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2022 Shipping Movements

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It's worth having a look at Troy Teslike's forecasts on Twitter - he is forecasting only 7,000 MY to be shipped from Shanghai to EU in Q4 (he reckons it was over 29,000 in Q3).
As for grey - Tesla don't do grey, they do Midnight Silver Metallic! Like wot I have. It's not unusual to pitch up at a Supercharger site and for all the cars charging to be to grey MSM.
I saw that (prediction) and thought surely he must be wrong, but maybe not, that's a lot of production (MIC) to sell in China alone. What will you do with yourself if there are few ships to monitor 😱
 
I saw that (prediction) and thought surely he must be wrong, but maybe not, that's a lot of production (MIC) to sell in China alone. What will you do with yourself if there are few ships to monitor 😱
I still reckon on 9 ships from Shanghai in Q4 and possibly 2 from Pier 80! That's enough to keep me busy.
 
Mr M., Not Tesla I appreciate, but any idea what Morning Laura is bringing from Gwangyang and Masan in Korea to Norway, I'm guessing it's likely to be a lot of EV?
Also, I'm still interested to know what Seine Highway is bringing from Shanghai to Zeebrugge
I'm sorry I missed this post. I believe MORNING LAURA is doing some work for Stellantis. I have no idea about SEINE HIGHWAY.
 
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It seems a good number of users on this forum have updated EDD's (I know, I know...) for mid Nov to just before Christmas. Departures by 14th Oct and 30 day transit puts us right within that window...
Just checked my EDD and it’s moved from Nov 11 - Jan 5 to Nov 20 - Dec 27. No idea how accurate this will prove to be but all fun chasing the actual delivery day
 
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Tesla is changing their shipping style.


Giga Shanghai appears to have switched Model Y production to exports on Sep 21. Buyers from Australia and Japan started reporting receiving VINs on Sep 21. Normally, they would switch on Sep 26. This will help with Q4 deliveries.

... which means that they are manufacturing and shipping over the Q3/Q4 seam.
 
Tesla is changing their shipping style.




... which means that they are manufacturing and shipping over the Q3/Q4 seam.
That's quite a bold statement in the absence of identified shipping!!
It is interesting though - I have been expecting a shipment to Japan imminently and am hoping PULAU TIOMAN will fit the bill however the cars should still arrive in Japan prior to the end of Q3.
As for Australia, we have just seen NEPTUNE LEADER depart from the main Haitong terminal to Port Kembla (06 Oct). If that is a Tesla shipment then the choice to use the Haitong terminal is a bit strange. Do the EDDs in Oz tie in with this ship? We shall see.....
MORNING CRYSTAL should depart Shanghai on 05 Oct for Oz and would have been my bet.
Having said that, I see Tesla are offering incentives in China for deliveries before the end of quarter - is the Chinese domestic market saturated at the moment?

UPDATE Whilst I see someone in OZ has an invoice for MY with a build date of 21 Sep, the delivery date remains end of Oct.
 
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PULAU TIOMAN has departed to Yokohama, Japan. This will be the Tesla shipment to Japan I have been expecting.
It will arrive there on 28 Sep and so does not straddle the quarter-end but it is proabably too much to expect Tesla Japan to be able to deliver them all by Friday night.

I remain to be convinced that anything is enroute to Australia at the moment.

The good news is that it's pretty clear that at least one of the production lines was configured for RHD production so that could mean we should be looking for a shipment to the UK late next week (after 01 Oct).
 
Taiwan has opened orders for Model Y, and apparently they will come from Giga Berlin starting in Q4.
It will be significantly cheaper to ship them from Berlin than Fremont at the moment so there is a kind of logic behind this.
There are lots of empty ships presently on the EU to Asia routes. That may change if and when the EU car industry gets back in business but projections for the next year at least would suggest that isn't going to happen as fast as some are hoping.
The flip side is that MS/MX unit costs to Taiwan will now be much more expensive.
 
They have just taken a loooooong time to process from sunrise it’s seems!
I would agree and the feedback from the delivery centres is that there is no sense of rush either. It would seem that lessons learned from previous quarters have been actioned - handovers are not rushed, cars are properly prepared, delivery centres are properly manned and the staff appear unpressured. It seems that Tesla have matured in their outlook and management are doing management sxxt.
I hope it can be repeated over the forthcoming Christmas.
 
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