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2022 Austin Model Y vs 2021 Fremont Model Y

WADan

Member
Sep 28, 2020
244
191
Bellevue WA
I had this same struggle when I decided to take delivery of my MY last June. I've enjoyed the car so much over this past year that I can say, without hesitation, I'm glad I didn't wait. With the rapid improvements all Tesla models have enjoyed over the years, logic will tell you that the old model values will plummet. Who would pay top dollar for a 2-3 year old car with inferior tech??? Well, just look at the prices for used Teslas over the years. For whatever reason, used Tesla cars hold their value quite well.

Tesla dropping the price of a new model hurts the resale value of an older model (naturally), but the newer tech doesn't seem to negatively impact it much.

My advice is to buy the car when you want to and enjoy it.
You never know when you will be run over by an 18 wheeler (or the next virus)!
 

YBLee

Member
May 12, 2021
7
2
02702
Yeah, I think I'm going to wait for an Texas Model Y or Cyber Truck.
I'm with ya at this point. I might consider a MYLR w/ 4680 batteries but that would be a minimum at this point. Hoping also the FTC comes through. May order is now on hold until July 27th to see how things flush out.
 

ElectricBro

Member
May 15, 2021
14
36
OC
I would say if the current range did not cause problems that are unacceptable for your needs and usage, no need to wait for the Texas MY. The Texas made MY mainly benefits Tesla corporation from the cost saving aspect. It is for sure that there will be a range increase, but that is not due to the new mega casting - Tesla can achieve the same effect using the current architecture, just they do not want to.

From a product management aspect, this is a typical example of customer expectation management. Tesla will push out rounds of new "enhancement" under a set pace. Each round will be attractive enough to motivate existing customers to buy a new one - if not, then Tesla PMs are not doing their job. So assume you waited until the Austin MY comes out to pull the trigger, then I am almost sure after a couple months, there will be new changes that makes you regret immediately "Ahhh, I should have waited a couple months longer to get these".
 
Oct 28, 2019
347
356
Texas
I would say if the current range did not cause problems that are unacceptable for your needs and usage, no need to wait for the Texas MY. The Texas made MY mainly benefits Tesla corporation from the cost saving aspect. It is for sure that there will be a range increase, but that is not due to the new mega casting - Tesla can achieve the same effect using the current architecture, just they do not want to.

From a product management aspect, this is a typical example of customer expectation management. Tesla will push out rounds of new "enhancement" under a set pace. Each round will be attractive enough to motivate existing customers to buy a new one - if not, then Tesla PMs are not doing their job. So assume you waited until the Austin MY comes out to pull the trigger, then I am almost sure after a couple months, there will be new changes that makes you regret immediately "Ahhh, I should have waited a couple months longer to get these".
Tesla isn't going to magically given Austin Model Y's 400+ miles of range ... they might increase it slightly but will always opt for a smaller battery pack = lower costs first.
 
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FatherTo1

Member
Mar 7, 2019
809
695
California
Tesla isn't going to magically given Austin Model Y's 400+ miles of range ... they might increase it slightly but will always opt for a smaller battery pack = lower costs first.
Agree with this. The Y doesn’t need 400-mile range to sell — demand is already through the roof. A smaller battery pack means more leftover 4680 batteries to put in, and sell, more cars.
 
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PNWLeccy

Member
Jul 11, 2019
970
770
Seattle
Tesla isn't going to magically given Austin Model Y's 400+ miles of range ... they might increase it slightly but will always opt for a smaller battery pack = lower costs first.
I feel like the reports that the new Model S has a smaller battery pack leads me to believe that this is what they are more likely to do.

Although, the fact that they increased the MYP battery pack from ~78-82kWh is interesting. I'm not sure how exactly this fits into their battery size/efficiency strategy
 

FatherTo1

Member
Mar 7, 2019
809
695
California
I feel like the reports that the new Model S has a smaller battery pack leads me to believe that this is what they are more likely to do.

Although, the fact that they increased the MYP battery pack from ~78-82kWh is interesting. I'm not sure how exactly this fits into their battery size/efficiency strategy
I thought the 82 kWh was due to the extra 5% improvement in power density from new battery chemistry tweaks, not that they physically enlarged the battery pack. 78 * 1.05 is approximately 82.
 

BlackM3

Member
Nov 2, 2017
168
182
Sherman Oaks, Los Angeles, CA
OP here. I still feel that the Texas Model Y LR will be delivered to regular customers in March, and it will have higher range (350 to 400 miles), 4680 cells in structural battery pack, lighter weight, faster acceleration. Other things the car might have are:
1) $10,000 refundable tax credit from Biden Jobs Act, or Clean Energy For America Act (already passed Senate Committee).
2) Better thicker paint
3) New MCU/gaming chip. Not PS5-level like Model S, but another chip in the same chipset family.
4) Cheaper standard range version with 250 mile range.
5) New FSD computer (HW4). Note that HW2 Tesla chip was Nov2016 to March2019, so HW3 Tesla chip could be March2019 to March2022.

