3 or Y

[SSF3]

If you can wait and are planning on ordering one of the earlier models, prob LR models with the “Premium Package”, I would definitely wait for the Y. I love my 3, but just the trunk situation alone is worth waiting. The hatch is way more practical imo, plus it comes from the factory with electric liftgate.

 

[MikeR55]

If you can wait and are planning on ordering one of the earlier models, prob LR models with the “Premium Package”, I would definitely wait for the Y. I love my 3, but just the trunk situation alone is worth waiting. The hatch is way more practical imo, plus it comes from the factory with electric liftgate.

Yeah I'd get the LR. I'm sure it would take at least 8 months from now to get one. Am I that patient is the real question.

Or just get the 3 now, wait 2 years, trade in the 3,so I don't get early vin

 

[Knightshade]

Tesla Model 3 production appears to have surpassed the 6k/week mark
As soon as Tesla reached volume production you could get a Model 3 long range, no reservation required.
Tesla drops reservation system for Americans and Canadians looking to buy their Model 3

Yes- and notice how those stories are dated about 1 full year after initial production?

So...confirms literally what I said in the post you're replying to.

Making your reply kind of confusing as to its purpose.

 

[Kleenerth3]

A Model Y in two or three months? I seriously doubt it. Even if they begin production it will be slow, and who knows how many orders they have in their backlog. And yes, I would not want to take an early serial number.

I doubt that the rollout will be that bad. Like daviddavid said, about 65% of the Y is a 3. The entire battery, drivetrain and much of the interior are identical. Tesla is also well aware of the 3 production problems in the early rollout and is paying very close attention to build quality. We're looking to buy a Y but not for a year. If we had the $ now it wouldn't worry me at all to put an order in. Tesla hasn't had to sweat heavy production #s until the affordable 3 came into the picture.

 

[RedStealth]

Yeah I'd get the LR. I'm sure it would take at least 8 months from now to get one. Am I that patient is the real question.

Or just get the 3 now, wait 2 years, trade in the 3,so I don't get early vin

Exactly what MikeR55 said is what i did. Got a 2020 model 3 stealth instead of waiting, and see what happens with the Model Y in 2 years then trade up or just buy outright.

 

[DanCar]

Making your reply kind of confusing as to its purpose.

Same purpose as your original post.

 

[boriszima]

The reports are based on Deutsche Bank releasing a note today predicting that manufacturing of the Y will start towards the end of Q1. They base the prediction on Tesla's request to its suppliers to move up the date for parts delivery.

The one other consideration, besides style preference, is that the federal tax credit is completely over on December 31st for Teslas. It's currently at $1875.

yep, there is no confirmation from Tesla. If Mike can wait a year, sure thing. Even thought model Y shares a lot with model 3, they still need to be made. Maybe a faster ramp up but still. I am also waiting to see when Y will come out.

 

[640k]

Remember that the Y is like 65% of a 3. So it probably isn't as much of a risk of a "new car" given they are using so much of the 3's core. Either way, I think you are looking at more than six months if you don't have an order already.

what 65% of the vehicle are you referring to? the production is almost 100% new compared to the 3's assembly.

Tesla's Elon Musk details Model Y manufacturing improvements, insight on design

“We tried to make the car as similar to the [Model 3] as possible except in the case where a change was necessary to achieve SUV functionality…[all] while still having a low drag coefficient and not increasing the frontal area too much,” he detailed. Overall, Musk concluded that CdA (automobile drag coefficient) and mass of the Model Y only affect 8-10% of the battery range when compared to the Model 3.

The design of Tesla’s Model Y and lessons learned from Model 3 production also led to some manufacturing improvements for the electric crossover. Musk detailed how the Model Y underbody was switched to aluminum casting instead of stamped steel and aluminum pieces, which greatly simplifies the moving parts involved in making the vehicle.

This change effectively means that initially, using two castings to make the structure will take the process from 70 parts to 4 (castings plus joiners), and once the “big” casting machine comes into operation, the process will have brought the process from 70 parts to 1 (casting only). Using casting over stamping reduces the weight of the Model Y, improves MHB (heat produced), lowers cost due to the smaller number of parts necessary, and significantly drops capital expenditure on robots.

Tesla will have (nearly) completely replaced the wiring harness, changed the assembly from stamps and joiners to single casts and assembly will be more automated, reducing manufacturing costs.

the battery, motor, MCU and probably interior components are largely the same, but nearly everything else will be different.

 

[ngogas]

What's more important - range or interior space? Otherwise, basically the same EV's.

