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300,000 new model 3's will be clogging supercharging sites ?

Discussion in 'Model S' started by sharrisbhs, Jul 4, 2017.

  1. sharrisbhs

    sharrisbhs Member

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    I have recently completed my first (in Calif) cross-country tesla trip. Had no problem with supercharging sites. Always a slot available...but often only 1 or 2. Wondering what that same trip will be like after 300,000 model 3;s hit the streets!
     
  2. SageBrush

    SageBrush Active Member

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    It will be terrible!
    Sell your car why you can.

    I'll offer $20k
     
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  3. TexasEV

    TexasEV Well-Known Member

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    While you were on your cross country trip there were other threads discussing this. Maybe time to catch up on your reading?
     
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  4. Qbenjamin

    Qbenjamin Ballin On A Budget

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    I don't and can't understand for the life of me why people continue to press the panic button on the supercharger topic. They are meant to be used while going on trips that are hundreds of miles from your home. If everyone understood and abided by that concept, the SC's wouldn't and won't be an issue.
     
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  5. Buster1

    Buster1 Member

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    Aren't all the Model 3s paying for supercharging anyway? I don't think they will be clogging up the superchargers too much, and if they're paying as well that will keep the local cars away while the 'travelling' Model 3s will utilize the superchargers. Mostly.
     
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  6. EVCarGUy

    EVCarGUy Member

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    For model 3 owners, less likely to have home charging, supercharging will be the primary charging method for many
     
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  7. ChadS

    ChadS Petroleum is for sissies

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    Yeah, and all 300k of them will be on the road on Friday, I hear.

    There are now 200 times as many Teslas on the road as when my wife got her car. Of course, there are about 200 times as many superchargers as there were then too. Driving on superchargers is easier now than it was then.

    Tesla knows how many cars they will make, how busy the superchargers are, how often people take road trips, and where they go. And they have said they will expand the network proportional to use.

    So why assume they will stop building superchargers tomorrow? I mean, it's possible, but sure doesn't seem to be the most likely case.
     
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  8. TexasEV

    TexasEV Well-Known Member

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    #8 TexasEV, Jul 4, 2017
    Last edited: Jul 4, 2017
    I don't know why people keep assuming that. Most people who buy new $35,0000-50,000 cars in the U.S. have houses with garages. How many new BMWs do you see at apartments? Perhaps this is true in a few cities, but not in most of the country.

    Don't forget a large number of Model S owners previously were buyers of cars in that price range. Most had never bought a car nearlynthat expensive before.
     
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  9. KJD

    KJD Supporting Member

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    As long as Tesla sticks with the plan of only giving away a small amount of electricity every year per car and then they have to pay for everything after that, I do not see a problem.

    If they were to continue with unlimited free charging for life, then you might have something to worry about.
     
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  10. Buster1

    Buster1 Member

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    Huh? Just digging around the Nissan Leaf page and it appears that many reports talk of Leaf owners using home charging. Even at 120V. Nissan also offers a 240V "wall charger" that can be installed.

    I think a lot of Model 3 folks will opt for a home charging solution. In fact, I bet a majority will.
     
  11. EVCarGUy

    EVCarGUy Member

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    You assume the makeup/distribution of electric car buyers is similar to ICE. The majority of EVs are sold in urban California. Most people in urban California with $30-50k cars can not afford homes with garages.

    Superchargers in the silicon valley area are packed right now with folks who make enough money to buy a $100k car but not a $1M home. This most definitely will get worse with Model 3 as there will be even more folks who can afford $35-50k for a car and still can't afford a $1M home.

    While California is the extreme, house prices in Portland, Seattle (also concentrations of electric car buyers) also go against your generalization.
     
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  12. calisnow

    calisnow Active Member

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    Maybe write to Elon - he probably hasn't thought of this issue.
     
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  13. jelloslug

    jelloslug Active Member

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    Every apartment complex near me is ~50% BMWs in the parking lot. The largest BMW factory in the world being just down the road probably has something to do with that though....
     
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  14. Electricfan

    Electricfan Active Member

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  15. Weezer Fan

    Weezer Fan Member

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    I do not own a Tesla yet, but have a Model 3 reserved. I will charge in my garage. Will only need superchargers when driving to KC from Denver, maybe a few times in the mountains. I am more concerned about the capacity of the service centers. Those seem to be bottlenecked now in some areas.
     
