300,000 new model 3's will be clogging supercharging sites ?

[Tesmotorfaqcom]

I do for the fact that Tesla have to bring back free supercharging to push MS and MX sale. Will MS and MX owners ever have to pay for SC? Tesla give retro free SC to current owners this year and people still can use referral code for free SC access.

 

[FlyF4]

Your experience definitely does not mirror mine. I went cross country (San Francisco to Virginia Beach and back) and once I left California, I was the only Tesla at any of the Superchargers I used, excluding one or two in Flagstaff and Buckeye AZ, and a few in Richmond VA. Maybe one o.ther car in Albuquerque, but either way, there were definitely not "often only 1 or 2".

If you mean cross-country north-south primarily through California then yeah, I can understand the concern.

Amen to that. Recently went 5,000 cross-country return trip. Most all the time, I was the only person at superchargers

 

[FlyF4]

I used to fear this, but my fears have been alleviated by a few developments.

The massive expansion of the Supercharger network. Especially where they've expanded superchargers.
The Model 3 roll out isn't going to ramp up that quickly. Where it overtakes the Model S/X production already taking place.
Supercharging isn't free for the Model 3.
There is a fairly significant roll out of chargers that VW is doing.

I also don't think the average Model 3 owner is as road trippy as the Model S owners have been. Model S owners have more disposable income.

I also think you'll see a lot more public charging.

Sure we're going to see growing pains in spots.

Agree with all of that.... and the fact that 90% of supercharger locations have more stalls open than ones being used. Yup, there are problem spot in bigger cities, but those are the exceptions right now.

 

[FlatSix911]

Agree with all of that.... and the fact that 90% of supercharger locations have more stalls open than ones being used.
Yup, there are problem spot in bigger cities, but those are the exceptions right now.

Unfortunately, most of the urban areas in California (Bay Area and LA basin) will suffer with the oncoming Model 3 tsunami

 

[xyeahtony]

Supercharging will not be free for Model 3 users. So will we actually see that many Model 3s hogging up superchargers? I feel like most of the Cali problems is due to people getting free power because 99.9% of teslas registered in CA have free supercharging. I mean i've seen those PG&E rates.

 

[EVCarGUy]

I feel like most of the Cali problems is due to people getting free power because 99.9% of teslas registered in CA have free supercharging.

That is the issue today. But in the future, a large percentage of Model 3 buyers in those same areas won't have access to home charging (houses are freaking out of sight) and will be paying Tesla's rather reasonable (for California) $0.20/kWhr California supercharger rate.

 

[FlyF4]

Unfortunately, most of the urban areas in California (Bay Area and LA basin) will suffer with the oncoming Model 3 tsunami

Yea, you might be right about that, but I'm thinking not as bad as one might think for the reason that the model 3 isn't going to be a long range car and most of the owners will charge at home. Time will tell.

 

[gabeincal]

model 3 isn't going to be a long range car

Why?

 

[zer0cool]

Short answer, yes definitely.

Especially since M3 will be on a pay to charge model, so there's no longer the stigma of using SC for frequent charging instead of just long distance travel charging. People will treat SC like gas station, and they are right to do so if they are charged per kwh.

 

[Adm]

Everybody here seems to focus on Superchargers, but as more and more EV's come on the road with higher charging capabilities, 3rd parties will start to build "Superchargers" too. I predict the market will overshoot first too with too many fast chargers.

 

[TaoJones]

Such FUD and so unnecessary.

TLDR version: No need for concern.

The bigger problem and biggest threat to capacity management is ICEing by our own. Crank those idle fees to $1/minute after 60 minutes lifetime, and then $5/minute after 240 minutes lifetime.

Longer version (hey, you were warned):

Here's why you don't need to worry. And try not to nitpick:

300,000 Model 3s as posited by the OP
If 60% for the US market
And 40% of those in California (CA)
And they will take 2 years to produce
Then that's +72,000 cars in CA
And the other 100K spread across the other 49 states. Oh, the horror.

