocate production of those.

As Tesla’s plants start coming online, they’ll refine their processes and I think we’ll see dedicated factories producing only one or two vehicle types for the entire world.
 
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T_Gravity

Member
Apr 5, 2021
12
5
Houston, Texas
I don't think they are going to increase the range at all with out decent price increase. There is no reason or incentive for Tesla to do it, there is no way competition is able to produce more range as they don't have the technology yet. What I believe is going to happen with 4860 is, they will keep the same range or slightly increase it to may be 350. With 4860's and the range of 350 and single piece front casting, they can produce more number of cars with a slightly smaller battery than they are using now and obviously more profit ( may be prices will be couple thousand less but not much). Elon multiples times expressed that they can not get enough batteries to build the cars so why increase the range with out any incentives. they don't have any problems selling cars with the current range anyway. Once the sales drop a little bit, then it makes sense to produce more range.

Now, the build quality, paint are going to improve tremendously. I believe that 400 and 500 range that everyone wishes for might happen with the redesign of the model y and 3 which is probably another 3 to 5 years away.
 

BMWY

Member
Mar 29, 2021
20
9
Newark
If even half of the rumored changes happen this year, then the scourge of people trying to trade in their current Ys (at a heavy loss no less) will be unprecedented. Should be interesting either way.
 
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DanDi58

Member
Jun 22, 2020
754
558
Dayton NJ
Because they’ll probably crank out 3’s exclusively from that plant. It’s more efficient to use a line to make one car than to split a line to make two cars, even though both cars share about 75% of their parts.

S/X are made there too, but those are lower volume and have been made there since 10 years ago. Dont think they’ll relocate production of those.

As Tesla’s plants start coming online, they’ll refine their processes and I think we’ll see dedicated factories producing only one or two vehicle types for the entire world.
Well, Elon has said in the past that the plan is to build cars for the particular market with a plant in that market. So that implies, for example, that Gigafactory in Berlin will build all of the models for the European market. Not sure if that is still the plan but that's what he indicated.
 

N1L CO2

Member
Jul 10, 2020
372
239
OC, CA
I am always intrigued by folks who hang their hat on what if's and could-a should-a's. To each their own but what a way to live life, in constant regret and remorse? Not my cup of tea. No one here has the power to control the "curve" thus will be impossible to stay ahead of it. As soon as you think you got the latest and the greatest, there always will be something new around the corner. Not just with Tesla but with other EV models. This IS the nature of the beast. EV technology is improving everyday!

I love my Y as-is. When I am ready to trade in for a new one (another Tesla or a different EV brand), I will take comfort in that it will still have a far better than average resale value compared to other premium brands (BMW, MBZs). I will take the best I can get and slide into the new one. Simple as that. :cool:
 
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steve86

Member
Jun 4, 2020
95
28
SoCal
I do feel regret not waiting longer after seeing the changes the 2021 models got and the potential changes in the 2022 models. The dual pane windows would have been nice and longer range batteries would be great too. At the end of the day. I bought the MY for the EV and AP. The idea of having to drive my former ICE car another year or two instead of the MY makes up for it and more. The few long drives I done in the Y has been fantastic. I would have been very grumpy in my ICE car after all the traffic I sat in. The price drop shortly after I got the MY did hurt though.
 

BlackM3

Member
Nov 2, 2017
158
165
Sherman Oaks, Los Angeles, CA

DanDi58

Member
Jun 22, 2020
754
558
Dayton NJ
Many changes to Tesla models are unannounced and minor. Or a major change that is a sudden surprise. But for Model Y, we have known for 6 months that the core structure of the Model Y is changing during 2021 in Berlin, with front body casting, 4680 battery cells, and new body structure. Model Y will be the first vehicle produced in both Berlin and Austin. Elon Musk confirms Tesla's new structural battery and cells are first going to Model Y at Giga Berlin - Electrek
You're assuming 1) that Gigafactory Berlin will come on line in 2021 (permit issues) and 2) that Elon's confirmation is correct (see: refreshed Model S/X deliveries in February 2021 - none delivered yet; still awaiting the 'fire' holiday 2020 update; all of his tweets and comments about FSD being fully autonomous by now). My point is, don't confuse his tweets and comments as hard-and-fast project plans. Especially in an article from October 2020. Just sayin'...
 

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