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  16. scottf200

    scottf200 Active Member

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    Not sure about that. I have a friend with an early reservation and he is convinced they are grandfathered in. (?)
     
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  17. KJD

    KJD Supporting Member

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    Wishful thinking not based on fact in any way shape or form.
     
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  18. Science fan

    Science fan Member

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    Shar, it is also a concern of mine. However, trying to save a buck by over-using the free supercharging near their own homes will not be an issue for Model 3 owners, since they will have to pay to use it, likely a bit more than the raw cost of electricity. If I did not own a home or live in an apartment with a dedicated (to me) charging station, I would simply buy a hybrid. Also, the number of superchargers is about to be doubled this year. Hopefully, all will be well for us occasional users.
     
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  19. cpa

    cpa Active Member

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    Tesla sailed off into uncharted waters when they announced their Supercharger program (free, unlimited, for life) several years ago. They had grand and ambitious plans to cover the globe with Superchargers to enable long distance driving with reasonably fast recharging times.

    Tesla had no idea during the initial phases how popular their SC network would become. They likely assumed that 99.95% of us would charge at home. It is also possible that they did not plan adequately for owners who lived in condos or apartment complexes that did not have AC charging available, or only had 110V/15A plugs. Eighteen months after the first fifty or so SC were open, Tesla began to figure out that "locals" were using nearby SC instead of charging at home. Congestion started to flare up, particularly on the Peninsula, San Diego, Burbank, and San Juan Capistrano. Moreover, people loved taking short, medium and long road trips because it was so much fun to drive! I doubt that Tesla's crystal ball anticipated the surge in people's road trips.

    Tesla has been learning along the way about peoples' behavior and their usage of SCs.

    Tesla has also announced over the years their planned Supercharger construction for the coming year or two. These announcements have turned out to be quite optimistic; they have fallen short year after year. The reasons are numerous; likely some of the blame falls upon Tesla, but also there are myriad factors beyond Tesla's control that thwarted or delayed those ambitious plans.

    We have also seen that popular highways receive redundant SCs in California (Interstate 5, US50, Interstate 80, Interstate 15 [Yermo is under construction/permitting]) to reduce congestion and afford drivers choices as to where to stop. This likely will continue nationwide.

    I believe that Tesla is trying their best, based upon historical data, to advance the construction and addition of Supercharger locations. In California popular SC locations (Gilroy, Dublin, Barstow, Harris Ranch, Oxnard, Rocklin) many stalls have been added--sometimes doubling the hookups. Burbank, notorious for its 6-stall SC at the Service Center, has a 20-stall SC under construction a few blocks away at a parking structure for the downtown mall.

    So, Tesla is trying to address the expected surge in SC use once the Model 3 is on the road. It is a slow process, and for some of us it is not necessarily as quick as we would like. But Tesla is always playing catch-up.

    And, my opinion is that once the popularity of the Model 3 is known, and other manufacturers decide to enter the BEV market, there will be commercial enterprises to offer DC fast charging for vacationers. And more employers and cities will feel the pressure to add public AC charging in parking lots so people can charge all day while at work. Thirty amps at 208 volts for eight hours adds about 50kWh to a battery.
     
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  20. rypalmer

    rypalmer Member

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    I drove from Toronto to PEI, 2000km almost exclusively via the Supercharger network, two weekends ago. I drove through NY, NH, and ME. I stopped to charge at 5 different Superchargers and did not see a single other car charging. Each station had 8 stalls or more. I think SC congestion concerns are overblown, with exception of SC abuse happening in urban areas. They will add more to each urban area as they roll out cars. The lead time on constructing a station can't be more than 3 months once they set their mind to it...
     
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  21. Uncle Paul

    Uncle Paul Member

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    Believe Elon has a plan for this.

    They are rolling out Urban Supercharger stations, so those with no in-garage charging options will have a place to charge up when they get low. This will take some of the traffic off the on the Highway Superchargers.

    They are opening up additional Superchargers also, for long distance travelers, in addition to adding more stalls at existing locations.

    Tesla has excellent data as to where more charging capacity is needed. They know exactly which locations are filling up, and are adding more in those areas.

    Charging a small amount for each charge will also greatly reduce the current free loaders, who only visit a Supercharger because they are free, and avoid plugging into their private charging ports when possible.

    I believe that there are lines at less than 1 tenth of one percent of all the Superchargers, but of course those rare instances get all the worry.
     

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