OMG, I'm not sure what's going on with the tsla stock but I'm buying as much as I can. This is Christmas in April 
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$235 TSLA - BUY BUY BUY
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Uncle Paul
Well-Known Member
Tesla has been an elevator stock for a long time.
Lots of money has been made by buying on the dips and selling into rallies.
Lots of money has been made by buying on the dips and selling into rallies.
Uncle Paul
Well-Known Member
There always seems to be a reason. The Model X was late because it was too complicated, the company was going Bankwupt, the bonds were coming due, the Giga Factory was behind schedule, the Model 3 was too expensive to make profitably, the 35,000 Model 3 would never come, not enough batteries, Elon acts goofy, executives are leaving, SEC is going to fine them, cars catch fire, Tesla does not do well on racetracks, Tax credit going away, missing some targets, some software is delayed, Elon going through divorce, they are running out of money, the stock price is too high, they have lots of debt, building in a tent, Tesla killers are coming, etc.
Through it all Tesla has continued to churn out more and more cars, make them more efficiently, making them better and better, software is improving. Driver assisted self driving in getting better and more capable, navigation on autopilot is a big step towards automatous driving. The cars are getting faster, more range, better reliability, and quicker charging. They have become the #1 $EV producer in the world.
Profitabiliy for each car is improving, the batteries are getting better, the cars are getting pretty constant OTA enhancements. Comparison from current quarter to same quarter previous year pretty much shows constant and significant growth. For Q1 this year over Q1 last year they are selling more cars, producing more cars, making more profits (or smaller losses), lowering debt to asset ratios, making more batteries, improving batteries, reducing costs per car. Most all data points are getting better.
Tesla is still pushing the envelop. They work long hours, are strong and smart. In the media their faults tend to be magnified and their successes glossed over.
I get the feeling that this dip is perhaps just more of the same. Lots of people have made enough money in Tesla stock to buy their own new Tesla.
There are shorts out there, constantly trying to inflect damage to the company. They do what they can to spread FUD and even have been known to sabotage when they can to put pressure on the company. This is normal in most publically owned stocks, but it seems even more intense for Tesla.
Sometimes it just comes down to faith. Then you place your bets.
Through it all Tesla has continued to churn out more and more cars, make them more efficiently, making them better and better, software is improving. Driver assisted self driving in getting better and more capable, navigation on autopilot is a big step towards automatous driving. The cars are getting faster, more range, better reliability, and quicker charging. They have become the #1 $EV producer in the world.
Profitabiliy for each car is improving, the batteries are getting better, the cars are getting pretty constant OTA enhancements. Comparison from current quarter to same quarter previous year pretty much shows constant and significant growth. For Q1 this year over Q1 last year they are selling more cars, producing more cars, making more profits (or smaller losses), lowering debt to asset ratios, making more batteries, improving batteries, reducing costs per car. Most all data points are getting better.
Tesla is still pushing the envelop. They work long hours, are strong and smart. In the media their faults tend to be magnified and their successes glossed over.
I get the feeling that this dip is perhaps just more of the same. Lots of people have made enough money in Tesla stock to buy their own new Tesla.
There are shorts out there, constantly trying to inflect damage to the company. They do what they can to spread FUD and even have been known to sabotage when they can to put pressure on the company. This is normal in most publically owned stocks, but it seems even more intense for Tesla.
Sometimes it just comes down to faith. Then you place your bets.
It is now as clear as ever that Tesla will win big time. The oil and car industry are very afraid. No wonder the attacks are stronger than ever.
I can't believe Wall Street is stupid enough to short a company that is #1 overall in Switzerland and Norway, almost #1 in cars in the US and is profitable enough to refinance itself. The Tesla killers have failed spectacularly. The potential downside for short sellers when the stock pops is enormous. There must be money of trillion dollar companies behind it.
What I really don't understand is how they are attacking Tesla by giving out stock for low prices? I mean, thank you, but why? To make issuing stock expensive? That won't stop Tesla.
Reality check. Wall Street probably is stupid enough. And institutional investors probably simply want to avoid the drama that is the Tesla stock.
I can't believe Wall Street is stupid enough to short a company that is #1 overall in Switzerland and Norway, almost #1 in cars in the US and is profitable enough to refinance itself. The Tesla killers have failed spectacularly. The potential downside for short sellers when the stock pops is enormous. There must be money of trillion dollar companies behind it.
