Elon’s leaked e-mail to employees didn’t mention another shutdown in June. Why would there be a third shutdown in Q2?
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2Q18 Production
- Thread starter ValueAnalyst
- Start date
Elon’s leaked e-mail to employees didn’t mention another shutdown in June. Why would there be a third shutdown in Q2?
There was one shutdown in late April and one in late May (IDK if other short pauses). To maximize production rate I am speculating they may have enough new info by late June for another optimization round. Total speculation and could easily be wrong but the key number is 5K/week and I think Elon will not hesitate to shut down the line again in June if it’s needed to meet, exceed or get close to the target.
A few days following previous shutdowns production rate had jumped by up to 100%, but the goal this time seems relatively slow to build and for a relatively smaller increase: 500/day to 715/day, or 43%, over four to five weeks.
I’d be surprised if there would need to be another shutdown to achieve this relatively smaller increase compared to previous step-ups.
I wonder if it makes sense for Tesla - seeing the 200,000 delivery mark approaching - to max Model 3 production in June so as to have a ten thousand excess inventory. That's $500 million tied up in undelivered Model 3s. I think it makes sense to ease back on production as the third shift starts and get ready to push production to 4000-5000 in the last ten days of June so cars can be immediately delivered. That is why I was estimating a lower production in Q2 than anyone else. It has everything to do with cash flow.
But what about shipping most of the June Model 3 production to Canada? Why idle the production line when you have rabid customers elsewhere that want to give you their money?
Why slowdown production, if produced cars can be parked somewhere for 2-3 weeks, since supplier payments for June parts are not until August?
Plus they can start shipping a bunch of cars to the East Coast in mid- to late June so they are delivered in early July, rather than the usual staging of East Coast production followed by West Coast to maximize quarterly deliveries. Investors would have no problem recognizing the benefit of having a large number of vehicles in transit at the end of the quarter.
Yes, possible. I would expect to see accelerated VIN assignments to East Coast in the coming week if that were to happen.
I believe they have changed the VIN assignment process so that a VIN is not provided until close to delivery but there may be other signs earlier in the month such as a lower than expected numbers of US VIN assignments and scheduled June deliveries (which we've already seen in May due to the Canadian deliveries).
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I thought they didn't assign VINs more than a week or two in advance anymore. So you wouldn't see VIN assignments until mid-June at the earliest.
Given that nearly 85% selected 65,000 or below, I conclude that most voters did not confuse 2Q18 with 2018 and have 20/20 vision.
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Poll ranges suck. They exited May producing about 1400 cars per week. If they double that weekly average for Q3 they will produce about 37000 cars.
dhanson865
Well-Known Member
Possibilities why your post is so off vs this thread:
- You are thinking US not Worldwide?
- You are thinking Model 3 only, not including Model S and X?
- All of the above?
Yeah, I saw valueanalyst and I thought it was for the model 3. S/X seems pretty flat, so I'm not sure why that would be interesting. I think Tesla will be doing well if they can exit Q3 making 3000 M3 a week, and exit Q4 making 4000.
Since my 2018 stretch goal for Tesla is 250,000 vehicles, I guess I will pick 55,000 for Q3.
Mario Kadastik
Active Member
Wait, you don't buy into the profit part in Q3/Q4? That kind of hinges on them going the full quarter above 4k/week for the Model 3. As they are now already at 3k/week it's kind of odd to assume they only reach that level by Q3 end (i.e. 4 months from now).
Elon confirmed last week that they have past 500 Model 3s per day. That's 3500 per week before the shutdown to crank it up higher.
Barring some catastrophic mishap with the upgrade they should be able to hit their targets this time.
M3 I believe came in at 28578 so I was less than 5% out
MS/MX came in at 24861 so I was under 12% out
Combined was 53,439 v my 52k so overall less than 3% out - I can live with that
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