I think that is close but
Q1 production totaled 34,494 (9,766 were Model 3)
Q1 deliveries totaled 29,980 (8,180 were Model 3)
So there will be a few thousand S and X deliveries this quarter left over from last quarters production. Maybe a slight dip in S/X production to offset that. They'll want to keep S/X inventory as low as possible in Q2 since they will have more Model 3 inventory trying to avoid the 200,000 US in Q2 trigger.
I went with 62,500 in the poll.