2022 Solo Nats [2022 Tire Rack SCCA Solo Nationals]

[The Other Dan]

(moderator note)

link to event information OP is discussing added)

2022 Tire Rack SCCA Solo Nationals

SCCA - National - National Solo on Tuesday, September 6, 2022 - Friday, September 9, 2022 at Lincoln Airpark, Lincoln, NE - The SCCA® Solo® National Championship - known as "Solo Nationals" – is where more than 1,300 autocrossers come from across the country to meet and compete in one of the...

www.motorsportreg.com

========================================

2022 Solo Nats
With Nats going on, thought I start a thread discussing it. Trying to keep it somewhat Tesla related, threw I. These to questions for discussion as well.

Do we have any members running Nats this year in a Tesla or otherwise?

I know of Dallas J in SM, running his Mitsubishi EVO. Currently in 2nd place after the first day, 0.2sec from. 1st.

Given the current spec of EV-X, where do you think it would fall with the current results?

 

[dsgerbc]

Live timing available here.
EV-X is running tomorrow/Friday.

 

[gearchruncher]

Given the current spec of EV-X, where do you think it would fall with the current results?

My prediction is that despite EV-X being indexed as significantly faster at AutoX than every production car ever made, an EV-X car will not come within 3 seconds of the top SS time. Last year the closest SS Model 3 was 8 seconds off top SS time, and even on hooisers in ASP they were 2-8 seconds off the SS time. They won't beat STU either.

I hope Andrew, Mark, and Matt (the 3 registered EV-X drivers) kick butt and have a good time though, but I also kind of privately hope that their results help fix the EV-X index.

 

[jjrandorin]

(Moderator note)

I included the link to information about the event in the OPs post, and edited the thread title. They are not sponsors here but I dont consider this advertising or anything, just a discussion about a motorsports event. I thought having the link and full event title might make it a bit more clear what was being discussed.

If I got the event that was being discussed wrong, let me know.

 

[dsgerbc]

despite EV-X being indexed as significantly faster at AutoX than every production car ever made

Eh, plenty of production cars go straight into SSP.

Comparing raw times with SS (or any other reasonable class on street tires) will be somewhat hard since the EVX class is running with a bunch of Ladies classes, GS, and some CAM classes. By bet is that top GS people will PAX EVX drivers comfortably.

 

[gearchruncher]

Eh, plenty of production cars go straight into SSP.

Your point is taken, and I went a bit over the top. But I don't know about "plenty". I think the only competitive SS production cars pushed to SSP would be the 2022 NSX and the Ford GT? And of course, they are then immediately allowed to run Hoosiers and do tons of mods in SSP. A Model 3 isn't even allowed to run in SSP or SSR, but can run ASP on Hoosiers with "limited prep."

SS literally has the rule “Catch-all”: All eligible unclassified cars not covered by another catch-all listing." - So it pretty much is meant to be the absolute fastest production cars ever made, but the EV-X index assumes way quicker than that despite very thin evidence this is true.

Comparing raw times with SS (or any other reasonable class on street tires) will be somewhat hard since the EVX class is running with a bunch of Ladies classes, GS, and some CAM classes. By bet is that top GS people will PAX EVX drivers comfortably.

Weather looks similar this week for Thurs/Friday, so not sure how much that matters. But that's kind of my point- if PAX is accurate, we should not have GS always beating EV-X. The current EV-X basically PAX makes it impossible for a Model 3 (The only competitive EV-X car) to actually win PAX, and there is no evidence that anyone can actually compete on PAX in an EV. So we're just stuck in this competing with ourselves corner, with anyone looking at PAX thinking everyone that drives an EV is a mediocre driver.

I realize PAX is a hard job, and there are always non-competitive vehicles. But when you have a one-car class like EV-X, it seems PAX should be more aligned with the actual results of that car in various events. As it is, despite an ASP EV on Hoosiers not coming close to the top SS times in any national level event, they have given EV-X a harder PAX than SS.