Solve CA and you solve the continent.
Note:
1) 70% of homes in the US have garages.
2) 12,500 L2 & L3 chargers coming to CA from the state's 2 largest utilities.
3) $1.2B coming to CA from VW. While not a dime of that money, earmarked for chargers and maint thereof in $200M chunks every 20 months, will go toward a Tesla SC, to put that $ in context, it would buy 4,000 SC sites. There are fewer than 400 in the US today. Again, that money will go toward some combination of L2 and L3 chargers, and a lot of them.

Point being that CA will easily be able to absorb 72,000 Model 3s over 2 years. Installation scale increases annually - see Cal Tech's 50 free L2s, Disneyland's 65 L2s (and counting), Tesla's 40x SC on I-5, and their urban infill.

Lastly, people in general are more lazy than they are cheap. Waking up with a full charge and not having to make time to go to an SC will be the norm - and it's a wonderful thing. The novelty of saving a few bucks instead of using one's own garage wears off quickly when there are only so many hours in the day.

For the non-garaged, and to them I say welcome, there will be numerous alternatives to paying $0.20/kW at a CA SC - which btw is NOT any better than driving a hybrid *in practical use*.

Read that last part a few times if you don't yet have an EV. The ONLY time you'll get the range often parroted about in these fora is if and when you drive from one SC to another in one shot on a highway in mild weather on a flat road. Expect a 30-40% decrease in range during a week of short hilly urban commutes with the AC on. Then do the math. $17 for 130 miles is not impressive. For those Model 3 owners who have budgets, SCs will not be their first option for long if they think they're going to save a dime compared to their Prius. Prii, even.

Yes, otherwise the car is fabulous and safe and fun to drive. But in CA as a daily urban driver, no money saved relative to hybrids by using SCs. Which addresses the minority of people who are more cheap than they are lazy.

While the OP's concern may be well-meaning, it just feeds the trolls and the shorts. I like the taste of the shorts' tears, but still.

Again, the bigger problem and biggest threat to capacity management is ICEing by our own. Crank those idle fees to $1/minute after 60 minutes lifetime, and then $5/minute after 240 minutes lifetime.

 

[FlyF4]

Why?

Why do I think M3 will not be a long range car? Good question. Allow me to restate. I would not use it as a long range car, but I don't represent the general public My MX is about right for MY long range travel with its 300 mile max whereas I typically charge after about 270 miles to have a nice margin of extra energy on cross country driving. It's about right for the amount of time I want to stop every few hours.

The M3 projected 200 mile range sure is a lot better than most competitors right now that get only about half that range and statistics of current owners of other 100 ish mile range cars indicate they are used just as commuting cars. This is where I think Tesla might just eat the lunch of other competitors. Example, pay $5K more for a BWM or a Mercedes EV with roughly half the range! If I am a buyer today, I'd choose the M3 for my local range car. And perhaps a lot of people will be willing to pay $5K more for the M3 as compared to the Nissan Leaf that barely gets half the range of the M3.

Still, I wouldn't by an M3 for long range (vacations, etc), but some buyers may be willing to spend more time at superchargers. What am I getting to here? Back to the OP point. In the urban areas, well over half the people at superchargers are not local people. They are traveling through. Most local people charge at home, especially when there is no price advantage of charging at a supercharger. 85% of all EV owners have home chargers. Fortunately, SCs are going in at a higher rate in urban and city areas. Thus, the reason why I am thinking there isn't going to be a hoard of people in line at superchargers like the gas lines of the early 70s. There are LOTS of reasons. I only scratch the surface as to why I think SC worry is overblown.

 

[FlyF4]

Lastly, people in general are more lazy than they are cheap. Waking up with a full charge and not having to make time to go to an SC will be the norm - and it's a wonderful thing. The novelty of saving a few bucks instead of using one's own garage wears off quickly when there are only so many hours in the day.

I couldn't have said it better. You hit the nail on the head. This is ONE of the biggest reasons that owners won't clog the SCs. People really are more lazy (or very busy) than they are cheap, especially if buying a relatively expensive car. And is just might be cheaper to buy your electricity at home in some cases anyway.

 

[gabeincal]

I couldn't have said it better. You hit the nail on the head. This is ONE of the biggest reasons that owners won't clog the SCs. People really are more lazy (or very busy) than they are cheap, especially if buying a relatively expensive car. And is just might be cheaper to buy your electricity at home in some cases anyway.

