-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
No, different production tooling. That's my whole point. Just because they are getting more robots to build the Model 3 doesn't mean they don't already have robots building it.
Robots are not the tools when they talk about that. Production tooling are the dies, stamps, and cutters and such. The robots may use the tools but they aren't the tools themselves.
In the current case they've been using a lot of the production tooling already, it may be being used by already in place robots or by something else that is temporary.
The main thing is that all of the following that sandpiper is worrying about is already being tested:
and that this isn't true:
That directly contradicts what Tesla has said about the release candidates.
and that this isn't true:
That directly contradicts what Tesla has said about the release candidates.
This is odd. I'm usually more on the side that's accused of being Tesla boosters.
Without getting too deeply into the weeds, I find myself being a little skeptical that they're really running the samples on actual production tooling. For the sheet metal, they don't even have the presses in yet, so where are the parts coming from? They have to be from development presses at the tooling manufacturer's shop. Unless there's an alternative that I'm not seeing?
As to the welding/assembly and such... I'm sure they're testing various aspects of the process in-plant. But normally the supplier of the automation subsystems will also supply the robot tooling, assembly fixturing and such. These could only have been tested on prototype parts, which are usually few in number and don't quite match the final parts. And that tooling usually gets delivered with the robots.
This is all normal of course, but with a brand new line, for a brand new product, that was designed and constructed in a big hurry, it still strikes me as wildly optimistic that anything will be coming out of the production line in 10-12 weeks. I sincerely hope that I'm wrong, and I would very much love to be proven so.
And if I am proven wrong will be even more impressed with the company than I already am.
This is odd. I'm usually more on the side that's accused of being Tesla boosters.
Without getting too deeply into the weeds, I find myself being a little skeptical that they're really running the samples on actual production tooling. For the sheet metal, they don't even have the presses in yet, so where are the parts coming from? They have to be from development presses at the tooling manufacturer's shop. Unless there's an alternative that I'm not seeing?
I wonder if they attached the Model 3 dies to the Model S or X stamping equipment. Didn't they sort of mention that in Feb? They probably ran the line for a week or two to stamp out a dozen Model 3's for various testing pursposes and we're probably seeing those on the road now.
Rashomon
Member
It is wildly optimistic to expect the line to fire up and run smoothly in July. It will be a ramp. No one -- and I repeat -- no one, knows how shallow or steep the ramp will be. We're deep into unknown unknowns. If all goes really really well, Tesla will be cranking out substantial numbers of Model 3s by the end of the year.
The RC candidates likely have a substantial number of production parts, but others that almost surely don't qualify as production parts on production tooling, and it wasn't assembled by production processes. It would not be considered a pilot production vehicle at any other manufacturer. It's a high-production-part content beta, which is very good for testing. Tesla is on an aggressive schedule, and it may work out wonderfully -- or not. If it does, Tesla will have taught the industry something about what can be done with a vehicle designed specifically for robotic production and extensively simulated. Grab some popcorn and enjoy the show.
The RC candidates likely have a substantial number of production parts, but others that almost surely don't qualify as production parts on production tooling, and it wasn't assembled by production processes. It would not be considered a pilot production vehicle at any other manufacturer. It's a high-production-part content beta, which is very good for testing. Tesla is on an aggressive schedule, and it may work out wonderfully -- or not. If it does, Tesla will have taught the industry something about what can be done with a vehicle designed specifically for robotic production and extensively simulated. Grab some popcorn and enjoy the show.
Wait, the 100 days doesn't count.... Or does it... I can't keep up...
(Sorry, back to our normally scheduled random tea leaf reading...)