The reason this matters is because there are so few EV's out there running locally that PAX is the only way for people new to the sport and maybe performance cars to measure their abilities. When you go out and set FTD by multiple seconds but PAX tells you that 6 of the 8 BRZ's had better drivers, it gets old.

Like I said, hopefully the 3 EV-X cars this year help adjust the PAX and make EV-X a bit more interesting locally.

 

[The Other Dan]

(moderator note)

link to event information OP is discussing added)

2022 Tire Rack SCCA Solo Nationals

SCCA - National - National Solo on Tuesday, September 6, 2022 - Friday, September 9, 2022 at Lincoln Airpark, Lincoln, NE - The SCCA® Solo® National Championship - known as "Solo Nationals" – is where more than 1,300 autocrossers come from across the country to meet and compete in one of the...

www.motorsportreg.com

========================================

2022 Solo Nats
With Nats going on, thought I start a thread discussing it. Trying to keep it somewhat Tesla related, threw I. These to questions for discussion as well.

Do we have any members running Nats this year in a Tesla or otherwise?

I know of Dallas J in SM, running his Mitsubishi EVO. Currently in 2nd place after the first day, 0.2sec from. 1st.

And Dallas is now the 2022 Street Mod Nat. Champion.

Ot will be interesting the next couple events since he'll be running his Tesla. Aside from driver, the only difference between his car and mine at this point is suspension. He's running MPP Sports, no other mods as of yet.

 

[The Other Dan]

I realize PAX is a hard job, and there are always non-competitive vehicles. But when you have a one-car class like EV-X, it seems PAX should be more aligned with the actual results of that car in various events. As it is, despite an ASP EV on Hoosiers not coming close to the top SS times in any national level event, they have given EV-X a harder PAX than SS.

The reason this matters is because there are so few EV's out there running locally that PAX is the only way for people new to the sport and maybe performance cars to measure their abilities. When you go out and set FTD by multiple seconds but PAX tells you that 6 of the 8 BRZ's had better drivers, it gets old.

Like I said, hopefully the 3 EV-X cars this year help adjust the PAX and make EV-X a bit more interesting locally.

What does/would a Tesla in ASP look like vs. EvX? I don't keep up on different class prep.

 

[gearchruncher]

What does/would a Tesla in ASP look like vs. EvX? I don't keep up on different class prep.

ASP allows aero, weight reduction, fenders, DOT-R tires, and full suspension mods.

But not on a Model 3. On a Model 3 you can only do limited suspension, and DOT-R. No aero, no weight reduction. Unlimited wheels that fit the stock fenders.

EV-X isn't much different really, except the 200TW tires because the "limited prep" limits you so much in ASP.

 

[dsgerbc]

Weather looks similar this week for Thurs/Friday, so not sure how much that matters.

Temps/time of day matter tho. EVX runs early heats with temps likely in low 80s, while SS runs late, with air temps in the 90s. Also, Friday will be somewhat cooler, which is when the EVX will run on the longer East course. So, in theory, it's not beyond unimaginable that EVX raw times could end-up in the mid-pack of the SS field. Although, the longer course design looks to be pretty nightmare-ish for a Tesla - lots of high-speed slalom-like elements.

I realize PAX is a hard job, and there are always non-competitive vehicles. But when you have a one-car class like EV-X, it seems PAX should be more aligned with the actual results of that car in various events. As it is, despite an ASP EV on Hoosiers not coming close to the top SS times in any national level event, they have given EV-X a harder PAX than SS.

They also bumped for 2022 somehow :/
Maybe there were too many rain events or something.
I'm half-tempted to attempt to construct an index of my own based on publicly available results...
Or maybe I'll reach out to Rick Ruth to see if his methodology is somehow not working right for our cars.

The reason this matters is because there are so few EV's out there running locally that PAX is the only way for people new to the sport and maybe performance cars to measure their abilities. When you go out and set FTD by multiple seconds but PAX tells you that 6 of the 8 BRZ's had better drivers, it gets old.

Like I said, hopefully the 3 EV-X cars this year help adjust the PAX and make EV-X a bit more interesting locally.

