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2022 Austin Model Y vs 2021 Fremont Model Y
- Thread starter Sunshine Speed
- Start date
I'm with ya at this point. I might consider a MYLR w/ 4680 batteries but that would be a minimum at this point. Hoping also the FTC comes through. May order is now on hold until July 27th to see how things flush out.
I would say if the current range did not cause problems that are unacceptable for your needs and usage, no need to wait for the Texas MY. The Texas made MY mainly benefits Tesla corporation from the cost saving aspect. It is for sure that there will be a range increase, but that is not due to the new mega casting - Tesla can achieve the same effect using the current architecture, just they do not want to.
From a product management aspect, this is a typical example of customer expectation management. Tesla will push out rounds of new "enhancement" under a set pace. Each round will be attractive enough to motivate existing customers to buy a new one - if not, then Tesla PMs are not doing their job. So assume you waited until the Austin MY comes out to pull the trigger, then I am almost sure after a couple months, there will be new changes that makes you regret immediately "Ahhh, I should have waited a couple months longer to get these".
From a product management aspect, this is a typical example of customer expectation management. Tesla will push out rounds of new "enhancement" under a set pace. Each round will be attractive enough to motivate existing customers to buy a new one - if not, then Tesla PMs are not doing their job. So assume you waited until the Austin MY comes out to pull the trigger, then I am almost sure after a couple months, there will be new changes that makes you regret immediately "Ahhh, I should have waited a couple months longer to get these".
Tesla isn't going to magically given Austin Model Y's 400+ miles of range ... they might increase it slightly but will always opt for a smaller battery pack = lower costs first.
Agree with this. The Y doesn’t need 400-mile range to sell — demand is already through the roof. A smaller battery pack means more leftover 4680 batteries to put in, and sell, more cars.
I feel like the reports that the new Model S has a smaller battery pack leads me to believe that this is what they are more likely to do.
Although, the fact that they increased the MYP battery pack from ~78-82kWh is interesting. I'm not sure how exactly this fits into their battery size/efficiency strategy
I thought the 82 kWh was due to the extra 5% improvement in power density from new battery chemistry tweaks, not that they physically enlarged the battery pack. 78 * 1.05 is approximately 82.
A smaller pack with more density could improve acceleration just by the weight savings. Less weight would help the efficiency out around town too.
OP here. I still feel that the Texas Model Y LR will be delivered to regular customers in March, and it will have higher range (350 to 400 miles), 4680 cells in structural battery pack, lighter weight, faster acceleration. Other things the car might have are:
1) $10,000 refundable tax credit from Biden Jobs Act, or Clean Energy For America Act (already passed Senate Committee).
2) Better thicker paint
3) New MCU/gaming chip. Not PS5-level like Model S, but another chip in the same chipset family.
4) Cheaper standard range version with 250 mile range.
5) New FSD computer (HW4). Note that HW2 Tesla chip was Nov2016 to March2019, so HW3 Tesla chip could be March2019 to March2022.
I'm also hoping for an updated, more comfortable suspension and also sound deadening for cabin noise reduction at highway speeds. But I'm not counting on either of those.
Would I trade in my Model 3 and buy the Model Y right now, just before they refresh the Y with a brand new factory, new production equipment, and new battery pack and new body structure? HELLLLLLLLLL NO. What if I wasn't already driving a Tesla? Then maybe.
1) $10,000 refundable tax credit from Biden Jobs Act, or Clean Energy For America Act (already passed Senate Committee).
2) Better thicker paint
3) New MCU/gaming chip. Not PS5-level like Model S, but another chip in the same chipset family.
4) Cheaper standard range version with 250 mile range.
5) New FSD computer (HW4). Note that HW2 Tesla chip was Nov2016 to March2019, so HW3 Tesla chip could be March2019 to March2022.
I'm also hoping for an updated, more comfortable suspension and also sound deadening for cabin noise reduction at highway speeds. But I'm not counting on either of those.
Would I trade in my Model 3 and buy the Model Y right now, just before they refresh the Y with a brand new factory, new production equipment, and new battery pack and new body structure? HELLLLLLLLLL NO. What if I wasn't already driving a Tesla? Then maybe.
2021 model Y scan my Tesla battery size
I took a inventory model y which has VIN 88605, so should i expect all these features that we are talking about. like 82kwh battery, thicker steering wheel for heated steering wheel etc. Only Performance Y's are known to have the 82kW pack right now. So if you picked up a stock LR-AWD you...
teslamotorsclub.com
Respectfully, Tesla's history is NOT constant price increases. Perhaps since 2020 you may be correct. But, if you go thru the whole history (or, at least, 2012+) Tesla has continuousl added to the value of its cars, occasionally raising prices, frequently lowering prices.
Good post and I agree with most of your points.
I'm in a similar situation as you. We are looking to trade in one of our 2018 Model 3s for a Model Y. Wifey prefers the higher seating, we really want the storage and hatch back trunk, and our daughter is going to appreciate the reclining rear seats on road trips. So for sure we are going to make the change. The question is when.
On the one hand, I definitely agree with those that recommend buying the car as soon as you know you want it. One day you delay is one more day you don't get to own and drive the best vehicles out there. If we were replacing an ICE, we would have already ordered.
