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2Q 2013 Model S Deliveries Potential Surprise

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by DJ Frustration, Jun 5, 2013.

  1. DJ Frustration

    DJ Frustration Model X Sig, Former Model S, Model 3 Res

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    #1 DJ Frustration, Jun 5, 2013
    Last edited: Jun 10, 2013
    I don't know if this is being tracked anywhere but according to my rough calculations, we could be in for another surprise for the 2nd Quarter Model S deliveries number. I don't think the market has gotten wind of this yet...but maybe they will with this thread.

    Here's what I'm seeing. Please verify and correct if my data isn't accurate.

    2012 Total Deliveries: 3,100 *Source: 2012 Shareholders Letter http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/ABEA-4CW8X0/2402407713x6830975x637040/4e3260f0-b711-47df-9c9e-16a8dda99a19/Q4'12%20SHL%20022013%20final.pdf
    1Q 2013 Deliveries: 4,900 *Source: 1Q 2013 Shareholders Letter http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/ABEA-4CW8X0/2402407713x6830975x661989/ee71d11b-3563-489c-9471-9319fd963626/Q1%2013%20Shareholder%20Letter.pdf
    Highest VIN Assigned To Date: 13,812 *Source: Model S Delivery Update Thread Model S Delivery Update

    Is it possible that they will build 5,812 for 2Q?!? Guidance was around 4,500 for 2Q with some being delayed due to transit to Europe.
     
  2. JRod0802

    JRod0802 Member

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    I think the VINs are sometimes delivered out of order, and I think a bunch of cars went towards the loaner cars for when your car is being serviced. But I'm not sure how much out of order the VINs are or how many cars went to the loaner program.
     
  3. FredTMC

    FredTMC Model S VIN #4925

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    Couple points.

    1) I think most completed cars get delivered within a week or two of completion. In other words, I think delivers aren't very far out of order compared to vins (vins are reasonably accurate as a measure of sales in a quarter)

    2) 100 loaners: Remember that some of the loaners WILL be sold to customers. Basically, all loaners end up getting sold. Elon doesn't want loaners to be older than a few months.
     
  4. DJ Frustration

    DJ Frustration Model X Sig, Former Model S, Model 3 Res

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  5. twinklejet

    twinklejet Member

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    They are sending out test drive / demo cars to stores/galleries etc. around the world though.. there was a picture of about 10 of these on the highway in Norway that probably won't be sold to anybody..
     
  6. SebastianR

    SebastianR Member

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    I think these have been built-up over time: lots of cars all around in all kinds of tests / demos in Europe but I think some of them are from Q1, too... So I'm not sure that this is a major factor right now.
     
  7. johnnyS

    johnnyS Member

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    I currently have a loaner model S. The VIN number on my loaner is lower than my car--the vin is in the 1200s. I was surprised--maybe a trade in to go from a P85 to a P85+?
     
  8. stevezzzz

    stevezzzz R;SigS;P85D;SigX

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    #8 stevezzzz, Jun 5, 2013
    Last edited: Jun 5, 2013
    That sounds plausible. OTOH it goes against Elon's statement that he expects the loaners to be no more than two or three months old before they're sold, and that he wants loaners to be better than the car you're having serviced. Has anyone heard if a CPO Model S program has been launched yet?

    The other possibility is that it's a marketing car; I read on the 'decoding VINs' thread that 1200-1260 or so were marketing cars and not customer cars.
     
  9. gregincal

    gregincal Active Member

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    Yeah, almost certainly an old test drive car that's been converted into a loaner car.
     
  10. CapitalistOppressor

    CapitalistOppressor Active Member

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    #10 CapitalistOppressor, Jun 5, 2013
    Last edited: Jun 10, 2013
    No. As of a day or two ago, my preliminary numbers showed ~3050 customer deliveries in April and May. There were an additional 100 loaners built.

    The acceleration of production reported by Kimbal is necessary to put them on track to hit 4,900-5,000 deliveries again. In fact, the quarter is precisely mirroring Q1 so far.

    Deliveries
    January - 1325 - took 1st week off (after Christmas break), then produced 400 cars/week
    February - 1700 - 400/week
    March - 1875 - 500/week
    April - 1350 - took first week off (after Easter break), then produced 400 cars/week
    May - 1700 - 400 cars/week (preliminary, will possible acceleration at the end, just as in February)
    June - ?? 500 car/week production rate (per Kimbal Musk)
    Edit: Or not. Finally tracked down where I posted this misinformation. Actual tweet was 80/day, which can be interpreted in many ways.

    That said, the Street expects 4,500 deliveries in Q2, so 4,900-5,000 will surprise on the upside. Again.

    Expect more of the same, with a week off at the beginning of Q3 for July 4th celebrations. Tesla also apparently uses this time for factory maintenance, and to retool.
     
  11. vgrinshpun

    vgrinshpun Active Member

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  12. CapitalistOppressor

    CapitalistOppressor Active Member

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    There are more recent hints that Tesla will not put anything onto boats until early July. And at the shareholders meeting, Elon said deliveries would roughly equal Q1.

    As to the rest, they will need to increase production if demand stays at 20k+ in the U.S. Sooner rather than later.
     
  13. vgrinshpun

    vgrinshpun Active Member

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    Elon indicated during the shareholder's meeting (15'23") that cars will be put on a boat in late June, arriving Europe in July.
     
  14. twinklejet

    twinklejet Member

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    did the thread starter post an article to Seeking Alpha? "Tesla Q2 Preview: Huge Upside Potential For Results And Guidance"... and the share price looks like it's gapping up on this news.. Is it just me or is TMC affecting the stock price with our VIN tracking and everything LOL.
     
  15. DJ Frustration

    DJ Frustration Model X Sig, Former Model S, Model 3 Res

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    I didn't author the article but find it quite interesting to see the same ideas covered in this thread mentioned on Seeking Alpha. I'm sure these forums are watched very closely.
     
  16. pfq1982

    pfq1982 Member

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    At the annual meeting he said demand for Model S in N. America was in 15k unit range, a little above, and "continuing into Q2". Why do you say "if demand stays at 20k+ in U.S."?

    BTW, having trouble reconciling that with the over 20k "order" rate Tesla said they were getting in their 10-Q and the under 20k order rate he mentioned for Model S in North America on the supercharger call.

    Appreciate any clarity!
     
  17. vgrinshpun

    vgrinshpun Active Member

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    There were numerous references to the increased demand by Elon lately. See post linked below for a summary:

    Tesla Motors Announces 2013 Annual Stockholder Meeting - Page 4
     
  18. FredTMC

    FredTMC Model S VIN #4925

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    It's crazy (IMO) to put cars on the boat at end of June. Wait till July and recognize the revenue within the same quarter (q3)
     
  19. pfq1982

    pfq1982 Member

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    Pretty sure the SEC filings describe revenue recognition as when delivery and title transfer occurs. i.e. when the customer signs for delivery of the car.

    I think the euro cars will book in Q3.
     
  20. vgrinshpun

    vgrinshpun Active Member

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    True. Want to tweet to Elon?:smile:
     

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