2022MY AWD SR+ with 4680 At Cyber Rodeo

[Exelion]

I think 4680s will only be for the standard range, I would assume the P and LR will use the same technology until California plant is updated.

After that big leak I don’t think the LR and P will get 4680’s. At least not for a long time. There’s no real need for updating a high demand, sold out car as much as there is a need to fill a missing void of a standard range Y, which currently doesnt exist. Giving it AWD and an acceptable (give or take) range makes it attractive to new buyers who don’t want to spend for a YLR or P.

The new competing truck market for next (actually, this) year is probably what Tesla is going to actively develop. That Cybertruck can’t be late to the game, especially since so many automakers are already jumping in on it.

 

[tangible1]

This is highly disappointing if true. The efficiency of the SR+ Model Y that was submitted to the EPA has same energy consumption almost as the Model Y AWD LR. You would think with lighter batteries, less of them and new castings, they cars would gain in energy efficiency.

note how much your conclusion relies on assumptions.
batteries lighter? or the battery pack? or lighter at all?
The EPA doc said the car weighed 60lbs less than a MYLR. Is it really 4680, or is it the heavier LFP? There's NO definitive evidence either way.

absolutely nothing regarding specifications was delivered last night.

the next opportunity: Q1 Earnings Call.....which Elon seems unlikely to be doing any more.
the dance continues. it seems only when we see one in the wild will we get any answers.

 

[xyeahtony]

This is highly disappointing if true. The efficiency of the SR+ Model Y that was submitted to the EPA has same energy consumption almost as the Model Y AWD LR. You would think with lighter batteries, less of them and new castings, they cars would gain in energy efficiency.

The energy density between 2170s and 4680s are very very very similar. People keep hoping and waiting out for advantages that are non-existent.

 

[Mateo83]

This debate has went round and round in other posts here already.

 

[DanDi58]

Seems to make sense to build a SR+ MY with the smaller pack to extend the production of the MY until more 4680's are available. This would also serve to ramp up production in Austin. According to the article, the SR+ has a 68kWh battery vs the LR 82 kWh, so you could possibly extrapolate the range from 279 miles in the SR+ to about 336 miles with the 3680/82kWh battery pack. So 6 more than the MYLR with 19" wheels currently.

 

[Tha_Ape]

Seems to make sense to build a SR+ MY with the smaller pack to extend the production of the MY until more 4680's are available. This would also serve to ramp up production in Austin. According to the article, the SR+ has a 68kWh battery vs the LR 82 kWh, so you could possibly extrapolate the range from 279 miles in the SR+ to about 336 miles with the 3680/82kWh battery pack. So 6 more than the MYLR with 19" wheels currently.

When you extrapolate the range, you also have to consider the added weight.

 

[bin31z]

The energy density between 2170s and 4680s are very very very similar. People keep hoping and waiting out for advantages that are non-existent.

Well that's what they were saying at battery day right? Overall a 16% increase in range from increased energy density and decrease overall weight?? Did I miss something?

 

[bin31z]

note how much your conclusion relies on assumptions.
batteries lighter? or the battery pack? or lighter at all?
The EPA doc said the car weighed 60lbs less than a MYLR. Is it really 4680, or is it the heavier LFP? There's NO definitive evidence either way.

absolutely nothing regarding specifications was delivered last night.

the next opportunity: Q1 Earnings Call.....which Elon seems unlikely to be doing any more.
the dance continues. it seems only when we see one in the wild will we get any answers.

People are saying its 4680 cells. LFP would make sense considering the range and weight but its built at Texas which is supposed to go 4680 from the get go.

 

[ZenRockGarden]

Well that's what they were saying at battery day right? Overall a 16% increase in range from increased energy density and decrease overall weight?? Did I miss something?

Several of the items that were baked into that sweeping "16%" claim already happened. The MY got the rear mega-cast and associated weight savings. The battery chemistry was adjusted and improved. MYLR has more range already now than when the 16% comment was made.

And the claim was theory. Making a fully working 4680 pack may have turned up additional challenges. Hence... what appears to be a 65 KWH variant as the first release.

 

[LHC22]

The energy density between 2170s and 4680s are very very very similar. People keep hoping and waiting out for advantages that are non-existent.

