Sunderland boy
Member
When I got my last Tesla the ship stoped at France 1st Southampton 2nd zeebrugge so the ship had a mixture of left and right hand drive. So I don’t get the point of worrying.
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2022 Shipping Movements
- Thread starter Mr Miserable
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Evening all! Thursday 26 May update.
First of all, take a look at @Frizzy ’s terrific Google Map to see where the ships are. He’s improving it daily but it is already up to the mark. Thank you!
GLOVIS SPLENDOR is due to arrive in Koper on 01 Jun.
She currently continues her progress northwards through the Red Sea towards Suez and remains on schedule.
I’m still inclined to think that she will unload completely in Koper.
THEBEN is bound for Zeebrugge where she is due to arrive on 14 Jun.
She has rounded the southern tip of Sri Lanka and is now in slightly less choppy waters than she has endured over the last few days. It’s only a temporary respite though. She has plenty of time in hand to make it to Suez for 04 Jun.
Why not enter the THEBEN competition? It’s free and just for fun. 89 entries so far, still a little lower than I would expect based on previous comps, so the odds are in your favour! Click here to enter.
RCC EUROPE All the indications are that she is a Tesla ship and she is heading to Southampton. I’m not sure whether she will continue on to Zeebrugge though as there is a lack of VIN activity that I can associate with this ship. In the meantime, she has made it to Singapore for a pitstop refuel. I can’t be sure what caused the delay yesterday but whatever it was it has already put her 24 hrs behind her original schedule. We shall have to see whether she attempts to make up time on her next leg to Suez. I’m expecting to see an ETA for Suez of 08 Jun - anything earlier than that means she is going to make a dash.
THEMIS LEADER is looking good for a shipment to Dubai and could also be carrying cars for Singapore too.
HORIZON LEADER is a confirmed Tesla ship and departed Shanghai earlier this afternoon for a pitstop refuel off Singapore on 31 May. She is flooring it too at nearly 20kts! We don’t know her ultimate destination - it could be Southampton, or Southampton and Zeebrugge, or just Zeebrugge. It could even be to Koper only, although the way she is sprinting to Singapore makes me think this is less likely. That said, the messages going out from Tesla UK at the moment are giving me the impression that there may only be only one shipment this quarter, in which case this ship is likely to be heading to Zeebrugge. Hopefully a flurry of VINs in the next day or so may give us further clues (and prove me wrong!)
There is still time for another shipment to Koper and so I’m looking for possible candidates however there is nothing obvious out there.
CARRERA and ARC COMMITMENT are unusual visitors to Shanghai, at a time when other ships are still diverting away from Shanghai because of shoreside lockdown difficulties, and so they have tweaked my interest. They may not turn out to be Tesla ships in the end but they have scored enough to be listed on my suspect list for the moment.
Links to the competition, location charts and other items of interest are on Frizzy's link tree here.
First of all, take a look at @Frizzy ’s terrific Google Map to see where the ships are. He’s improving it daily but it is already up to the mark. Thank you!
GLOVIS SPLENDOR is due to arrive in Koper on 01 Jun.
She currently continues her progress northwards through the Red Sea towards Suez and remains on schedule.
I’m still inclined to think that she will unload completely in Koper.
THEBEN is bound for Zeebrugge where she is due to arrive on 14 Jun.
She has rounded the southern tip of Sri Lanka and is now in slightly less choppy waters than she has endured over the last few days. It’s only a temporary respite though. She has plenty of time in hand to make it to Suez for 04 Jun.
Why not enter the THEBEN competition? It’s free and just for fun. 89 entries so far, still a little lower than I would expect based on previous comps, so the odds are in your favour! Click here to enter.
