$25B/yr from Superchargers?

[David.85D]

Just read this article and am left gobsmacked by the scale of it.
To generate $25B/yr off of 25,000 charging stalls, you need $1,000,000 revenue per charging stall per year.

At $0.25 per KWh (just a guess what the average price Tesla will charge Maybe double this, doesn’t really matter) - every single charging stall has to be delivering 450 kW continuously, 24 hours a day, 365 days a year.

Seems …optimistic?

Tesla Superchargers estimated to make $25B+ in annual revenue when opened to other EVs

Elon Musk recently announced that Tesla is planning to open its Supercharger Network to other EVs later this year. Following the announcement, Goldman Sachs crunched the numbers and estimated that Tesla could make more than $25 billion in annual revenue by opening up its charging network to...

www.teslarati.com

 

[WarEagleGo]

Just read this article and am left gobsmacked by the scale of it.

The paragraph discussing Figure 4 is clear, if charged "on a per-use basis" today's network might be worth 1 Billion, but if the network grows to 500,000 chargers, and demand (daily chargers) increases then the math scales to 25 Billion.

“In Exhibit 4, we show the potential revenue opportunity if Tesla were to open up its Supercharger network to non-Tesla vehicles and charges on a per-use basis. The first column shows the monetization opportunity with Tesla’s current installed base of 25k chargers, and if the base grew to 500K Superchargers in the long-term for illustrative purposes (could be a 25+ bn in annual revenue, depending on average use and price.”

So the headline is pure click-bait

 

[nwdiver]

The paragraph discussing Figure 4 is clear, if charged "on a per-use basis" today's network might be worth 1 Billion, but if the network grows to 500,000 chargers, and demand (daily chargers) increases then the math scales to 25 Billion.

“In Exhibit 4, we show the potential revenue opportunity if Tesla were to open up its Supercharger network to non-Tesla vehicles and charges on a per-use basis. The first column shows the monetization opportunity with Tesla’s current installed base of 25k chargers, and if the base grew to 500K Superchargers in the long-term for illustrative purposes (could be a 25+ bn in annual revenue, depending on average use and price.”

So the headline is pure click-bait


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And that's revenue not profit. That's not counting O&M. Whether DCFC can even be profitable at all is still questionable.

 

[RobDickinson]

A thing in the future which (mostly) doesnt exist might make [speculative amount] of money if you dont count costs or competition.

 

[mociaf9]

Whether DCFC can even be profitable at all is still questionable.

With high use rates, the demand charges are much less onerous. And in a world where Tesla has installed 500k stalls, they should have massively reduced their capital costs for installation even beyond what they are today (and Tesla's are currently at the low end compared to the rest of the market).

 

[nwdiver]

With high use rates, the demand charges are much less onerous. And in a world where Tesla has installed 500k stalls, they should have massively reduced their capital costs for installation even beyond what they are today (and Tesla's are currently at the low end compared to the rest of the market).

Possibly. But I would expect >70% of the usage to occur during < 30% of the hours.

It would be interesting to see the operating costs and revenue for a Supercharger. So some extent it could become a catch-22 of sorts. The only way for it to be viable is for other entities to chip in. If it became a huge profit center hosts will start to demand and cut => reducing the profitability.