2170s for the Model S soon [Speculation]

[gilscales]

It is just a matter of time IMO that they switch all cars to the 2170, the Gigafactory is still a ways off of the original target of 35 gwh of annual production (estimated at 20 gwh in october) and latest full production round the clock estimate of a fully built out gigafactory 1 is 105 gwh annually, Panasonic just reported a third quarter loss of 75 mil and blamed it directly on the investment in building more battery lines at the gigafactory so how much longer will it be until battery capacity is there? seems like in the next 12 to 18 months we will see a rapid increase in production 3 or 4 fold from today maybe?

Who would not pay 10k or 15k more for a 120 over a 100 battery For S or X? while cost to Tesla (after a redesign) would be a fraction of that, some people won't but I would bet that the take rate for these high end models would be over 50% and that would increase profits drastically.

 

[ucmndd]

My take on this is:

1. S/X production is constained by cell availability.

I’ve never seen or heard any evidence or even speculation of this. Seems to me Panasonic could almost assuredly crank out more 18650s than Tesla can cars. The S/X are complex cars to manufacture and ~100k/year appears to be full tilt for the Fremont production line.

 

[ucmndd]

Who would not pay 10k or 15k more for a 120 over a 100 battery For S or X?

I wouldn’t. The S is already too expensive. Carrying around an extra 20kwh everywhere I go, at that cost, for the extended range to be of use on maybe 0.5% of my trips, is a terrible ROI.

 

[-=buzz=-]

I’ve never seen or heard any evidence or even speculation of this. Seems to me Panasonic could almost assuredly crank out more 18650s than Tesla can cars. The S/X are complex cars to manufacture and ~100k/year appears to be full tilt for the Fremont production line.

AFAIR that's the official statement from Tesla..
Given their peak of ~30k vehicles in some quarters, there seems to be some margin to rise continuous production. Especially considering the claimed reduction of shifts from 3 to 2...

 

[gilscales]

I wouldn’t. The S is already too expensive. Carrying around an extra 20kwh everywhere I go, at that cost, for the extended range to be of use on maybe 0.5% of my trips, is a terrible ROI.

I understand your view and agree that it would be of use on road trips a small fraction of ownership for most people but it would also likely be able to reduce 0-60 which would be important to a lot of people (not you) as you see how obsessed some people are with this

 

[Tic-tac-toe]

I understand your view and agree that it would be of use on road trips a small fraction of ownership for most people but it would also likely be able to reduce 0-60 which would be important to a lot of people (not you) as you see how obsessed some people are with this

The 2020 roadster is coming with 0 to 60 under 2 secs and 600+ range. There already is a car for those obsessed with 0-60.

Tesla can raise the range and improve the performance for the S and X but doubtful people are willing to pay significantly more for it.

A 20kwh is how much more range? I am not going to pay an additional 15k+ unless that translate into 200+ addional range.

 

[lookmtb]

I think there is a market for a bigger, more expensive battery. People already shell out more for some Mercedes and the like. I think to justify it more Tesla would have to add more of those ultra luxury features though. Frankly if I wasn't already priced out of a new MS I would be interested in more range simply to have more for when conditions aren't ideal or higher speed cruising.

 

[dc_h]

The 2170 cell and pack design advances for the model 3 should allow Tesla to sell the 100 model for slightly less and a 120 model for slightly (5-10k) more than a 100 model today, grow margins and improve performance—not zero to sixty, but add track mode and better long distance high speed. If they align on motors as well, they can increase range further and reduce supply chain and get better pricing. Moving to 2170 and Model 3 engines oils cut costs by 5 or even 10% and provide further distance between Tesla and new competition.

Look at the discussions about GF1 cell productivity. The new 3 lines will produce more cells than the first 11 lines. Those lines were 6 years newer then the cell lines in Japan. There should be significant cost savings to upgrade and it positions Panasonic Japan to compete for Shanghai business, which they can’t do now. They could at least triple production from Japan using their existing plant and staff and perhaps even help Tesla start a Tesla Energy site in Japan (long shot, but japan needs help recovering and moving on from nuclear power). The new lines should be driving cell and pack costs below $100 kWh. No way they can do that with the 18650 line. Let them sell $150 cells to someone else, innovation is the only most that matters in the long run.

