2170s for the Model S soon [Speculation]

[J1mbo]

2170s are a whopping 5mm taller than the current cells.

Exactly. And they are packaged differently too.

 

[TonyT]

I do not think that Panasonic is producing enough 2170 for X or S to get cell upgrade. Panasonic was making just enough for M3 just couple of months ago.

Maybe Tesla will want to do it in stages. Keep producing current 100kWh battery and split it into two variants, locked 90kWh and 100kWh while adding new performance option with better cooling based on new 2170 cells.

Third option would be to transplant whole M3 driveline to lower power model S and X.

I would like the see the new pack in the top of the line S/X with the new V3 charging. If the bms can support it they can continue to use the existing contracts for the 90/85 and 100 models.

Hopefully this would give a upgrade path for older S/X. My S does everything I need and more and would love to run it as long as possible. A future upgrade path to 120 would be awesome!

 

[ucmndd]

Exactly. And they are packaged differently too.

What sort of "packaging differences" do you think are going to result in a significant increase in pack height to the point of necessitating a complete vehicle redesign or significant intrusion into the cabin or ground clearance?

 

[emmz0r]

As the S and X are still the flagship models, they have to have the best range as well. I expect nothing less from premium models.

 

[J1mbo]

What sort of "packaging differences" do you think are going to result in a significant increase in pack height to the point of necessitating a complete vehicle redesign or significant intrusion into the cabin or ground clearance?

Go see for yourself if you are genuinely interested. There are a few battery teardowns online.

 

[henderrj]

I think that thread titles that are written as statements rather than questions when the thread is pure speculation are unfortunate.

For my part I thought that an ellipsis would be assumed. This is a forum for such speculation after all, is it not?

 

[scaesare]

For my part I thought that an ellipsis would be assumed. This is a forum for such speculation after all, is it not?

That's only a subset of content here.

 

[henderrj]

That's only a subset of content here.

And so, we burst the fun bubble. Oh well, some people just can't enjoy life I guess!

 

[electronblue]

@henderrj
Nice speculation though there could still be an intermediate step before 2170 batteries appear in MS and MX?

It is not impossible there could be an intermediate step before 2170 like renaming batteries to Standard and Long Range while keeping them initially as 18650 batteries maybe ~80 kWh and 100 kWh for example to continue on the depopulated 100 kWh line of thinking. The Standard Range product would then have slightly better public specs and higher price as 75 did but not yet be a sea change. [100 kWh would simply be = Long Range battery in this idea. Eventually these would be replaced by 2170 products with better specs but same names.]

https://iaspub.epa.gov/otaqpub/display_file.jsp?docid=39834&flag=1

Yes 2170 batteries are still possible too. There have been rumors of 2170 batteries and a couple of rumoured timelines for them for Model S and Model X. Supercharger V3 is one potential reason why 2170 could appear on MS and MX as soon as possible if it is needed for charging speed improvements.

I believe the Tesla hacker user by the alias @wk057 checked that the 5 millimeter height difference will fit in current Model S and Model X battery packs so that in itself is not likely to be a problem for 2170 batteries. But is Gigafactory ready to churn them out at speed yet?

Other 2170 battery rumor timelines are found in the rumor summary thread including the recently discussed 130 kWh rumor and 2170 battery timeline rumors suggesting still a year eg from @CraZ8 here Rumor summary: Blind-spot cameras, Rain sensing, Level 3, Big battery, Interior/HUD

 

[henderrj]

@henderrj
Nice speculation though there could still be an intermediate step before 2170 batteries appear in MS and MX?




Yes 2170 batteries are still possible too. There have been rumors of 2170 batteries and a couple of rumoured timelines for them for Model S and Model X. Supercharger V3 is one potential reason why 2170 could appear on MS and MX as soon as possible if it is needed for charging speed improvements.

I believe the Tesla hacker user by the alias @wk057 checked that the 5 millimeter height difference will fit in current Model S and Model X battery packs so that in itself is not likely to be a problem for 2170 batteries. But is Gigafactory ready to churn them out at speed yet?

Other 2170 battery rumor timelines are found in the rumor summary thread including the recently discussed 130 kWh rumor and 2170 battery timeline rumors suggesting still a year eg from @CraZ8 here Rumor summary: Blind-spot cameras, Rain sensing, Level 3, Big battery, Interior/HUD

I have, for years, said that there would be a shortage, for years, of 2170 cells. I still believe that is the case. But I believe Tesla may very well be going to make a high capacity battery pack for the S and X which will cost quite a bit. It'll give the profit necessary to make it worth the effort, and eventually it will become the norm. Hey, I Can Dream can't I!

 

[mongo]

Pulling from Market Action

Not to flog a stranded Roomba, but even though the physical differences between Tesla's two cell varieties are measured in millimeters, it's not a simple undertaking to substitute one for the other. The soup inside them is one thing, but altering a car's chassis design is liable to entail very significant, undesirable, and convoluted rework.

The last thing Tesla needs is a new major production snafu for marginal gains. These cars deliver solid profits. And as Karen says, engineers who would have to reacquaint themselves with the Model S and X's intricacies and design decisions are really needed elsewhere.

It may be easier to do than I suppose, but Tesla probably didn't design in room for growth - they didn't know what their next cell would look like back then.