RCC EUROPE All the indications are that she is a Tesla ship and she is heading to Southampton. I’m not sure whether she will continue on to Zeebrugge though as there is a lack of VIN activity that I can associate with this ship. In the meantime, she has made it to Singapore for a pitstop refuel. I can’t be sure what caused the delay yesterday but whatever it was it has already put her 24 hrs behind her original schedule. We shall have to see whether she attempts to make up time on her next leg to Suez. I’m expecting to see an ETA for Suez of 08 Jun - anything earlier than that means she is going to make a dash.
THEMIS LEADER is looking good for a shipment to Dubai and could also be carrying cars for Singapore too.
HORIZON LEADER is a confirmed Tesla ship and departed Shanghai earlier this afternoon for a pitstop refuel off Singapore on 31 May. She is flooring it too at nearly 20kts! We don’t know her ultimate destination - it could be Southampton, or Southampton and Zeebrugge, or just Zeebrugge. It could even be to Koper only, although the way she is sprinting to Singapore makes me think this is less likely. That said, the messages going out from Tesla UK at the moment are giving me the impression that there may only be only one shipment this quarter, in which case this ship is likely to be heading to Zeebrugge. Hopefully a flurry of VINs in the next day or so may give us further clues (and prove me wrong!)
There is still time for another shipment to Koper and so I’m looking for possible candidates however there is nothing obvious out there.
CARRERA and ARC COMMITMENT are unusual visitors to Shanghai, at a time when other ships are still diverting away from Shanghai because of shoreside lockdown difficulties, and so they have tweaked my interest. They may not turn out to be Tesla ships in the end but they have scored enough to be listed on my suspect list for the moment.
Links to the competition, location charts and other items of interest are on Frizzy's link tree here.
Don’t worry about lhd or rhd. Worry that there’s only 4 confirmed ships this quarter (so far) compared to 15 last quarter.
Sunderland boy
Member
What I was trying to say but it didn’t come across well, if you see a video of a ship been loaded with left hand drive cars it doesn’t mean they won’t be loading right had side cars at some point,especially when the ship stops in France, Southampton, zeebrugge , Norway. Ships that stop off at these ports will obviously have mixed drive cars on it.
Also Tesla never give anyone a “Promise” when they will receive delivery of their cars that’s why EDD is only a guide and not a promise
Used promise as I didn't think of a more appropriate word
made a little investigation of the video, so that makes me write what I did.. but you are actually right - you never know what was loaded.I had to read this post 1 a few times for it to make sense to me, so others may be in the same situation.
Assuming my understanding is correct, they won't be producing any cars in June (Q2) for the UK (or other far afield markets) as the long shipping time means they won't be delivered/paid for until July (Q3). Therefore all cars produced closer to the end of quarter deadline will be sold locally. And then they will ramp up export again at the start of quarter, which means we'll start to see more in the UK in August. Right?
There isn't one because if someone drops out the list the day before delivery, you may even get a call...
Tesla chat said to me if I don't have a VIN by next Friday then it's most likely August/September delivery
In Feb 19 the GOLDEN RAY docked at Pier 80 and loaded its precious Tesla cargo and departed for China.
This was a comparatively new ship entering service in 2017, benefitting from a modern bridge and all the advantages that modern computer technology can bring. Although like many other pure vehicle carriers she was 200 metres long she was a bit wider at just over 35 metres. That extra width allowed her to carry up to 7700 cars. She left Pier 80 on 13 Feb 19 and arrived safely in Shanghai on 1 Mar 19. So what? The point is look what happened to this modern ship just 6 months later....
On 8 Sep 19 the GOLDEN RAY was leaving Brunswick, Georgia en route to Baltimore. She had onboard about 4500 Kia and Hyundai cars and as she entered the Atlantic she started to list. In an action reminscent of the HOEGH OSAKA incident in the Solent in Jan 2015, the local pilot immediately steered the vessel towards shallow water to prevent a total capsize. 23 crew members were rescued unharmed although for 3 of them trapped in the engine room with an uncontrolled fire it was a close run thing. The HOEGH OSAKA was refloated by the salvage company, subsequently repaired and quickly returned to service. That's not the case with the GOLDEN RAY - she had to be totally dismantled in situ in a salvage operation that would take 2 years to complete at enormous cost.
