My estimate factors in my guess/assumption that there will be another shutdown in the second half of June so that sustainable production rate is maximized going into Q3. This would impact June total production but doesn't matter IMO because sustainable production rate exiting Q2 is much more important than total Q2 production. Even with that assumption, I acknowledge that my Model 3 production estimate is conservative and I would love to see it beaten by a healthy margin.
Elon’s leaked e-mail to employees didn’t mention another shutdown in June. Why would there be a third shutdown in Q2?