I'm also hoping for an updated, more comfortable suspension and also sound deadening for cabin noise reduction at highway speeds. But I'm not counting on either of those.

Would I trade in my Model 3 and buy the Model Y right now, just before they refresh the Y with a brand new factory, new production equipment, and new battery pack and new body structure? HELLLLLLLLLL NO. What if I wasn't already driving a Tesla? Then maybe.
 
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PNWLeccy

Member
Jul 11, 2019
970
770
Seattle
I thought the 82 kWh was due to the extra 5% improvement in power density from new battery chemistry tweaks, not that they physically enlarged the battery pack. 78 * 1.05 is approximately 82.
 

fayeznajeeb

Member
Mar 16, 2021
6
4
San Diego, California
OP here. I still feel that the Texas Model Y LR will be delivered to regular customers in March, and it will have higher range (350 to 400 miles), 4680 cells in structural battery pack, lighter weight, faster acceleration. Other things the car might have are:
1) $10,000 refundable tax credit from Biden Jobs Act, or Clean Energy For America Act (already passed Senate Committee).
2) Better thicker paint
3) New MCU/gaming chip. Not PS5-level like Model S, but another chip in the same chipset family.
4) Cheaper standard range version with 250 mile range.
5) New FSD computer (HW4). Note that HW2 Tesla chip was Nov2016 to March2019, so HW3 Tesla chip could be March2019 to March2022.

I'm also hoping for an updated, more comfortable suspension and also sound deadening for cabin noise reduction at highway speeds. But I'm not counting on either of those.

Would I trade in my Model 3 and buy the Model Y right now, just before they refresh the Y with a brand new factory, new production equipment, and new battery pack and new body structure? HELLLLLLLLLL NO. What if I wasn't already driving a Tesla? Then maybe.
I can only wish what you say is true! :D
 

CSFTN

Member
Aug 24, 2014
934
513
Memphis, TN
Do we really think we will be able to get the more advanced/features in newer models at the same price as the ones now? Not likely. If history is any indication, Tesla will continue to move the $$$ price tags higher and higher as there is demand that exceeds supply.

You can argue that there is some bonafide competition out there now that will keep Tesla's price point in check. In my opinion, Ford, Audi, Rivian, Lucid is years away from evening coming close to having the charging infrastructure that Tesla has which means Tesla still has the advantage, even as the competition grows. I am not saying Tesla won't lose marketshare (it's already happening) but I've come to "trust" the charging network when I am making a 300 mile round trip to go play golf in San Diego with my buddies. I wouldn't be so at ease with an e-tron or mach-e.
Respectfully, Tesla's history is NOT constant price increases. Perhaps since 2020 you may be correct. But, if you go thru the whole history (or, at least, 2012+) Tesla has continuousl added to the value of its cars, occasionally raising prices, frequently lowering prices.
 

sroh

Supporting Member
Sep 10, 2017
650
2,242
San Jose, CA
OP here. I still feel that the Texas Model Y LR will be delivered to regular customers in March, and it will have higher range (350 to 400 miles), 4680 cells in structural battery pack, lighter weight, faster acceleration. Other things the car might have are:
1) $10,000 refundable tax credit from Biden Jobs Act, or Clean Energy For America Act (already passed Senate Committee).
2) Better thicker paint
3) New MCU/gaming chip. Not PS5-level like Model S, but another chip in the same chipset family.
4) Cheaper standard range version with 250 mile range.
5) New FSD computer (HW4). Note that HW2 Tesla chip was Nov2016 to March2019, so HW3 Tesla chip could be March2019 to March2022.

I'm also hoping for an updated, more comfortable suspension and also sound deadening for cabin noise reduction at highway speeds. But I'm not counting on either of those.

Would I trade in my Model 3 and buy the Model Y right now, just before they refresh the Y with a brand new factory, new production equipment, and new battery pack and new body structure? HELLLLLLLLLL NO. What if I wasn't already driving a Tesla? Then maybe.
Good post and I agree with most of your points.

I'm in a similar situation as you. We are looking to trade in one of our 2018 Model 3s for a Model Y. Wifey prefers the higher seating, we really want the storage and hatch back trunk, and our daughter is going to appreciate the reclining rear seats on road trips. So for sure we are going to make the change. The question is when.