The S/X packs have spacers and busbars on both the top and bottom of the cells. The 3 pack design only has busbars on the top, height is not an issue.
Tesla could use the current pack structure, largely unchanged (may need to shift interior walls) and fill it with 2170 modules. No vehicle level overhaul needed.

 

[dc_h]

I think the productivity of the current 2170 cell production systems has to be about 10-20 times that of the 18650 cells. The new lines at GF1 are supposedly 3 times the original GF lines, so there lines in Japan from 2012 have got to be much more expensive to operate. Even if Panasonic used them for other customers the cost would be higher than Tesla’s lines and the chemistry would be inferior. Updating japan to 2170 now would also prep for Shanghai and allow Panasonic to compete for the GF3 business. If they don’t update the Japan plant they can’t compete for Shanghai. Maybe they keep part of the 18650 line going for a while, but o think by March they switch to 2170 and get ready to supply GF4.

 

[Beltsbear]

I think they are going to upgrade the chemistry of the 18650 lines in Japan, or they have already done so. The 'new' packs will be made with 18650 cells that can hold 20% more power and have a lower weight per kWh. They will use some of that advantage to make a lower weight 80kWh pack and call it the standard range. It will be better then the 75kWh pack, cost less to make and slightly lighter. They will make a long range pack that is about the same weight as the 100kWh pack, with slightly less cells. It will have 115kWh storage and be called long range. Both packs will have the first cells slightly farther from the front of the car so they will be safer in horrifically bad frontal crashes.

 

[mongo]

I think they are going to upgrade the chemistry of the 18650 lines in Japan, or they have already done so. The 'new' packs will be made with 18650 cells that can hold 20% more power and have a lower weight per kWh. They will use some of that advantage to make a lower weight 80kWh pack and call it the standard range. It will be better then the 75kWh pack, cost less to make and slightly lighter. They will make a long range pack that is about the same weight as the 100kWh pack, with slightly less cells. It will have 115kWh storage and be called long range. Both packs will have the first cells slightly farther from the front of the car so they will be safer in horrifically bad frontal crashes.

There is no reason for 18650 cells to ever have an older/ lesser chemistry than the current 2170 cells. The can dimensions just require a different width and length for the layers before the roll process, everything else works the same.

 

[Duffer]

As @mongo noted above it would appear, at least to the layperson, that the change to 2170 cells in the S/X "should" be relatively easy/inexpensive. The battery production line is for the most part cell agnostic (based on discussions in the investor threads) therefore increased production of the 2170 cells would also appear to be relatively easy/inexpensive.

For arguments sake, lets assume that the above is true.

Pros:
Increased range for the S/X further separating them from the 3 as well as the competitor's vehicle specs.

Allows S/X to take advantage of the SuperCharger V3

Cons:
Contract with Panasonic for __ number of 18650 cells.. Unless Panasonic is close to fulfilling the contract or Tesla can divert the remaining production to Tesla Energy for power walls then there would be costs to Tesla without the corresponding profit offset.

Panasonic is now sitting on a very lucrative, proven, commodity that Tesla's competitors would be extremely happy to purchase. Yes, this furthers "The Mission". However, I am an investor that is quite happy with the competition floundering around.

 

[scaesare]

And so, we burst the fun bubble. Oh well, some people just can't enjoy life I guess!

Yes. That's it. All your fun would be spoiled by asking for accurate thread titles.

 

[Beltsbear]

There is no reason for 18650 cells to ever have an older/ lesser chemistry than the current 2170 cells. The can dimensions just require a different width and length for the layers before the roll process, everything else works the same.

And yet currently they do.

 

[jbih]

One thing I haven’t seen being mentioned: Elon suggested not copying the Model 3 pack design, because it’s too complex. So I expect a next gen battery pack design in Model S, X and Y, and possibly 3 that is even cheaper to build.

And given the speeds possible on the German autobahn, better cooling and higher capacity is very welcome! When I tried a Model X P100D I sucked the battery empty in about 100km (less that 100 miles). And I couldn’t achieve the top speed because the battery overheated after the first try where I had to slow down due to traffic. So I’d consider even a 150kW/h pack if I can afford it.

 

[mongo]

And yet currently they do.

What are basing this on?

Tesla makes two types of cells, ones for cars (NCA) and one for Energy products (NMC). NCA are made in 18650 and 2170 versions (S/X and 3), but NMC are only 2170. Reference:
Exciting Developments In NMC 811 Lithium Battery Technology | CleanTechnica

I was a bit simplistic, they could make slightly different NCA versions as a power/energy/cycle/cost tradeoff, so I'd be very interested in reading about known chemistry shift delineations.

 

[-=buzz=-]

My take on this is:

1. S/X production is constained by cell availability.
2. Tesla/Elon claims 3-pack is cost optimized vs. performance optimized 100kwh S-packs

I think they managed to drop the 3LR-pack into the S battery enclosure.
This allows them to introduce a new ~80kwh capacity MR (SR is not a thing in this luxury category...), at much higher margins.
This keeps the top performing 100kwh-pack
It removes the cell capacity constraint from S/X production.

AFAIK the 75-pack still uses the original "low"-density modules compared to the improved high density modules used in the 100-pack.
So they could get rid of those or convert them to produce the high density module design