2170s for the Model S soon [Speculation]

[henderrj]

For years I've been arguing that 2170s won't be seen in the model S or X any time soon. Now I think we're finally about to see some.

I believe that at the model Y reveal (March?) we will also be introduced to the long range Model S and X. With something around 400-mile range. It will end up being a much more expensive high-end option for those vehicles that will contain a new battery pack. I think it'll also have some interior updating, maybe our long-awaited cup holders! But mainly the big difference will be the larger battery availability. The 100 will become the middle range and, as many have pointed out, something in the 85 kwh range will be the short-range version.

For the bbd's out there (big battery deniers) I offer the following. Elon Musk cannot withstand criticism. Why do you think we have those stupid vegan seats? Leather would be so nice! Since people have been saying that Tesla can't make better battery packs, it's killing him. So we must have a bigger one! Besides, there is a real argument for those in the far Frozen North to having a much bigger battery pack. It's not just fancy, there's an advantage for them that is significant. Back to Elon. He hates not being number one. The other manufacturers are getting close, in Battery size yes, but also in charging speed. He needs to beat them in these things! And that, is to our advantage.

I skipped all the discussions about the s75 disappearing. Those are well-covered in other threads.

So, what think thee?!

 

[sandpiper]

For years I've been arguing that 2170s won't be seen in the model S or X any time soon. Now I think we're finally about to see some.

I believe that at the model Y reveal (March?) we will also be introduced to the long range Model S and X. With something around 400-mile range. It will end up being a much more expensive high-end option for those vehicles that will contain a new battery pack. I think it'll also have some interior updating, maybe our long-awaited cup holders! But mainly the big difference will be the larger battery availability. The 100 will become the middle range and, as many have pointed out, something in the 85 kwh range will be the short-range version.

For the bbd's out there (big battery deniers) I offer the following. Elon Musk cannot withstand criticism. Why do you think we have those stupid vegan seats? Leather would be so nice! Since people have been saying that Tesla can't make better battery packs, it's killing him. So we must have a bigger one! Besides, there is a real argument for those in the far Frozen North to having a much bigger battery pack. It's not just fancy, there's an advantage for them that is significant. Back to Elon. He hates not being number one. The other manufacturers are getting close, in Battery size yes, but also in charging speed. He needs to beat them in these things! And that, is to our advantage.

So, what think thee?!

Methinks you're right on the batteries. An 85/100/115 mix for SR MR LR sounds about right. I'd like 120, but that might be a step too far. I'm more skeptical on the interior. They're going with the M3 design language, and that's a major retooling. I don't think they've had enough time to execute it, since the model 3 ramp up fiasco.

I also think you're wrong on the vegan seats. I was skeptical but I like my cream vegan seats a LOT better than my old tan leather seats. I would have had no idea that they weren't real leather. And they seem to be a lot better quality/ more durable. I started to have cracking in my old seats pretty quickly. Not with these. I would absolutely pay extra for them over the real leather. And I'm not vegan or anything else in that vein.

 

[OPRCE]

A drop-in 21700 replacement pack for MS/X, whether larger or lighter, would be sweet but I doubt it will happen before 2023. Meantime the current 100D models may get an improved maximum charge rate once the SuC v3 arrives.

 

[cityberty]

I hope you are right but doubt it. They already have the contract in place for existing ones(18650s) with Panasonic and I doubt they could do the 2170s with focus and priority of 3 and Y needing it for the next 2 -3 years. Larger battery maybe but I remember a tweet a while back that Elon didnt think he would go above 100kwh. But that was a while ago and things change and he may need to crush the other new EVs coming to the market. But even at 100kwh it destroys the EVs that ice car markers are showing they dont even touch that and theirs are coming out in 2020 the earliest for many of them

 

[mknox]

I also think you're wrong on the vegan seats. I was skeptical but I like my cream vegan seats a LOT better than my old tan leather seats.

Not me. The tan leather seats in my 2013 S were far superior to the faux leather in my new X.

 

[Gen3]

I hope we get 400 mile x and s. Not holding my breath though.

 

[Brovane]

I think the switch to 2170 batteries in the Model S and X will happen sooner rather than later for a number of reasons.

#1- One of the key advantages of the Giga-factory is cost reduction for batteries. If Tesla wants to reduce the cost of the Model S and X production it needs to switch these cars to use the cheaper cells from the Giga-factory.

#2- Competition. By increasing the range of the Model S and X it further differentiates itself form it's competitors.

#3- SuperchargingV3. I have a suspicion that the current battery-packs in the Model S and X cannot support the charge rates of the Model 3 packs. When Tesla eventually allows the Model 3 to charge at the full rate the pack can handle it needs to be ready to include the same 2170 in the Model S and X.