Lower PAX would be nice, but I kinda doubt it's gonna happen. There are too few data points for Teslas on the national tour, so whatever model is being used should give pretty wide estimates. After that, there will be some 'judgement' adjustment that will go against us. Although, I admit, I have no clue how it's computed. There's a podcast somewhere I bookmarked that covers it.

Top PAX is doable in a Model 3 in the dry, but it would have to be on asphalt, and the course design would have to be well suited to the car - some WOT zones out of slow corners, and not too many slalom-like elements.

 

[dsgerbc]

What does/would a Tesla in ASP look like vs. EvX? I don't keep up on different class prep.

Yeap, pretty much the same as EVX + Hoosiers.

 

[The Other Dan]

ASP allows aero, weight reduction, fenders, DOT-R tires, and full suspension mods.

But not on a Model 3. On a Model 3 you can only do limited suspension, and DOT-R. No aero, no weight reduction. Unlimited wheels that fit the stock fenders.

EV-X isn't much different really, except the 200TW tires because the "limited prep" limits you so much in ASP.

OK, wasn't aware of the "limited prep" clause for EVs.
I remember when the Hymans were running their GTR in ASP and how brutal that was. I can't image the Model 3 be competitive with that in any possible way, unless Tesla dropped a Plaid drive train into the 3.

 

[dsgerbc]

So, I listened through this podcast. It appears that the PAX index is updated via aggregation of a ton of national and local events. Allegedly, up to 1300 events factor in annually. There is no elaborate statistical model, there's just one guy who volunteers his time and spread-sheeting skills.

The procedure:

• takes PAX times from every event he can get his hands on
• finds the 105% cut-off time, and discards any times below that
• Finds the median of what's left.
• Keeps only class winners
• Classes below the median get points that will reduce PAX next year, Classes above the median get points to boost PAX.
• Some manual adjustment for not very well-represented classes, which is where I believe EVX may fall.

Not much detail beyond that. I may reach out to Rick and ask for more info. As it, it would seem that a few not very competitive regions where some Teslas are always at the top (not pointing fingers at anyone, lol) and pretty thin participation at the tour level may skew the index higher.

 

[dsgerbc]

Yeah, after day one, EVX is getting beaten by the top GS car in raw... as well as by much of the GS field in PAX. The East course design is not any less punishing on Teslas either.

 

[gearchruncher]

Yeah, after day one, EVX is getting beaten by the top GS car in raw.

More than that- they're getting beaten in RAW by every single class that has run except HS (a 2019 Honda Civic). I get that some of these didn't run on the short course today and aren't perfectly comparable, but still...

AS +2.034s
DS +0.649
ES +0.081
FS +0.656
GS +0.174
HS -1.724
STH +1.775
STX +1.292
STU +1.381
STR +2.061
SST +0.585

The PAX is clearly broken for EV-X. I get why this would be given the way PAX is developed. It uses historical performance in that category to adjust for the next year. Well, for a new category, it just needs to be a guess because there is no previous year comparison. Then, it can easily be dominated by a few people at low competition clubs. Every time an OK driver in a Tesla beats the one guy putting around in a GT3 in their local club, that bumps up EV-X a bit.

You get something like this, where two drivers run locally in EV-X and win:

https://solo.stlscca.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/Event8_PAX.pdf

https://solo.stlscca.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/Event2_PAX-Results.pdf

https://solo.stlscca.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/Event4_PAX.pdf

Then they go to nationals and come in 26th in SS and 11th in ASP. But nobody ran nationals in EV-X in 2021, so no update happened due to nationals results. So all the PAX came from local events, but clearly with cars/divers that are not actually competitive at the national level with a PAX that is harder than SS.

I wonder how many events actually exist in the PAX index for EV-X. That requires someone to actually enter in EV-X (not SS or ASP), and to then have strong drivers in SS/AS. Given how few people run in EV-X, it's easy to see how just a few events with weak SS/AS cars would make EV-X look dominant.