What I really don't understand is how they are attacking Tesla by giving out stock for low prices? I mean, thank you, but why? To make issuing stock expensive? That won't stop Tesla.
Reality check. Wall Street probably is stupid enough. And institutional investors probably simply want to avoid the drama that is the Tesla stock.
Fernand
Active Member
Forgive the naive question, but in spite of having worked on the tech side of markets, I'm fuzzy on some very basic issues. My question is by what mechanism would I make money buying Tesla stock.
Let's say I have faith in Musk's views, and the cars are great. But the analysts are almost unanimous in pointing to all the traditional stock buy criteria being negative. And there's a lot of ignorant luddite and deliberate short position negative press. So, if I buy Tesla stock, where/how will I make money? On dividends? On the stock price itself going up so I can sell at a profit? Isn't a lot of buying required to drive the stock price up? With all the negativity, no matter how great the cars, no matter how many they've sold by year end, what would motivate enough others (like me) to put money into Tesla shares to drive stocks up - ahead of anticipated share price rising? Can someone please explain without acronyms, in elementary arithmetic terms?
Let's say I have faith in Musk's views, and the cars are great. But the analysts are almost unanimous in pointing to all the traditional stock buy criteria being negative. And there's a lot of ignorant luddite and deliberate short position negative press. So, if I buy Tesla stock, where/how will I make money? On dividends? On the stock price itself going up so I can sell at a profit? Isn't a lot of buying required to drive the stock price up? With all the negativity, no matter how great the cars, no matter how many they've sold by year end, what would motivate enough others (like me) to put money into Tesla shares to drive stocks up - ahead of anticipated share price rising? Can someone please explain without acronyms, in elementary arithmetic terms?
omgwtfbyobbq
Active Member
If you made money off of Tesla stock, it would probably be through stock price appreciation. Other companies, like Amazon, have also had a fair bit of criticism in the past.
Amazon: Free Shipping and Low Prices Don’t Add Up To a Moat
Offhand there are a couple differences between Tesla and Amazon. One is that Tesla's model eliminates traditional media advertising, which traditional media lives off of. Amazon on the other hand does utilize traditional ads and are a little more insulated from negativity in the media.
The second is that Tesla is on a path to shake up transportation, energy generation, and energy distribution/storage, which I think are bigger industries than Amazon took on at the same point in it's existence.
Don't get me wrong, there's a good chance anyone's Tesla stock, including mine, could end up worthless. At the same time, a lot of the negativity reminds me of what people said about Amazon at certain points. This individual for instance sold most of their 6,000 shares of Amazon they purchased in 1998 after it dropped from about 10 times their initial investment to about 3 times their initial investment.
How I Lost $200,000 -- The Motley Fool
Now those shares are worth ~240 times their initial investment.
Fernand
Active Member
If you made money off of Tesla stock, it would probably be through stock price appreciation.
Thanks, so it IS a matter of confidence rising, for all the reasons
you mention and beyond, so people will be buying the stock, thus pushing
its price up, nothing else, really. If the company is doing well, selling
lots of cars, happy customers, none of that is enough for someone who
holds Tesla shares - if other people aren't buying the stock, because
there is no other mechanism for the share price to go up, is that correct?
omgwtfbyobbq
Active Member
Tesla can also buy back shares or provide dividends, which would make the price of the remaining shares go up. But overall, assuming things at Tesla are going well, then additional demand for the stock, buybacks, and/or dividends are the only avenues for Tesla's share price to go up.
Antares Nebula
Active Member
You said in elementary arithmetic terms, right?
Well, elementary arithmetic is based on Peano's axioms. Let's start there:
Peano's Axioms
1. Zero is a number.
2. If
3. zero is not the successor of a number.
4. Two numbers of which the successors are equal are themselves equal.
5. (induction axiom.) If a set
Peano's axioms are the basis for the version of number theory known as Peano arithmetic.
Peano's Axioms -- from Wolfram MathWorld
Let me know when you're ready for the next lesson.
Sudre
Active Member
One of the interesting things that keeps my confidence in my TSLA is the institutions (no matter how much they downgrade) ALWAYS want Tesla to borrow money from them or do an equity raise. That tells me the institutions don't see Tesla going bankrupt and probably believe the company has a better than not chance of doing well.