Well put. Personally I can lose a few miles for more space. But that is just what I need for the moment.

 

[daviddavid]

btw, something to consider is getting a used S. Personally that is what I did when waiting for my 3. You have to be okay with less tech and the obvious risks of buying a used car. Although Tesla does back their used cars quite well. My point is you can get a 2016 AWD with about 40K miles with similar range for about the same money for a Y. Tesla's are VERY different than ICE cars in that the mileage is very different and shouldn't be such a factor. I love my S and feel it was the right call. The main risk with a Gen1 S is the MCU could go out at some point. Many threads on how to deal with that (flash drive exposure). Bottom line is I would at least explore the option. Might be a fit for you.

 

[toolman335]

I find the trunk size of my 3 plenty big enough. I'm even contemplating putting a spare tire in there.

The huge red flag for me was the press release you guys are referring to that leads us to believe the timeline for the Y has been moved up to mid-2020. That means they're rushing again. Stay away!

Tesla has the Model 3 production system pretty much mastered. This is year 3 of production so buy one and have piece of mind.

Any early Y owners should be nervous as hell about potential issues. Right now the 3 can give you peace of mind.

 

[idog63]

if both were sitting available in front of me i would probably go with a Y but i do not regret getting my p3d-

 

[jordanair45]

I was waiting for the Y and I figured, I really don't need 10% more car than the 3, so I ordered the 3. I do want the Y though. Having extra space is nice, but not needed (for my situation).

 

[Nocturnal]

If you don't have a strong desire to have a sedan, the Y is a no-brainer. I'm not expecting anywhere near the issues with the Y as the 3 (which weren't even that bad). The Y is 75% the same as the 3 so issues are really ironed out.

 

[Fairchild]

Y unless you like you are young and like you butt dragging on the ground. Had my 3 for six weeks and sold it. Spoiled by the height of the X. Too low. Then again most sedans are too low for me. Tore a rotator cuff trying to get out of one. Regret that ride in a Hyundai Veloster rental and the subsequent surgery and recovery.

Although it is an individual decision, I think the Y would be worth the wait. It is not really totally new, inasmuch as it is a retooled 3. Got a new S, X and 3 when they came out with zero problems. My new 2019 X LR LUDICROUS was plagued with problems, some I haven't even had repaired yet at 12000 miles (just lazy) - like crooked Dual Motor emblem, etc.

To each their own. My vote goes to Y not? In the long run, I think you will be happy you waited.

 

[Fairchild]

I am so happy with my M3 I highly recommend it.
The quality will be worse with MY initially. We all expect that. It is a given.

Not at all a given. I got S, X, and 3 when they first came out. Not one problem with any of them.
My new 2019 X LR LUDICROUS was plagued with problems, some I haven't even had repaired yet at 12000 miles (just lazy) - like crooked Dual Motor emblem, etc. And how long has the X been out?

 

[dgo3]

Definitely prefer the hatchback and (hopefully) built-in hitch for a bike rack. BUT range in our LR AWD 3 is marginal in SW CO. I already can't get back home from Albuquerque or Santa Fe without going an hour out of the way for a SC unless the weather is perfect. Impossible in the winter. Places like Page AZ or Phoenix via Flagstaff are out of reach too with a headwind, rain, or cooler temps. So, no way I can go with lower range. I know that's not the case for the vast majority that live in areas with good SC coverage, but there are still parts of the west that really stretch the range limit!

 

[Nocturnal]

what 65% of the vehicle are you referring to? the production is almost 100% new compared to the 3's assembly.

Tesla's Elon Musk details Model Y manufacturing improvements, insight on design



Tesla will have (nearly) completely replaced the wiring harness, changed the assembly from stamps and joiners to single casts and assembly will be more automated, reducing manufacturing costs.

the battery, motor, MCU and probably interior components are largely the same, but nearly everything else will be different.

75% of the same content per Tesla.

 

[jboy210]

Doesn't quite work that way. First are people in the bay area. Since he is in L.A. he might be able to figure out how to pick up near Fremont factory. Another high priority is that higher spec'd cars get sold first. So if ordering top of the line, you get in front of the line.
If ordering the base model, whether you reserved early or not, you will likely have to wait 6+ months after volume production begins.

I live 10 miles from the factory. Does this mean I could get a Y quickly and resell it to someone way down the line for a premium? Hmmm.

 

[Kleenerth3]

I live 10 miles from the factory. Does this mean I could get a Y quickly and resell it to someone way down the line for a premium? Hmmm.

LOL! And they say Tesla owners gotta be crazy... HAH!!!