 

[Tic-tac-toe]

The S P100D fully loaded costs over 150k and goes 0 to 60 in 2.3 with 315 mile range.

The 2020 roadster not the founder’s series costs 200k and goes 0 to 60 in 1.9 with a 620 mile range.

At these prices and specs, Tesla’s focus should be on producing cars for the masses like the model 3 rather than trying to produce a car that fits into a niche between the S P100D and 2020 roadster... how big is the market for 175K cars? although I would not mind a more luxurious interior, better range/battery and even faster 0-60 on the S, but only around the same price ~150k.

Adding track mode and better long distance high speeds are not going to entice most people to pay more for the S. There is no autobahn here and unless I want to be charged with reckless driving and go to jail, I am not going to sustain speeds over 100 mph at anytime in VA. Maybe Tesla can add track mode to their Ss in Europe but it will be a waste of money here. I can see why they added track mode on the 3 but that is generally a much younger demographic than the S/X. I have never taken a car to a track and never will.

 

[dc_h]

The S P100D fully loaded costs over 150k and goes 0 to 60 in 2.3 with 315 mile range.

The 2020 roadster not the founder’s series costs 200k and goes 0 to 60 in 1.9 with a 620 mile range.

At these prices and specs, Tesla’s focus should be on producing cars for the masses like the model 3 rather than trying to produce a car that fits into a niche between the S P100D and 2020 roadster... how big is the market for 175K cars? although I would not mind a more luxurious interior, better range/battery and even faster 0-60 on the S, but only around the same price ~150k.

Adding track mode and better long distance high speeds are not going to entice most people to pay more for the S. There is no autobahn here and unless I want to be charged with reckless driving and go to jail, I am not going to sustain speeds over 100 mph at anytime in VA. Maybe Tesla can add track mode to their Ss in Europe but it will be a waste of money here. I can see why they added track mode on the 3 but that is generally a much younger demographic than the S/X. I have never taken a car to a track and never will.

I think 400 mile range and the ability to go 75mph for 4+ hours would help sell more cars. I didn't mean faster acceleration, but more consistent high performance, like you have with the Model 3. I agree on that high end price, they shouldn't go up much above that, but profit maximizing does help them grow as fast as possible, which is a key part of the goal.

 

[Tic-tac-toe]

I think 400 mile range and the ability to go 75mph for 4+ hours would help sell more cars. I didn't mean faster acceleration, but more consistent high performance, like you have with the Model 3. I agree on that high end price, they shouldn't go up much above that, but profit maximizing does help them grow as fast as possible, which is a key part of the goal.

My car has no problems going 90 mph for 2+ hrs or 80 mph for 3+ hrs. We do a lot of road tripping and 3 hrs is usually the max time I want to stay in the car before a break. I don’t think increasing the range to 400 is going to sell significantly more cars since the current 100D has 335 range, 65 more range doesn’t mean much although I’ll take it if offered but not if it costs more money.

It’s like any tech. Most people aren’t upgrading from the iPhone 7, 8, X to the max. They don’t need it, so they are not upgrading.

 

[mongo]

The 2170 cell and pack design advances for the model 3 should allow Tesla to sell the 100 model for slightly less and a 120 model for slightly (5-10k) more than a 100 model today, grow margins and improve performance—not zero to sixty, but add track mode and better long distance high speed. If they align on motors as well, they can increase range further and reduce supply chain and get better pricing. Moving to 2170 and Model 3 engines oils cut costs by 5 or even 10% and provide further distance between Tesla and new competition.

Look at the discussions about GF1 cell productivity. The new 3 lines will produce more cells than the first 11 lines. Those lines were 6 years newer then the cell lines in Japan. There should be significant cost savings to upgrade and it positions Panasonic Japan to compete for Shanghai business, which they can’t do now. They could at least triple production from Japan using their existing plant and staff and perhaps even help Tesla start a Tesla Energy site in Japan (long shot, but japan needs help recovering and moving on from nuclear power). The new lines should be driving cell and pack costs below $100 kWh. No way they can do that with the 18650 line. Let them sell $150 cells to someone else, innovation is the only most that matters in the long run.

