Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register

2Q18 Production

How Many S/X/3 Will Tesla Produce in 2Q18?

  • 50,000 or less

    Votes: 13 18.3%
  • 52,500

    Votes: 7 9.9%
  • 55,000

    Votes: 20 28.2%
  • 57,500

    Votes: 5 7.0%
  • 60,000

    Votes: 12 16.9%
  • 62,500

    Votes: 2 2.8%
  • 65,000

    Votes: 3 4.2%
  • 67,500

    Votes: 1 1.4%
  • 70,000 or more

    Votes: 8 11.3%

  • Total voters
    71
  • Poll closed .
My estimate factors in my guess/assumption that there will be another shutdown in the second half of June so that sustainable production rate is maximized going into Q3. This would impact June total production but doesn't matter IMO because sustainable production rate exiting Q2 is much more important than total Q2 production. Even with that assumption, I acknowledge that my Model 3 production estimate is conservative and I would love to see it beaten by a healthy margin.

Elon’s leaked e-mail to employees didn’t mention another shutdown in June. Why would there be a third shutdown in Q2?
 

EinSV

Active Member
Feb 6, 2016
4,350
21,939
NorCal
Elon’s leaked e-mail to employees didn’t mention another shutdown in June. Why would there be a third shutdown in Q2?

There was one shutdown in late April and one in late May (IDK if other short pauses). To maximize production rate I am speculating they may have enough new info by late June for another optimization round. Total speculation and could easily be wrong but the key number is 5K/week and I think Elon will not hesitate to shut down the line again in June if it’s needed to meet, exceed or get close to the target.
 
  • Helpful
Reactions: ValueAnalyst
There was one shutdown in late April and one in late May (IDK if other short pauses). To maximize production rate I am speculating they may have enough new info by late June for another optimization round. Total speculation and could easily be wrong but the key number is 5K/week and I think Elon will not hesitate to shut down the line again in June if it’s needed to meet, exceed or get close to the target.

A few days following previous shutdowns production rate had jumped by up to 100%, but the goal this time seems relatively slow to build and for a relatively smaller increase: 500/day to 715/day, or 43%, over four to five weeks.

I’d be surprised if there would need to be another shutdown to achieve this relatively smaller increase compared to previous step-ups.
 
  • Helpful
Reactions: EinSV

EinSV

Active Member
Feb 6, 2016
4,350
21,939
NorCal
A few days following previous shutdowns production rate had jumped by up to 100%, but the goal this time seems relatively slow to build and for a relatively smaller increase: 500/day to 715/day, or 43%, over four to five weeks.

I’d be surprised if there would need to be another shutdown to achieve this relatively smaller increase compared to previous step-ups.

VA, that could definitely turn out to be the case but as mentioned I prefer to be conservative with my estimate, especially given past challenges ramping production.
 
  • Like
Reactions: bdy0627
I wonder if it makes sense for Tesla - seeing the 200,000 delivery mark approaching - to max Model 3 production in June so as to have a ten thousand excess inventory. That's $500 million tied up in undelivered Model 3s. I think it makes sense to ease back on production as the third shift starts and get ready to push production to 4000-5000 in the last ten days of June so cars can be immediately delivered. That is why I was estimating a lower production in Q2 than anyone else. It has everything to do with cash flow.
 

MP3Mike

Well-Known Member
Feb 1, 2016
20,441
51,923
Oregon
I wonder if it makes sense for Tesla - seeing the 200,000 delivery mark approaching - to max Model 3 production in June so as to have a ten thousand excess inventory. That's $500 million tied up in undelivered Model 3s. I think it makes sense to ease back on production as the third shift starts and get ready to push production to 4000-5000 in the last ten days of June so cars can be immediately delivered. That is why I was estimating a lower production in Q2 than anyone else. It has everything to do with cash flow.

But what about shipping most of the June Model 3 production to Canada? Why idle the production line when you have rabid customers elsewhere that want to give you their money?
 
  • Like
Reactions: EinSV
I wonder if it makes sense for Tesla - seeing the 200,000 delivery mark approaching - to max Model 3 production in June so as to have a ten thousand excess inventory. That's $500 million tied up in undelivered Model 3s. I think it makes sense to ease back on production as the third shift starts and get ready to push production to 4000-5000 in the last ten days of June so cars can be immediately delivered. That is why I was estimating a lower production in Q2 than anyone else. It has everything to do with cash flow.

Why slowdown production, if produced cars can be parked somewhere for 2-3 weeks, since supplier payments for June parts are not until August?
 

EinSV

Active Member
Feb 6, 2016
4,350
21,939
NorCal
Why slowdown production, if produced cars can be parked somewhere for 2-3 weeks, since supplier payments for June parts are not until August?

