Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register

2170 cells in Model S/X prognostications welcome here

This site may earn commission on affiliate links.

computerchuck

Member
Supporting Member
Apr 20, 2017
324
1,261
Utah
Hello friends,

Looking for your best guesses, prognostications, and projections of when you think they will start installing 2170 battery cells into the Model S. We've all heard the news about Panasonic wanting to stop shipping the older 18650 cells from Japan, and only ship the 2170s. Even as a current Model S owner, there couldn't be better news. Outside of Tesla making a 150 or 200 KW battery pack, converting the 100kw pack to use 2170 cells would make my day! It opens up v3 supercharging, give us longer battery life, and would finally justify the higher cost of the Model S, as it compares with the Model 3.


I understand it would take a little bit of redesign because of the taller cells, which would make for a slightly thicker pack to put in the floor. But it would seem from my quite uninformed perspective (which isn't qualified for sure!) that the little bit of engineering and manufacturing effort would be child's play for Tesla engineers. At least very small as compared to redesigning a larger battery pack like the roadster at 200 KW. I have an inkling that they'll be doing that 200kw pack in 2021 anyway, after they get enough Roadster orders .


I'm very encouraged that changes maybe happening much sooner for the Model S, considering the news from Panasonic and that combined with the highly needed justification for the higher price tag. They could easily do that by swapping out the cells to 2170. They’ve already started the justification journey by changing out the front motor, adding better suspension, better bearings, etc last week. It it would seem they are amenable to making more changes to justify the Model S cost. And it can all happen without any major cost change like a redesign would. I’m sure some of you will argue that this is a redesign. And my answer would be they’ve already done that by putting in a different motor, changing the wheel bearings and suspension. So I agree any changes are a redesign. It’s a matter of degrees.

Sales of the model S have taken a huge hit and personally I think the model three is a much better value at this point. Making the changes last week has definitely helped but they’re not quite there yet in my opinion. I know all will be well after a redesign, but who knows how long that’ll be considering model Y, Model P (pickup), Semi, and Roadster upcoming. It seems prudent to go ahead and make the 2170 cell changes right away, as well a few interior design changes.


Bottom line, they really need to work on separating the value distances of their flagship car to the Model 3/Y. The sooner they do that the better. Elon should consider announcing the 2170 pack replacement of the Model S and X during the pickup truck reveal. It would definitely pick up sales and increase the value of the stock immensely.



Anyway… I'm a somewhat of a Tesla fan boy and itching to place an order today for the 370 mile range model S and can help but wonder if they’re working on 2170 project. I think they could totally do that by July of this year, at least within six months. I'm very much looking forward to replacing my 2015 P90D.

What are your thoughts? Do you agree that this is a great short-term solution to their sales problem?
 
  • Funny
Reactions: P85_DA
My two cents:

2170 Project will come with 500-mile range for Model S, likely in the second half of 2020 once GF3 in China is handling a lot of the going forward M3 production load, and Fremont/GF1 is focusing on North America release of Model Y.
 
Toss my vote in "not gonna happen". The cells are taller, so they'll have to redesign structure to either make the external dimensions of the car thicker/taller, or the internal dimensions thinner/shorter, or a combination of both. That means all the crash testing has to be done again, and for all the trouble and cost (redesign/retooling/recertification) you may as well take the opportunity to replace what is a relatively ancient design in the automotive industry (yes I know it still holds its own).

It's also a ton of work just for the sake of more range in a car that already leads the industry. What's much more likely to happen (if it hasn't happened already) is that the chemistry from the 2170's will be ported over to the 18650 form factor.
 
There is zero reason to believe that either of those things require cells with different dimensions.

Interesting. I would think that if they're going to go ahead and redesign a larger pack, why not use the 2170 cell? If you go ahead and redesign the entire pack anyway why not just let it match? I do see a great argument in changing the chemistry of the existing size.
 
  • Like
Reactions: ZAKEEUS
Interesting. I would think that if they're going to go ahead and redesign a larger pack, why not use the 2170 cell?

Generally agree, but everything in engineering is some manner of trade off. It may very well be a more feasible and economical decision to redesign the S/X pack for increased cooling/higher amperage and add recent chemistry changes than to go ground up with the 2170.

The current 3 pack is no more energy dense than the S/X in terms of volume/weight...
 
  • Like
Reactions: reardencode
The current 3 pack is no more energy dense than the S/X in terms of volume/weight...
Sure but the chemistry in 3 allows faster charging (most likely by sacrificing energy density). Always a balancing act.

It's not so simple as using the same chemistry in 18650 form factor. It may reduce the overall energy capacity if you want to obtain to the same 250kW charge characteristics, so you lose the ability to have a 100kWh pack.

The only reason we don't have 2170s in the S and X is that there simply aren't enough cells. Elon mentioned that they want to start trying to push people to the SR as they can make 3 SRs instead of 2 LR.

