2Q18 Production

[ValueAnalyst]

Tesla may delay its 200,000th US delivery to July, but I would rather focus on production figures, which have less variance from quarter to quarter, and in my opinion, more predictive power.

Without further ado, how many total units will Tesla produce in 2Q18? Please feel free to share the breakdown of your estimate in a comment below.

Good luck!

 

[vigleik]

I’m going to guess 58,000. 25k model S+X, and 33k model 3.

Tesla seems to be in a steady state of 25k model S+X per quarter. To get 33k model 3 I assumed 11 weeks of production at an average of 3k/week.

(I’m not sure why all the votes before mine were at the extremes.)

 

[ValueAnalyst]

MS 14k
MX 13k
M3 38k
65,000

 

[trentbridge]

MS 12.5k
MX 11.5k
M3 25.5k

47.5k

April production of Model 3 was 6.5k, May 7.5k, and June 11.5k.

Just think the two production shutdowns has greater effect, and slower production immediately afterwards..and Tesla cannot afford to have 9,000-12,000 Model 3 "in transit" at the end of the quarter.
Where are the "invites" for new US buyers?

 

[ValueAnalyst]

MS 12.5k
MX 11.5k
M3 25.5k

47.5k

April production of Model 3 was 6.5k, May 7.5k, and June 11.5k.

Just think the two production shutdowns has greater effect, and slower production immediately afterwards..and Tesla cannot afford to have 9,000-12,000 Model 3 "in transit" at the end of the quarter.
Where are the "invites" for new US buyers?

Please provide support/source for your April/May Model 3 estimates.

 

[trentbridge]

<<April production of Model 3 was 6.5k, May 7.5k, and June 11.5k.>>

All my estimates:

April - had first shutdown : so three weeks at about 2k. InsideEVs had roughly 4k sales plus 1k to Canada.
May - Musk announces 500/day production late in month so assuming incremental improvement over April plus shutdown.
June - Expecting 3,000 a week production after slow return to production - first week of 1500.

I'm expecting a burst at the end of June/beginning July of over 4000 per week...but probably after June 30th.
Not a pessimist but expect the target of 5000/week to be reached in July.

 

[electracity]

Not a pessimist but expect the target of 5000/week to be reached in July.

Nah, too many new people and processes.

 

[trentbridge]

Nah, too many new people and processes.

The GF1 is already capable of 5,000 a week before the air-freighted equipment is installed. Musk said:

On May 2:

“We got just in the last 24 hours at the Gigafactory managed to achieve a sustained rate of over 3,000 packs per week, and actually reached a peak hour with extrapolated outward would be a rate of about 5,000 cars per week.”


Right now, Fremont is approaching 500 a day: as Musk said recently:

“It is looking quite likely that we will exceed 500 vehicles per day across all Model 3 production zones this week.”

Probably a partially-trained third shift introduced in June could add another 200/day. 700/day x 7 = 4900.

 

[Ellec]

I predict 25k S/X and 40k Model 3s. They have registered 31k Model 3 VINS this quarter so far and I reckon another 10k or so will be registered until middle of June (VINS registered after might fall into July).

So 65k is my guess.

 

[dhanson865]

MS 14k
MX 13k
M3 38k
65,000

I think that is close but

Q1 production totaled 34,494 (9,766 were Model 3)
Q1 deliveries totaled 29,980 (8,180 were Model 3)

So there will be a few thousand S and X deliveries this quarter left over from last quarters production. Maybe a slight dip in S/X production to offset that. They'll want to keep S/X inventory as low as possible in Q2 since they will have more Model 3 inventory trying to avoid the 200,000 US in Q2 trigger.

I went with 62,500 in the poll.

 

[dhanson865]

<<April production of Model 3 was 6.5k, May 7.5k, and June 11.5k.>>

All my estimates:

April - had first shutdown : so three weeks at about 2k. InsideEVs had roughly 4k sales plus 1k to Canada.
May - Musk announces 500/day production late in month so assuming incremental improvement over April plus shutdown.
June - Expecting 3,000 a week production after slow return to production - first week of 1500.

I'm expecting a burst at the end of June/beginning July of over 4000 per week...but probably after June 30th.
Not a pessimist but expect the target of 5000/week to be reached in July.

Q1 production totaled 34,494 (9,766 were Model 3)
Q1 deliveries totaled 29,980 (8,180 were Model 3)

If you use InsideEVs those are deliveries, but this thread is about production. So you'd have to scale up your April numbers to account for produced in April but not delivered in April.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

One thing is for sure: estimates are all over the place.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

I’m going to guess 58,000. 25k model S+X, and 33k model 3.

Tesla seems to be in a steady state of 25k model S+X per quarter. To get 33k model 3 I assumed 11 weeks of production at an average of 3k/week.

Thank you for sharing your estimates.

There are 91 days in Q2, and IIRC the total downtime in the quarter was/will be 10 days. Your 11-week estimate translates to 77 days, or 4 days short of the 81 days I'm using for my estimate. Are you assuming cushion for conservatism, or do you expect/know of another scheduled downtime of four days in June?

(I’m not sure why all the votes before mine were at the extremes.)

First few votes usually do not have much predictive power for poll results, then the variance usually declines as more votes roll in during the first few hours up to a day or so, and then the mean and standard deviation rarely change much, until a major change in facts. Hope this helps.

Having said that, you're right that the range of estimates is unusually high in this poll.

 

[2virgule5]

23k MS and MX as some experienced workers on these lines may have been put to the M3 line. Potential for up to 25k.

32k M3 ; Bloomberg tracker says about 32k total production so far (12k being YTD end Q1). After shutdown I estimate about 4 weeks at 3k average run rate (slower at start, and closing the finish line close of promised 5k in the last week). Maybe up to 35k produced in Q2 but that’s stretch.

So 55-60k max total.

 

[GeorgeSymonds]

Like others I think the MS/MX are more or less consistent - Max'd out MS and MX seem to be around 25.5k a quarter, but I suspect slightly down - I'll go for 22k for the pair.

M3 I'll go for an average of 2.5k a week over 12 weeks - 30k for the quarter, what they lost early on they'll be making up for through June.

Total of 52k which will be a 100% increase on Q2 2017 which would be a nice stat.

 

[Tiger]

This is a trick question, almost read 2018 instead of 2Q18. Would be better to write Q2 2018

 

[ValueAnalyst]

This is a trick question, almost read 2018 instead of 2Q18. Would be better to write Q2 2018

Creating polls AND testing your eyesight.

 

[EinSV]

My guesstimate is 55K -- 25K S/X plus 30K Model 3.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

My guesstimate is 55K -- 25K S/X plus 30K Model 3.

Troy estimates Model 3 production for April at 8k and May at more than 11k. Given that his estimates are accurate, as his past ones, do you expect only 11k to be produced in June, or 366/day, or slightly more than 2,500/week?

 

[EinSV]

Troy estimates Model 3 production for April at 8k and May at more than 11k. Given that his estimates are accurate, as his past ones, do you expect only 11k to be produced in June, or 366/day, or slightly more than 2,500/week?

My estimate factors in my guess/assumption that there will be another shutdown in the second half of June so that sustainable production rate is maximized going into Q3. This would impact June total production but doesn't matter IMO because sustainable production rate exiting Q2 is much more important than total Q2 production. Even with that assumption, I acknowledge that my Model 3 production estimate is conservative and I would love to see it beaten by a healthy margin.