 

[sandpiper]

Not me. The tan leather seats in my 2013 S were far superior to the faux leather in my new X.

Not in my 2014 recaros. They cracked and scuffed way too easily.

 

[bob_p]

V3 supercharging will likely require using the Model 3 battery design in order to take advantage of the much faster charging.

The new battery pack design should be less expensive than the current design, allowing Tesla to lower the list price and also increase profit margin.

Focusing only on the 100 battery packs reduces Tesla's development and manufacturing costs for transitioning to the new packs.

It's also possible Tesla might be readying a larger pack for the S/X. Longer range for the X would be helpful for towing applications.

The latest update on V3 indicated they plan to roll that out sometime this year - so an announcement on the new packs could be coming in the next few months.

 

[cityberty]

Putting in 2170s is not plug and play unless Tesla wants to try plug and pray.

If they havent been testing this for two years(which maybe they have) then I dont see this happening for at least a couple of years since Y, Semi and Roadster probably have the best resources and as we’ve seen in other companies you cant just go out and hire the best engineers. Support staff yes but not talent.

 

[CRASHER]

2170 switch will have to come with model redesign. Current battery pack is designed for swap, and also add to structure rigidity.

 

[J1mbo]

All this focus on the batteries is misplaced IMO.

The M3 has a more efficient drivetrain than MS/MX. M3 AWD seems to get around 220-240 wh/mile versus the 75D which gets around 300 wh/mile (on default tyres / in summer / etc.) from a similar size battery.

Swapping MS to the M3 drivetrain would make far more of a difference to the owner than moving to 2160s, which are physically taller than the current batteries.

What to do with that extra height? There's no way they will reduce the cabin height in the (already limited) MS or MX without big changes to the interior, as it would impact trim, comfort & safety (seatbelt mounting points, etc).

Physically bigger batteries would add a bulge under the car, and require higher suspension, but for little benefit - nobody knows whether SuC v3 needs the 2160 batteries, or just upgraded wiring & cooling.

It would also make sense to rebrand a more efficient 75D as "SR", assuming a more efficient 100D will be the "LR" version.

I guess it is possible that rebranded cars will also have a refreshed interior and new batteries to go with a more efficient drivetrain. Not long until we find out!

 

[ucmndd]

What to do with that extra height? There's no way they will reduce the cabin height in the (already limited) MS or MX without big changes to the interior, as it would impact trim, comfort & safety (seatbelt mounting points, etc).

Physically bigger batteries would add a bulge under the car, and require higher suspension, but for little benefit

2170s are a whopping 5mm taller than the current cells.

 

[scaesare]

So, what think thee?!

I think that thread titles that are written as statements rather than questions when the thread is pure speculation are unfortunate.

 

[MorrisonHiker]

I think that thread titles that are written as statements rather than questions when the thread is pure speculation are unfortunate.

Looks like the all-seeing moderators have addressed that.

 

[Vitold]

I do not think that Panasonic is producing enough 2170 for X or S to get cell upgrade. Panasonic was making just enough for M3 just couple of months ago.

Maybe Tesla will want to do it in stages. Keep producing current 100kWh battery and split it into two variants, locked 90kWh and 100kWh while adding new performance option with better cooling based on new 2170 cells.

Third option would be to transplant whole M3 driveline to lower power model S and X.

 

[D.E.]

2170s are a whopping 5mm taller than the current cells.

Could the 2170s be installed stacked on their sides instead of vertically? Maybe that could allow a battery pack without increased height.

 

[jelloslug]

Not me. The tan leather seats in my 2013 S were far superior to the faux leather in my new X.

I have had the exact opposite experience with the 2013 S company car and the X that replaced it.

 

[dhanson865]

Could the 2170s be installed stacked on their sides instead of vertically? Maybe that could allow a battery pack without increased height.

no need, there is more than 5mm gap below the battery pack on the bottom of the car and the next part protruding down. You'd never notice the difference if it filled out some of that negative space.

If the pack weighs less you use weaker springs to keep the car low. If the pack weighs more you use stronger springs to keep the car high. Either way 5mm is a non issue.

For example Uplugged Performance Mild springs drop the car by 0.7" the 5mm we are talking about is less than 0.2" by comparison.

 

[mknox]

Not in my 2014 recaros. They cracked and scuffed way too easily.

For whatever reason, I am finding the black (yes, black) faux leather seats in my new X are showing way more stains and dirt than the tan leather ones in my S did, and are harder to clean. Any droplet of even water leaves sort of grey-ish white spots. The tan leather seats in my S looked like new when I sold it after 5 years and 160,000 km.