Tesla sees rivers of gold in Robotaxi and are trying to manufacture as many cars as possible. Convincing prospective S & X owners that a 18650 based pack is almost as good as a 2170 one is the only way to maximise sales.

I expect when Supercharger V3 goes live people will quickly see that the 200kW charge rate is a peak rate in ideal conditions with a rapid taper. It won't be able to sustain 250kW for a fair part of the curve like the Model 3. While people currently think the S/X will charge at 80% of the Model3 it'll soon become evident that you need to factor in much longer time at the charger.

Expect to see Supercharger V3 to be pushed back a bit until Tesla finally has enough 2170s to go around and S & X get a new pack that can match (or surpass) Model 3 charge rates. Then all will be forgiven (and forgotten).

My guess is Q2 2020
 
Given that they just released the Raven S and X without 2170 cells, I think there's 0 chance it'll show up before July/August. Tesla generally only does one meaningful update per quarter in the user facing side of the hardware. I think a revised interior is more likely in July than 2170 cells are, but I wouldn't bet on getting either.

A lot may depend on whether the current 18650 cell equipment can be used to make 2170 cells with minimal retrofitting. If so, they might switch a number of the other plants to 2170 production and make the switch in the S/X earlier rather than later.

If it's not practical to retrofit, they'll probably be building the S/X with 18650 cells for a long time because battery cell production seems to be a limiting factor for Tesla right now, especially on 2170 cells (delays to Powerwalls, etc.)

I'm not sure the cells themselves have anything to do with the difference between S/X and 3 charge rates. There's been a lot of talk about the size of the cable between the chargeport and pack, but since Raven cars are apparently getting upgraded chargeports, it would be a logical time to upgrade that if it was the limit, and the Raven cars are still only promised 200 kW charging on level 3. (Which may or may not be the same as legacy S/X. I'm not sure we have an official number for them yet.)

The other obvious candidate is the cooling system design - the legacy design in the S and X is basically the same as it has been from the beginning, with a single sequential chain running along the length of the pack while the 3 apparently cools 4 bands in parallel, as well as using a designed extruded multichannel tube that offers more contact area per cell - a combination which should allow tighter control of the cell temperature under extreme conditions.

But if that's the case, and Tesla needs to keep using 18650 cells for supply reasons, they could certainly design a 18650 based pack with the higher charge rates by using the extrusions in parallel like the 3 design. In principle, more 18650 cells should be easier to push harder with any given system design - especially since 250 kW is much less load on a 100+ kWh pack than it is on a 75 kWh pack.
 
  • Like
Reactions: reardencode
Maybe they can arrange the cells horizontally or at an angle to maintain the existing pack dimensions.

We're only talking about 5mm here, less than 1/4". If nothing else, I don't think a quarter inch of ground clearance change would really matter much - though they'd probably have to make minor revisions to the tank mode systems that guard the front of the pack if they dropped it a little lower.
 
Musk stated the current packs are rated for 300-400K mile lifetimes and that Tesla will be releasing new battery packs next year with 1M mile lifetimes.

It's highly unlikely Tesla would be designing a new battery pack with 18650 cells. Next year's packs could have 2170 cells or might even have an even newer cell design.

Based on Musk's comments, it looks like S/3/X/Y could all have new battery packs in 2020.
 
Musk stated the current packs are rated for 300-400K mile lifetimes and that Tesla will be releasing new battery packs next year with 1M mile lifetimes.

It's highly unlikely Tesla would be designing a new battery pack with 18650 cells. Next year's packs could have 2170 cells or might even have an even newer cell design.

Based on Musk's comments, it looks like S/3/X/Y could all have new battery packs in 2020.

Elon made the statement about "million miles" batteries, so it must be a new battery design, most likely from the Maxwell acquistion tech. Who knows, this new battery may be the new standard across the Tesla product line, which would go a long way in reducing costs.
 
  • Like
Reactions: computerchuck
I thought I had heard that they were looking to streamline things at GF3 in China to have several suppliers of 2170 cells. My assumption was that they would re-engineer S&X to accept them so that they would only have one cell format... for that market. That would probably entail new crash testing, etc, which may be required anyway due to the foreign regulatory bodies? Perhaps they can just reduce interior height for the clientele in that market? Or perhaps they'll take what they learn from those modifications and consider transferring them to the North America market?
 
  • Like
Reactions: computerchuck
I thought I had heard that they were looking to streamline things at GF3 in China to have several suppliers of 2170 cells. My assumption was that they would re-engineer S&X to accept them so that they would only have one cell format... for that market. That would probably entail new crash testing, etc, which may be required anyway due to the foreign regulatory bodies? Perhaps they can just reduce interior height for the clientele in that market? Or perhaps they'll take what they learn from those modifications and consider transferring them to the North America market?

Are they planning to build Ss and Xs at gigafactory 3?

The last I heard they were only planning on building 3s and presumably Ys there, and shipping Ss and Xs in from the states.