Which I actively encouraged! I got my Model Y performance in pretty decent time thanks to everyone who keeps waiting for the "next great thing".

 

[DanDi58]

When you extrapolate the range, you also have to consider the added weight.

That's an unknown at this point. What weighs more, 4,400 2170 batteries in the MYLR or X number of 4680's in the MYSR+....

 

[tangible1]

People are saying its 4680 cells. LFP would make sense considering the range and weight but its built at Texas which is supposed to go 4680 from the get go.

the interesting thing: Elon on stage said 'all the videos shown were shot in Texas.
He did not say the batteries or packs in the cars were made in Texas, nor did he say the cars had 4680 in them.

Everyone is speculating, all the time.
Only Tesla knows what's going on. And they're ain't telling just yet.

My speculation: the cars from Texas are fleet/rental, showroom, and employee company cars for now.
We still won't see any in the wild for a month or two.
And the battery chemistry in them will remain uncomfirmed. Both LFP and 4680 could make sense.....

 

[ZenRockGarden]

So far, all LFP packs have been pouch/prismatic, not cylinders ala 2170 or 4680 format. Doesn't mean it couldn't be done, but there is no precedent for it.

 

[tangible1]

So far, all LFP packs have been pouch/prismatic, not cylinders ala 2170 or 4680 format. Doesn't mean it couldn't be done, but there is no precedent for it.

I can't see Tesla making the engineering development investment for LFP in the new 4680 format while they've struggled with the Li-Nickel 4680.
They just buy the LFP from CATL, etc for their SR cars.......but it's Tesla, so who knows. Only Tesla !!

 

[saltsman]

I'm curious how the Texas-made deliveries Tesla claimed to make last night would have worked.

This new Texas SR MY was previously unannounced (price and specs). I don't think you could deliver a 279 mi range car to someone who ordered and paid for a 326 mile range car without first contacting them and offering them a price adjustment.

Also remember, Tesla is prohibited by law from delivering any vehicles in the state of Texas. All vehicles have to be "purchased" out of state and then delivered to the customer. My assumption is these are headed out of state and headed to fleet owners (and why you didn't see any real owners at the delivery as we have seen in other delivery events).

 

[voxel]

So far, all LFP packs have been pouch/prismatic, not cylinders ala 2170 or 4680 format. Doesn't mean it couldn't be done, but there is no precedent for it.

If I was at the Cyber Rodeo.. I would have opened up the charging screen and checked for the daily/trip max charge marker.

I hope for LFP (even in prismatic/pouch form) but I suspect 4680 will be NCA cylindrical packs in the Y AWD SR.

 

[Vdub31]

I think the new SR config will be for fleet orders only and stay off menu for the public. 4680 lowers margins for tesla and hertz definitely skipped the line. (Tin foil shot in the dark).

 

[tangible1]

I think the new SR config will be for fleet orders only and stay off menu for the public. 4680 lowers margins for tesla and hertz definitely skipped the line. (Tin foil shot in the dark).

I agree the MY Dual Motor Std Range is a fleet/rental/showroom/employee company car.
But the 4680 raises margins for Tesla. They aren't giving profits to Panasonic from buying batteries there.
And, the manufacturing cost of the new v2.0 chassis (structural pack, F+R megacasts) is much lower, and it's faster to build.
Double benefit for Tesla.

 

[ZenRockGarden]

I think we're increasingly clear that the first output from the Texas plant is a standard-range-plus Model Y.

I expect they'll eventually offer it for ordering alongside the MYR and MP - not clear how soon.

They gain experience with the new factory and pack design at SR+, then expand to use 4680's on most Model Y's.

The most interesting wrinkle for us will be the period where you may have the choice between the new SR+ and the existing-ish MYLR. If I was Tesla, I'd roll a few nice-new things on the MYLR at the same time the MYAWD comes up for public orders to keep them a bit more apart market-wise

 

[Exelion]

If I was Tesla, I'd roll a few nice-new things on the MYLR at the same time the MYAWD comes up for public orders to keep them a bit more apart market-wise

Or, Tesla could go the other way like in the current 3SR+ Fewer speakers, software de-activated heated rear seats, etc.

It’s easier and cheaper to strip features on a lower trim model than add features on a new one. But let’s see, hopefully Tesla doesn’t take away too much.