On the one hand, I definitely agree with those that recommend buying the car as soon as you know you want it. One day you delay is one more day you don't get to own and drive the best vehicles out there. If we were replacing an ICE, we would have already ordered.

Trading in another Tesla, coupled with lots of rumors but no facts, makes this decision a bit trickier. If we knew some changes like 4680 cells, cast bodies, higher efficiency, better paint, EV tax credit, etc. were going to be available to us by a certain date (say March 2022), we would definitely wait. But with expected delays and uncertain features, I question whether we should just pull the trigger now. One other factor for those of us on the left coast is Elon indicating Austin builds would be for eastern US, while western US would still be serviced by Fremont. I hear those of you saying they will need to upgrade the Fremont factory to more closely match Austin's, but who knows how long that will take?

Last factor is expected sales price of our Model 3. I can't imagine we are not at some sort of peak in terms of pricing due to combination of pandemic ending, summer starting, graduation gifts, chip shortage that has temporarily reduced supply of autos in general, 2018 Model 3s not yet coming off leases (just starting now).

I know, this is very much a first world problem. But one I was not expecting so soon. I can't believe we're considering trading in a 3 year old car (we always drive our cars into the ground). But then again, I never expected we could sell our 3 year old car for pretty close to what we paid for it!
 

DayTrippin

Member
Apr 30, 2021
601
518
Jax
I was on the fence and wanted to wait for all the reasons you spoke about. Actually I wanted to go with the M3, but let's just say the wife won out and our kid is happier and we don't get the backs of our seats kicked. Anyway we bought the MY LR now. Main reason was the crazy trade values. It was a no brainer to bail now. We lost 3k on a 2 year old car. I thought if we hated the MY and saw there were enough upgrades, then assess in the future and maybe upgrade then. In the interim we got amazing money for our trade, if we decide to upgrade our MY, likely won't cost a lot given the demand, and the price just keeps going up.

If we had even waited a month, it would have already been 2k more. I have no idea if the tax credits will come back and that was part of my calculation but the extra we made on our trade + the lower price compared to waiting, means we are likely ahead even if they bring back the tax incentives. if you have a 2018 M3, I would sell it now and get the MY. You will appreciate all the upgrades and refinements. If you have the dual motor version though you'll likely miss the acceleration a bit.
 
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BlackM3

Member
Nov 2, 2017
168
182
Sherman Oaks, Los Angeles, CA
One other factor for those of us on the left coast is Elon indicating Austin builds would be for eastern US, while western US would still be serviced by Fremont. I hear those of you saying they will need to upgrade the Fremont factory to more closely match Austin's, but who knows how long that will take?
My gut feeling tells me that Fremont and Austin will be updated at the same time, in fact it has probably already began. If not then I'll just specify an Austin delivery address, my buddy lives there. I can book a last-minute 1-way flight to pick up the car. Road trip home will be fun.
Last factor is expected sales price of our Model 3. I can't imagine we are not at some sort of peak in terms of pricing due to combination of pandemic ending, summer starting, graduation gifts, chip shortage that has temporarily reduced supply of autos in general, 2018 Model 3s not yet coming off leases (just starting now).
Agree with you, probably smart move to trade now. I'll be selling a Lexus LX470 and keeping my Model 3 for my wife to use, so this issue is not as relevant to me.

Bottom line is that I think the driving dynamics (ride quality, handling, weight, body flex) could be much-improved on the new version. There's no way I'm taking delivery until I test-drive the new one. Even if it's another year. But I suspect it will be around January for test drives.
 

sroh

Supporting Member
Sep 10, 2017
650
2,242
San Jose, CA
I was on the fence and wanted to wait for all the reasons you spoke about. Actually I wanted to go with the M3, but let's just say the wife won out and our kid is happier and we don't get the backs of our seats kicked. Anyway we bought the MY LR now. Main reason was the crazy trade values. It was a no brainer to bail now. We lost 3k on a 2 year old car. I thought if we hated the MY and saw there were enough upgrades, then assess in the future and maybe upgrade then. In the interim we got amazing money for our trade, if we decide to upgrade our MY, likely won't cost a lot given the demand, and the price just keeps going up.

If we had even waited a month, it would have already been 2k more. I have no idea if the tax credits will come back and that was part of my calculation but the extra we made on our trade + the lower price compared to waiting, means we are likely ahead even if they bring back the tax incentives. if you have a 2018 M3, I would sell it now and get the MY. You will appreciate all the upgrades and refinements. If you have the dual motor version though you'll likely miss the acceleration a bit.
Thanks; that makes perfect sense to me. In fact, I just placed an order for a LR MY. I figure we may as well get in the queue. We can always decide later to push out our delivery.