The US NTSB report into the GOLDEN RAY accident and the UK Maritime Accident Investigation Branch report on the HOEGH OSAKA incident make interesting reading. Additionally I think it was @XHabjab who posted a link to an interesting article on the salvaging of GOLDEN RAY.
Vehicle carriers do not have a good safety record. The accidents and incidents can be largely grouped into 2 different cause groups - Fire and Instability.
Let’s look at fires first of all. 6 major fires since January 2019 that I am aware of:
January 2019 SINCERITY ACE caught fire whilst crossing the Pacific with 3500 Nissans on board. 5 Crewman died
March 2019 GRANDE AMERICA caught fire and sank in the Bay of Biscay
May 2019 GRANDE EUROPA caught fire whilst off the Spanish coast in the Mediterranean. It had no less than 2 separate fires in brand new vehicles within the space of 4 hours.
June 2019 DIAMOND HIGHWAY was abandoned in the South China Sea because of a fire onboard.
June 2020 HOEGH XIAMEN caught fire whilst loading at Jacksonville Florida. Despite the fire service being on scene very quickly and using drones with IR cameras to detect hot spots, the ship continued to burn for days and was a total loss. This fire was very concerning since if a fire cannot be extinguished when alongside with the benefit of a fully equipped fire service using fire boats and all the latest technology, what chance would it have at sea?
February 2022 FELICITY ACE caught fire south of the Azores. Everyone onboard was rescued but the ship completely burnt out and later sank. Needless to say EV batteries were given as to the reason why the fire could not be extinguished.
The causation of most of these fires is put down to car batteries, that’s normal ICE 12V car batteries on brand new cars. No, I don’t suppose you read about these horrific incidents in the Daily Mail since they didn’t involve a Tesla!
The other major issue with these ships is their stability or rather, potential instability. Generally there are 2 reasons for stability issues the first of which is water ingress and the second is failing to ballast or trim the vessel properly. Occasionally the latter leads to the former.
Typing the following incidents into a search engine will produce an eye-opening read.
Dec 02 TRICOLOR Enroute from Zeebrugge to Southampton sank following collision. Notoriously hit twice more by 2 different vessels.
Jul 06 COUGAR ACE Developed a severe list
Dec 12 BALTIC ACE 11 died following a collision
Jan 15 HOEGH OSAKA Developed a severe list
Jan 16 MODERN EXPRESS Severe list
Sep 19 GOLDEN RAY Capsized
Sep 21 IVAN Partially sinks whilst loading in Algiers. 1 killed
This was a comparatively new ship entering service in 2017, benefitting from a modern bridge and all the advantages that modern computer technology can bring. Although like many other pure vehicle carriers she was 200 metres long she was a bit wider at just over 35 metres. That extra width allowed her to carry up to 7700 cars. She left Pier 80 on 13 Feb 19 and arrived safely in Shanghai on 1 Mar 19. So what? The point is look what happened to this modern ship just 6 months later....
On 8 Sep 19 the GOLDEN RAY was leaving Brunswick, Georgia en route to Baltimore. She had onboard about 4500 Kia and Hyundai cars and as she entered the Atlantic she started to list. In an action reminscent of the HOEGH OSAKA incident in the Solent in Jan 2015, the local pilot immediately steered the vessel towards shallow water to prevent a total capsize. 23 crew members were rescued unharmed although for 3 of them trapped in the engine room with an uncontrolled fire it was a close run thing. The HOEGH OSAKA was refloated by the salvage company, subsequently repaired and quickly returned to service. That's not the case with the GOLDEN RAY - she had to be totally dismantled in situ in a salvage operation that would take 2 years to complete at enormous cost.
The US NTSB report into the GOLDEN RAY accident and the UK Maritime Accident Investigation Branch report on the HOEGH OSAKA incident make interesting reading. Additionally I think it was @XHabjab who posted a link to an interesting article on the salvaging of GOLDEN RAY.