Plus they can start shipping a bunch of cars to the East Coast in mid- to late June so they are delivered in early July, rather than the usual staging of East Coast production followed by West Coast to maximize quarterly deliveries. Investors would have no problem recognizing the benefit of having a large number of vehicles in transit at the end of the quarter.
 
Plus they can start shipping a bunch of cars to the East Coast in mid- to late June so they are delivered in early July, rather than the usual staging of East Coast production followed by West Coast to maximize quarterly deliveries. Investors would have no problem recognizing the benefit of having a large number of vehicles in transit at the end of the quarter.

Yes, possible. I would expect to see accelerated VIN assignments to East Coast in the coming week if that were to happen.
 

EinSV

Active Member
Feb 6, 2016
4,350
21,939
NorCal
Yes, possible. I would expect to see accelerated VIN assignments to East Coast in the coming week if that were to happen.

I believe they have changed the VIN assignment process so that a VIN is not provided until close to delivery but there may be other signs earlier in the month such as a lower than expected numbers of US VIN assignments and scheduled June deliveries (which we've already seen in May due to the Canadian deliveries).
 
Last edited:
Poll ranges suck. They exited May producing about 1400 cars per week. If they double that weekly average for Q3 they will produce about 37000 cars.

Possibilities why your post is so off vs this thread:

  • You are thinking US not Worldwide?
  • You are thinking Model 3 only, not including Model S and X?
  • All of the above?
as a reminder this thread is about Production not Deliveries, It includes Model S and X no matter what country they are sold in.
 
  • Like
Reactions: ValueAnalyst

electracity

Active Member
Jun 8, 2015
4,031
3,466
60606
Possibilities why your post is so off vs this thread:

  • You are thinking US not Worldwide?
  • You are thinking Model 3 only, not including Model S and X?
  • All of the above?
as a reminder this thread is about Production not Deliveries, It includes Model S and X no matter what country they are sold in.

Yeah, I saw valueanalyst and I thought it was for the model 3. S/X seems pretty flat, so I'm not sure why that would be interesting. I think Tesla will be doing well if they can exit Q3 making 3000 M3 a week, and exit Q4 making 4000.

Since my 2018 stretch goal for Tesla is 250,000 vehicles, I guess I will pick 55,000 for Q3.
 
Yeah, I saw valueanalyst and I thought it was for the model 3. S/X seems pretty flat, so I'm not sure why that would be interesting. I think Tesla will be doing well if they can exit Q3 making 3000 M3 a week, and exit Q4 making 4000.

Since my 2018 stretch goal for Tesla is 250,000 vehicles, I guess I will pick 55,000 for Q3.
Wait, you don't buy into the profit part in Q3/Q4? That kind of hinges on them going the full quarter above 4k/week for the Model 3. As they are now already at 3k/week it's kind of odd to assume they only reach that level by Q3 end (i.e. 4 months from now).
 

mrdoubleb

Active Member
Supporting Member
Jul 2, 2013
2,615
14,579
Budapest, Hungary
Yeah, I saw valueanalyst and I thought it was for the model 3. S/X seems pretty flat, so I'm not sure why that would be interesting. I think Tesla will be doing well if they can exit Q3 making 3000 M3 a week, and exit Q4 making 4000.

Since my 2018 stretch goal for Tesla is 250,000 vehicles, I guess I will pick 55,000 for Q3.
Elon confirmed last week that they have past 500 Model 3s per day. That's 3500 per week before the shutdown to crank it up higher.

Barring some catastrophic mishap with the upgrade they should be able to hit their targets this time.
 

GeorgeSymonds

Active Member
Moderator
Mar 16, 2018
2,725
3,186
UK
Like others I think the MS/MX are more or less consistent - Max'd out MS and MX seem to be around 25.5k a quarter, but I suspect slightly down - I'll go for 22k for the pair.

M3 I'll go for an average of 2.5k a week over 12 weeks - 30k for the quarter, what they lost early on they'll be making up for through June.

Total of 52k which will be a 100% increase on Q2 2017 which would be a nice stat.

M3 I believe came in at 28578 so I was less than 5% out
MS/MX came in at 24861 so I was under 12% out
Combined was 53,439 v my 52k so overall less than 3% out - I can live with that
 

About Us

Formed in 2006, Tesla Motors Club (TMC) was the first independent online Tesla community. Today it remains the largest and most dynamic community of Tesla enthusiasts. Learn more.

Do you value your experience at TMC? Consider becoming a Supporting Member of Tesla Motors Club. As a thank you for your contribution, you'll get nearly no ads in the Community and Groups sections. Additional perks are available depending on the level of contribution. Please visit the Account Upgrades page for more details.


SUPPORT TMC
Top