Totally true in most states, but probably CA is going to be hit with a LOT of people who cannot charge at home, or refuses to do so! Also, $0.2/kWh is cheaper than pg&e..

 

[FlyF4]

Totally true in most states, but probably CA is going to be hit with a LOT of people who cannot charge at home, or refuses to do so! Also, $0.2/kWh is cheaper than pg&e..

Yea, agree. But I think you are referring to NORTHERN California, not California in general. Southern Cal rates are much cheaper. And people with solar will likely prefer to charge at home.

 

[kbM3]

Why do I think M3 will not be a long range car? Good question. Allow me to restate. I would not use it as a long range car, but I don't represent the general public My MX is about right for MY long range travel with its 300 mile max whereas I typically charge after about 270 miles to have a nice margin of extra energy on cross country driving. It's about right for the amount of time I want to stop every few hours.

The M3 projected 200 mile range sure is a lot better than most competitors right now that get only about half that range and statistics of current owners of other 100 ish mile range cars indicate they are used just as commuting cars. This is where I think Tesla might just eat the lunch of other competitors. Example, pay $5K more for a BWM or a Mercedes EV with roughly half the range! If I am a buyer today, I'd choose the M3 for my local range car. And perhaps a lot of people will be willing to pay $5K more for the M3 as compared to the Nissan Leaf that barely gets half the range of the M3.

Still, I wouldn't by an M3 for long range (vacations, etc), but some buyers may be willing to spend more time at superchargers. What am I getting to here? Back to the OP point. In the urban areas, well over half the people at superchargers are not local people. They are traveling through. Most local people charge at home, especially when there is no price advantage of charging at a supercharger. 85% of all EV owners have home chargers. Fortunately, SCs are going in at a higher rate in urban and city areas. Thus, the reason why I am thinking there isn't going to be a hoard of people in line at superchargers like the gas lines of the early 70s. There are LOTS of reasons. I only scratch the surface as to why I think SC worry is overblown.

You seem to only be talking about the range of a base model three. The higher end version should have between 270 and 300 mile range.

 

[gabeincal]

Yea, agree. But I think you are referring to NORTHERN California, not California in general. Southern Cal rates are much cheaper. And people with solar will likely prefer to charge at home.

Yep, NORCal, sorry But with the current amount of SCs in and around LA, I expect havoc there also...

 

[gabeincal]

You seem to only be talking about the range of a base model three. The higher end version should have between 270 and 300 mile range.

I had 208 mi range on my 60 before I upgraded. Didn't keep me from doing long distance road trips using the SC network one bit. 270-300 helps, but even with 200 mi range, long distance is a reality, unlike with a Bolt which does not have the SC network to rely on, therefore much more of a 'local' car.

 

[FlyF4]

You seem to only be talking about the range of a base model three. The higher end version should have between 270 and 300 mile range.

Yes I was talking about the base model as that is the intro model and the only thing available for quite a while. In working with various folks, I haven't heard anything about a "higher end" version, but in all fairness, I don't ask those questions. I probably wouldn't get an answer anyway. As we all know, technology always gets better and range of EVs increase, but at the moment, all I know about is a max of 235 being possible, not 270-300. That would indeed be a great car for longer range.

 

[FlyF4]

I had 208 mi range on my 60 before I upgraded. Didn't keep me from doing long distance road trips using the SC network one bit. 270-300 helps, but even with 200 mi range, long distance is a reality, unlike with a Bolt which does not have the SC network to rely on, therefore much more of a 'local' car.

You got me thinking...... yea, a 200 mile range M3 is something I would use for trips like Sparks to Fremont as I would only have to charge once (probably at the Rockland SC) on the way down. But most of my long range trips are hundreds of miles or even 1,000 miles. Stopping that often to charge would take too much time and on most of my routes there isn't close enough spacing of superchargers to allow me to take the route (at least not yet). Fortunately SC spacing is getting much better at a faster rate. That's why I currently like my MX with the longer range so I can stop where I want to charge, not where I must charge.