Vehicle carriers do not have a good safety record. The accidents and incidents can be largely grouped into 2 different cause groups - Fire and Instability.
Let’s look at fires first of all. 6 major fires since January 2019 that I am aware of:
January 2019 SINCERITY ACE caught fire whilst crossing the Pacific with 3500 Nissans on board. 5 Crewman died
March 2019 GRANDE AMERICA caught fire and sank in the Bay of Biscay
May 2019 GRANDE EUROPA caught fire whilst off the Spanish coast in the Mediterranean. It had no less than 2 separate fires in brand new vehicles within the space of 4 hours.
June 2019 DIAMOND HIGHWAY was abandoned in the South China Sea because of a fire onboard.
June 2020 HOEGH XIAMEN caught fire whilst loading at Jacksonville Florida. Despite the fire service being on scene very quickly and using drones with IR cameras to detect hot spots, the ship continued to burn for days and was a total loss. This fire was very concerning since if a fire cannot be extinguished when alongside with the benefit of a fully equipped fire service using fire boats and all the latest technology, what chance would it have at sea?
February 2022 FELICITY ACE caught fire south of the Azores. Everyone onboard was rescued but the ship completely burnt out and later sank. Needless to say EV batteries were given as to the reason why the fire could not be extinguished.
The causation of most of these fires is put down to car batteries, that’s normal ICE 12V car batteries on brand new cars. No, I don’t suppose you read about these horrific incidents in the Daily Mail since they didn’t involve a Tesla!
The other major issue with these ships is their stability or rather, potential instability. Generally there are 2 reasons for stability issues the first of which is water ingress and the second is failing to ballast or trim the vessel properly. Occasionally the latter leads to the former.
Typing the following incidents into a search engine will produce an eye-opening read.
Dec 02 TRICOLOR Enroute from Zeebrugge to Southampton sank following collision. Notoriously hit twice more by 2 different vessels.
Jul 06 COUGAR ACE Developed a severe list
Dec 12 BALTIC ACE 11 died following a collision
Jan 15 HOEGH OSAKA Developed a severe list
Jan 16 MODERN EXPRESS Severe list
Sep 19 GOLDEN RAY Capsized
Sep 21 IVAN Partially sinks whilst loading in Algiers. 1 killed
You know I was joking earlier when I said I was worrying about the ship sinking. Thanks for
Hmmmmm....
So after a recalc of some distance vs speed (16 kts est), and plotted on a map with some napkin math - allowing around a day for Suez, and assuming she leaves now(ish) I seem to be calculating an ETA for RCC EUROPE in to Southampton around the 18th June. Am I being overly pessimistic?
So after a recalc of some distance vs speed (16 kts est), and plotted on a map with some napkin math - allowing around a day for Suez, and assuming she leaves now(ish) I seem to be calculating an ETA for RCC EUROPE in to Southampton around the 18th June. Am I being overly pessimistic?
Real Reado
Member
I was told yesterday by a Tesla employee that unlike their normal practice of not shipping cars in the first month of a new quarter, because of the sheer demand, order backlog, plus production levels hampered by Covid lockdowns, they would keep going as long as they had cars and ships to transport.
Then another person on the same number contradicted that today!
S3XY T3SLA
Member
To quote Mr M’s post of 9pm yesterday ‘I originally estimated an arrival around 17 Jun but that has already slipped to 18 Jun now. She could make up time but I will adjust the ETA when I see what speed she resumes her voyage at.’ Looks like you both have the same calculator but depends on how quickly she responds to her suckling at Singapore.
not sure why you're so sure about this anymore now, this isn't normal quarter anymore. In fact, according to this logic, there shouldn't even be anymore ship to set sail to europe until july. horizon leader shipment can't even be delivered before june end, more likely early july, so I would think it's a fair asumption to say there will be deliveries in july.
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