Trading in another Tesla, coupled with lots of rumors but no facts, makes this decision a bit trickier. If we knew some changes like 4680 cells, cast bodies, higher efficiency, better paint, EV tax credit, etc. were going to be available to us by a certain date (say March 2022), we would definitely wait. But with expected delays and uncertain features, I question whether we should just pull the trigger now. One other factor for those of us on the left coast is Elon indicating Austin builds would be for eastern US, while western US would still be serviced by Fremont. I hear those of you saying they will need to upgrade the Fremont factory to more closely match Austin's, but who knows how long that will take?
Last factor is expected sales price of our Model 3. I can't imagine we are not at some sort of peak in terms of pricing due to combination of pandemic ending, summer starting, graduation gifts, chip shortage that has temporarily reduced supply of autos in general, 2018 Model 3s not yet coming off leases (just starting now).
I know, this is very much a first world problem. But one I was not expecting so soon. I can't believe we're considering trading in a 3 year old car (we always drive our cars into the ground). But then again, I never expected we could sell our 3 year old car for pretty close to what we paid for it!
I was on the fence and wanted to wait for all the reasons you spoke about. Actually I wanted to go with the M3, but let's just say the wife won out and our kid is happier and we don't get the backs of our seats kicked. Anyway we bought the MY LR now. Main reason was the crazy trade values. It was a no brainer to bail now. We lost 3k on a 2 year old car. I thought if we hated the MY and saw there were enough upgrades, then assess in the future and maybe upgrade then. In the interim we got amazing money for our trade, if we decide to upgrade our MY, likely won't cost a lot given the demand, and the price just keeps going up.
If we had even waited a month, it would have already been 2k more. I have no idea if the tax credits will come back and that was part of my calculation but the extra we made on our trade + the lower price compared to waiting, means we are likely ahead even if they bring back the tax incentives. if you have a 2018 M3, I would sell it now and get the MY. You will appreciate all the upgrades and refinements. If you have the dual motor version though you'll likely miss the acceleration a bit.
If we had even waited a month, it would have already been 2k more. I have no idea if the tax credits will come back and that was part of my calculation but the extra we made on our trade + the lower price compared to waiting, means we are likely ahead even if they bring back the tax incentives. if you have a 2018 M3, I would sell it now and get the MY. You will appreciate all the upgrades and refinements. If you have the dual motor version though you'll likely miss the acceleration a bit.
My gut feeling tells me that Fremont and Austin will be updated at the same time, in fact it has probably already began. If not then I'll just specify an Austin delivery address, my buddy lives there. I can book a last-minute 1-way flight to pick up the car. Road trip home will be fun.
Agree with you, probably smart move to trade now. I'll be selling a Lexus LX470 and keeping my Model 3 for my wife to use, so this issue is not as relevant to me.
Bottom line is that I think the driving dynamics (ride quality, handling, weight, body flex) could be much-improved on the new version. There's no way I'm taking delivery until I test-drive the new one. Even if it's another year. But I suspect it will be around January for test drives.
Thanks; that makes perfect sense to me. In fact, I just placed an order for a LR MY. I figure we may as well get in the queue. We can always decide later to push out our delivery.
We would be trading in her LR RWD. We're keeping my 'Stealth' Performance Model 3. So we have enough acceleration fun. In fact, my opinion has been that I will continue to drive this for at least the next decade. Of course, now I have serious FOMO about the Plaid Model S, so we'll see how long I can hold out. But at least for now, I'm very happy with our decision to move forward.
Now, we just need to figure out how soon we want to sell....
Interesting thought. I also have a friend in Austin and can do the same thing if that's what it takes. In fact, I would love to take that road trip!
Well, I just placed an order. EDD is September, so I have some time to figure out whether I want to wait or not. Hopefully, we will get some direction, perhaps on the Q2 earnings call?
Congrats! Seems like a prudent approach. As you said you can push the order a bit, but at least lock the price in now. As for the stealth version, I wish they still made one for either the M3 or MY, that would have been my first choice. I had one originally on order and it kept getting pushed. When the potential delvery got pushed to the point there were no tax incentives, it looked a lot less attractive at that time. Especially since I had been waiting from the very first day you could order the M3.
Since there wasn't a stealth option for the M3 or MY now, we went with the next best choice for us. We ordered the MS LR. It will have all the performance we can use on the street. For the price of the Plaid, my wife will have the MY LR and I'll have the MS LR. It is a win-win especially given the early reports of how good the MS LR is and my wife is loving the MY.
Hope it all turns out well for you. As for exit, it is always hard to find the top. If it is very peaky, it can be really tricky. I don't feel I left much money on the table. I kept my ad on Craigslist for a while after I sold just to see how the demand was for the car we got rid of (an Acura). For us I think we sold pretty close to the peak and likely were within $500 of the peak. The way I looked at it, is I sold it a month earlier than planned. Saved 1 month car payment, maintenance and insurance. That worked out to be more than the potential increase I missed. One less month of something happening to it too.
Thanks, I feel good about the decision. And now that it's made, I'm inclined to take delivery from Fremont as soon as it's available rather than waiting for Austin.
The 'next best choice' is pretty damn good! The MY is going to be perfect for my wife and for road trips to Tahoe and SoCal, which we do pretty regularly. And you're getting a new, refreshed MS LR? Awesome! I'm too stingy to ever consider purchasing a $130K car; was mostly wishful thinking about getting a Plaid MS. The Stealth Performance M3 is perfect for me, at least for now.
Now I just have to time the sell of our Model 3. I don't think we can go 2-3 months with just one car, so we probably have to wait a bit to sell. Hope the market stays tight.