And of course the price has to get under $143 before I get the slightest bit of worried.
And of course the price has to get under $143 before I get the slightest bit of worried.
Fernand
Active Member
You said in elementary arithmetic terms, right?
Well, elementary arithmetic is based on Peano's axioms. Let's start there:
Peano's Axioms
1. Zero is a number.
2. Ifis a number, the successor ofis a number.
3. zero is not the successor of a number.
....
Let me know when you're ready for the next lesson.
by Axiom 3, there is no previous or next useful lesson. Thanks anyway.
One analyst described it as "one of the worst quarters he'd seen in tech history" - yet the share price was flat in after hours trading!! Others said "Elon imagines sales will magically arrive in the end of the year" paraphrasing Wall Street analysts.
Some numbers.
They lost $702m last quarter. Meanwhile Ford, same valuation, but 20x as many sales, and pays a 5% dividend made billions in profit.
They were nearly bankrupt (10 days from Q end they had only sold $2.2bn of their $4.4bn revenue, and ended Q1 with $2.2bn - so in theory they were at $0 in the bank at some point 10 days from Q1 end.
Elon spoke about possible dilution to raise capital - Wall Street expects a $2.5bn capital raise.
They've been range-bound trading in a $250-380 trading range for 2 years - always bouncing off low $250s, and have JUST fallen through it! Any chartist would tell you they're falling to the previous range, which is about $180.
Solar deployment fell 15-20%
Storage deployment were flat.
Their main battery supplier (Panasonic) is losing money and for some reason won't increase production!
So no, I think it's a terrible time to buy.
On the plus side the automony bit was an amazing presentation (and a damage limitation exercise given the horrendous Q1 numbers!), and Lyft and Uber have bonkers valuations of $80bn - so maybe! But then don't expect FSD level 5 to arrive in "Elon time" - think 5 years for legislation.
Some numbers.
They lost $702m last quarter. Meanwhile Ford, same valuation, but 20x as many sales, and pays a 5% dividend made billions in profit.
They were nearly bankrupt (10 days from Q end they had only sold $2.2bn of their $4.4bn revenue, and ended Q1 with $2.2bn - so in theory they were at $0 in the bank at some point 10 days from Q1 end.
Elon spoke about possible dilution to raise capital - Wall Street expects a $2.5bn capital raise.
They've been range-bound trading in a $250-380 trading range for 2 years - always bouncing off low $250s, and have JUST fallen through it! Any chartist would tell you they're falling to the previous range, which is about $180.
Solar deployment fell 15-20%
Storage deployment were flat.
Their main battery supplier (Panasonic) is losing money and for some reason won't increase production!
So no, I think it's a terrible time to buy.
On the plus side the automony bit was an amazing presentation (and a damage limitation exercise given the horrendous Q1 numbers!), and Lyft and Uber have bonkers valuations of $80bn - so maybe! But then don't expect FSD level 5 to arrive in "Elon time" - think 5 years for legislation.
Hhhmm, where do I start with the way your analyzing what is happening? When no one wants to buy that's when you want to buy the stock. It's cheaper to buy tesla now then 2 weeks ago. If you are waiting for the good times then it's too late because the price of the stock will be higher. When you are willing to buy, I'm willing to sell and when you are wanting to sell then I'm wanting to buy.
I really don't know why it's so hard for people to comprehend "buy low, sell high." The only reason why you shouldn't buy now is if you couldn't ride the bad days. The price will go up eventually.
"buy low, sell high" is good - as long as you're not doing the other saying "catching a falling knife" I've tried that before and watched as a share hit new lows! But I am not a pro investor and have timed many shares badly! If it can bounce back into it's 250-380 range then that's good. However it might drift lower until we get some guidance on Q2 or some big Tesla news... and I think they're all out of "big" news for a month or two. If we start getting some desperate sales initiatives or more price movements we'll know more.
Personally I don't think RHD Tesla and Europe will continue as well as Q1 Europe - it's a much smaller market than Lefthanddrive. Also - people in Europe love hatchbacks. The top 10 British cars are all hatchbacks. Crossovers are increasingly popular - for years we've reisted - but they're going more mainstream. Even Peugeot have some now - and for a decade they resisted. Model 3 is neither a crossover or a hatchback - the latter I believe is a terrible mistake. Probably Tesla's worst decision.
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