We would be trading in her LR RWD. We're keeping my 'Stealth' Performance Model 3. So we have enough acceleration fun. In fact, my opinion has been that I will continue to drive this for at least the next decade. Of course, now I have serious FOMO about the Plaid Model S, so we'll see how long I can hold out. But at least for now, I'm very happy with our decision to move forward.

Now, we just need to figure out how soon we want to sell....
 

sroh

Supporting Member
Sep 10, 2017
650
2,242
San Jose, CA
My gut feeling tells me that Fremont and Austin will be updated at the same time, in fact it has probably already began. If not then I'll just specify an Austin delivery address, my buddy lives there. I can book a last-minute 1-way flight to pick up the car. Road trip home will be fun.
Interesting thought. I also have a friend in Austin and can do the same thing if that's what it takes. In fact, I would love to take that road trip!

Well, I just placed an order. EDD is September, so I have some time to figure out whether I want to wait or not. Hopefully, we will get some direction, perhaps on the Q2 earnings call?
 

DayTrippin

Member
Apr 30, 2021
601
518
Jax
Thanks; that makes perfect sense to me. In fact, I just placed an order for a LR MY. I figure we may as well get in the queue. We can always decide later to push out our delivery.

We would be trading in her LR RWD. We're keeping my 'Stealth' Performance Model 3. So we have enough acceleration fun. In fact, my opinion has been that I will continue to drive this for at least the next decade. Of course, now I have serious FOMO about the Plaid Model S, so we'll see how long I can hold out. But at least for now, I'm very happy with our decision to move forward.

Now, we just need to figure out how soon we want to sell....
Congrats! Seems like a prudent approach. As you said you can push the order a bit, but at least lock the price in now. As for the stealth version, I wish they still made one for either the M3 or MY, that would have been my first choice. I had one originally on order and it kept getting pushed. When the potential delvery got pushed to the point there were no tax incentives, it looked a lot less attractive at that time. Especially since I had been waiting from the very first day you could order the M3.

Since there wasn't a stealth option for the M3 or MY now, we went with the next best choice for us. We ordered the MS LR. It will have all the performance we can use on the street. For the price of the Plaid, my wife will have the MY LR and I'll have the MS LR. It is a win-win especially given the early reports of how good the MS LR is and my wife is loving the MY.

Hope it all turns out well for you. As for exit, it is always hard to find the top. If it is very peaky, it can be really tricky. I don't feel I left much money on the table. I kept my ad on Craigslist for a while after I sold just to see how the demand was for the car we got rid of (an Acura). For us I think we sold pretty close to the peak and likely were within $500 of the peak. The way I looked at it, is I sold it a month earlier than planned. Saved 1 month car payment, maintenance and insurance. That worked out to be more than the potential increase I missed. One less month of something happening to it too.
 
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sroh

Supporting Member
Sep 10, 2017
650
2,242
San Jose, CA
Congrats! Seems like a prudent approach. As you said you can push the order a bit, but at least lock the price in now. As for the stealth version, I wish they still made one for either the M3 or MY, that would have been my first choice. I had one originally on order and it kept getting pushed. When the potential delvery got pushed to the point there were no tax incentives, it looked a lot less attractive at that time. Especially since I had been waiting from the very first day you could order the M3.

Since there wasn't a stealth option for the M3 or MY now, we went with the next best choice for us. We ordered the MS LR. It will have all the performance we can use on the street. For the price of the Plaid, my wife will have the MY LR and I'll have the MS LR. It is a win-win especially given the early reports of how good the MS LR is and my wife is loving the MY.

Hope it all turns out well for you. As for exit, it is always hard to find the top. If it is very peaky, it can be really tricky. I don't feel I left much money on the table. I kept my ad on Craigslist for a while after I sold just to see how the demand was for the car we got rid of (an Acura). For us I think we sold pretty close to the peak and likely were within $500 of the peak. The way I looked at it, is I sold it a month earlier than planned. Saved 1 month car payment, maintenance and insurance. That worked out to be more than the potential increase I missed. One less month of something happening to it too.
Thanks, I feel good about the decision. And now that it's made, I'm inclined to take delivery from Fremont as soon as it's available rather than waiting for Austin.

The 'next best choice' is pretty damn good! The MY is going to be perfect for my wife and for road trips to Tahoe and SoCal, which we do pretty regularly. And you're getting a new, refreshed MS LR? Awesome! I'm too stingy to ever consider purchasing a $130K car; was mostly wishful thinking about getting a Plaid MS. The Stealth Performance M3 is perfect for me, at least for now.

Now I just have to time the sell of our Model 3. I don't think we can go 2-3 months with just one car, so we probably have to wait a bit to sell. Hope the market stays tight.
 

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