Hopefully results like the ones at Nationals and other tours this year will adjust EV-X for 2023. At the tour sites this year it looks like this (raw times):
Red hills: 15 seconds slower than SS
Las Vegas: 5 seconds slower than SS
Maryland: DNS
Crows Landing: 8 seconds off SS
Texas: No entries
Peru: 2 seconds off SS (best showing for an EV-X this year, still behind 7 SS/AS cars in PAX though)
Seneca: No entries
Bristol: 2.5 seconds off SS
Packwood: No entries

 

[dsgerbc]

Maybe we should write some letters to the SEB.
I wouldn't mind lower a PAX. But the index is pretty much irrelevant for nats/tour events and only really comes into play at the local level. The lower EVX index (and maybe a move back to BS for the stock 3) would make it a killer car on some types of sites - tight-ish asphalt lots with not much space for high-speed handling elements. And some clubs only have a few sites, and those are 100% like that. So, such a move would probably make plenty of people at regional events quite unhappy if Teslas were taking top PAX every time.
Of course, the flip side is Tesla drivers running on nice large concrete lots are likely to get annoyed and discouraged if the index stays this high...

 

[gearchruncher]

Maybe we should write some letters to the SEB.

The SEB doesn't have anything to do with the index though?

I wouldn't mind lower a PAX. But the index is pretty much irrelevant for nats/tour events and only really comes into play at the local level.

Exactly, like I said above. It's annoying for local events that don't have 150+ competitors and lots of those events just run on PAX since there are only ~10 really competitive drivers but in all kinds of cars. When you can gap a BRZ by 2 seconds but come in 7th in PAX, even though nobody has ever won PAX in an EV with a competitive field....

I agree PAX is never perfect, and nobody wants an EV-X PAX that is wrong and lets anyone win with it all the time. But the fact that EV-X PAX means you can never win is equally wrong. A good PAX means you win some and loose some, just like there are Miata courses and Corvette courses. Meanwhile, the AS Corvettes and STR Miata's PAX'd within 0.4 seconds of one another at the nationals.

I mean, PAX says an EV should be half a second faster than a SS or STU car on a 60 second course, yet we're seeing -1 or -2 seconds everywhere.

I wonder if there is a region somewhere with really strong competition (like people that have trophied at nationals) in AS/BS/STU that actually has an EV consistently raw timing the other cars like the PAX suggests should happen. I'd love to see it. Maybe the car really is that fast in the hands of the right driver, and we just very rarely have the right drivers yet.

 

[dsgerbc]

My suspicion is that the initial EVX index was just the SS PAX + some prior estimate of how much faster cars get under ST rules. If the car itself gets moved out of SS, it's probably a good reason to revise the EVX PAX as well.

 

[gearchruncher]

My suspicion is that the initial EVX index was just the SS PAX + some prior estimate of how much faster cars get under ST rules.

Yeah, except they made the EV-X PAX tougher every year since 2020. So they somehow believe their initial guess was LOW for the car, not high. And based on that podcast, they supposedly wouldn't do that without evidence and without a lot of cases where EV-X was in the top 2% of PAX, which is kind of crazy as it would require a M3P to reliably run a quarter second faster raw than the SS cars and 0.8 faster than AS.

2020: 0.824
2021: 0.826 (+0.002)
2022: 0.835 (+0.009)

 

[gearchruncher]

EV-X is complete at Nationals.
Looks like the longer course did help some vs other classes. Top overall time was a 130.699, beating HS, GS, ES even though GS and ES were faster on the short course.

AS, DS, and FS have all beat EV-X. Given AS beat EV-X by 5 seconds, I think my prediction that SS will beat by 3+ is going to be true when SS runs this afternoon. It's likely going to be a 6 second gap, which is 5%, which is almost enough to mean EV-X doesn't even get included in the future PAX calculations which only consider times that are within 5% of the FTD.

STU is up 4.5 seconds also, and that should be a very comparable class, it's STI's/Evos/M3's with suspension and power mods.

Admittedly, these results aren't really showing what the Model 3 can do- I run locally with a multi time STU national champion and I'm usually within 0.5s of him, and he's a better driver than me. The Model 3 is definitely faster than B-F stock, but not really sure it's reliably faster than SS. AS, or STU.