Space wise, I don't think they can get 120kWh into an S without double stacking.
The 100 pack is 16 modules, with one double stack. Dropping the double get 15/16 the area, 2170s get you a 14/13 boost in energy per cell due to height (maybe up to 12/11 boost).

Put together, it's in the single digit percent range of improvement (for the same chemistry).

Like you say, what you do gain is a much lower cost pack by reducing cell count, cell price, module count, and assembly cost (pack and module).

So still 100ish kWh, but lower vehicle cost, higher margins, or some of each.

 

[CyberShy]

I wanted to add that with the recent 7% layoffs that I don’t think 2170 Model S packs may not be coming for at least 1-2 more years.

 

[mongo]

I wanted to add that with the recent 7% layoffs that I don’t think 2170 Model S packs may not be coming for at least 1-2 more years.

A new highly automated 2170 pack would reduce manual assembly and head count requirements.

What's your rationale?

 

[ucmndd]

For those still thinking big changes are just around the corner...

Tesla slashed Model S and X staff in recent layoffs

 

[mongo]

For those still thinking big changes are just around the corner...

Tesla slashed Model S and X staff in recent layoffs

Gonna have to give something more to go on...
They dropped the 75 and they are reducing line personnel, both those events would align with a new 100 ish 2170 automated assembly pack.

If margins are hurting, a cost reduced pack design that would be a way to improve proft...

 

[Alset4S]

Soon? Who's definition of soon? If it's Mr Musk's soon could be looking at early 2020. Or is that too soon?

 

[ucmndd]

They dropped the 75 and they are reducing line personnel, both those events would align with a new 100 ish 2170 automated assembly pack.

... or dropping entire production shifts and accepting a lower volume with higher margin for the foreseeable future, because they have zero resources to take on an S/X redesign with all of the other balls in the air right now.

I see this as far more likely.

 

[mongo]

... or dropping entire production shifts and accepting a lower volume with higher margin for the foreseeable future, because they have zero resources to take on an S/X redesign with all of the other balls in the air right now.

I see this as far more likely.

Thank you for expounding.
I'm thinking that the pack can be updated without charges to the vehicle as a whole, but indeed , it may not be a priority,

 

[abasile]

I'm quite sure there's a market for larger batteries. It may only be a fraction of the overall market, as with the top-end iPhone, but it exists. People would rather not have to go out of their way to stop and charge. I think that if Tesla were to release a 400 mile version of the Model S today, this would generate a sizable number of new orders, including existing owners choosing to upgrade. It would also bring real "halo" benefits.

Our Model S has 144K miles on the odometer, it gets about 250 miles of range, and we drain the battery down to 10-20% on a semi-regular basis, for roundtrips that we do within SoCal. We can Supercharge for free, but we prefer not having to make an extra stop, so we generally do these drives on a single charge from home. Ultimately, it'd be great to have charging at our particular destinations, but that's likely years away.

Tesla has generally done a great job of placing Superchargers near amenities such as at shopping malls. And we do need to get out and stretch on road trips. However, not every charging stop is going to align perfectly with where we actually want or need to stop. Not every route is well served by Superchargers, even in California. We do what we need to do to make things work, and it's totally worth it to be driving a Tesla, but it is necessary to pay attention to range and charging opportunities when away from home.

So, I certainly wouldn't mind having 400 miles of range! We tend to keep our cars for a long time, but if I were spending the money for a new Model S or X, I'd try to get as much range as possible.

My car has no problems going 90 mph for 2+ hrs or 80 mph for 3+ hrs. We do a lot of road tripping and 3 hrs is usually the max time I want to stay in the car before a break. I don’t think increasing the range to 400 is going to sell significantly more cars since the current 100D has 335 range, 65 more range doesn’t mean much although I’ll take it if offered but not if it costs more money.

It’s like any tech. Most people aren’t upgrading from the iPhone 7, 8, X to the max. They don’t need it, so they are not upgrading.