315 Mile Model Y...new battery pack with more kWh?

[ratsbew]

We all know by now that the production AWD Model Y will have a rated range of 315 miles from the prototype's 280 miles. I don't believe there is any way that this is possible unless the Model Y has a new battery pack with greater capacity. I just don't think it's possible for the Y's aerodynamics or motor efficiency to be so greatly improved over the 3 for it to only lose 7 miles vs the 3 AWD's 322 miles.

My guess is that Tesla has gone away from the 3's four modules and filled the excess space with more cells which has gained around 5kWh of usable capacity. I think this new pack will be used in the Model 3 starting in Q2 2020 which will boost the AWD Model 3's range to about 350 miles rated range.

Thoughts and opinions?

 

[ratsbew]

I also believe that the Y's $4,000 premium over the Model 3 along with anticipated manufacturing improvements to reduce costs means that the Y will actually be cheaper to produce than the 3 excluding the battery. It's totally possible that they put an extra $500 worth of cells in the pack and still have a more profitable vehicle.

 

[ewoodrick]

Or maybe slightly improved batteries?

 

[Zoomit]

Paging @GigaGrunt

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

We all know by now that the production AWD Model Y will have a rated range of 315 miles from the prototype's 280 miles. I don't believe there is any way that this is possible unless the Model Y has a new battery pack with greater capacity. I just don't think it's possible for the Y's aerodynamics or motor efficiency to be so greatly improved over the 3 for it to only lose 7 miles vs the 3 AWD's 322 miles.

My guess is that Tesla has gone away from the 3's four modules and filled the excess space with more cells which has gained around 5kWh of usable capacity. I think this new pack will be used in the Model 3 starting in Q2 2020 which will boost the AWD Model 3's range to about 350 miles rated range.

Thoughts and opinions?

First, remember the rating is the composite of 55% city and 45% "highway." (Max speed on highway is about 60mph, average speed is 48mph.) So the city rating has a huge impact, and on that front, Model Y is fairly decent. So a 7 mile impact on range suggests more like a ~15 mile impact on highway range (just roughly speaking). But that does not explain it all - more info here:

Model y battery upgrade?

Model Y More Efficient Than Model 3?!

That is my take on it. It's the magic of the 0.756 scalar vs. the 0.7032 scalar. I'm currently trying to learn the technical details of how this scalar is determined, and whether it is justified, but it appears that they do some 5-cycle testing and then based on the results can use a vehicle specific scalar based on that 5-cycle to scale the 2-cycle results.

But I would just pay attention to the raw numbers in this post. The HWFET result must be 15% worse than the Model 3. This is just based on the information contained in the EPA datafile, from which you can back-calculate approximate battery capacities.

So far, looks to me like a 77.6-79.6kWh battery, exactly the same size as the Model 3 pack.

My opinion is that as far as range is concerned, it is best to look at the raw results of the tests relative to one another as the best predictor of range. Not in actual numerical terms (real world city range will likely be much lower than 447 miles, for example!), but just as a relative indicator. That gets away from this scalar fitting insanity. In that framework, we're looking at 454 miles for Model 3, and 386 miles for Model Y - a 15% difference.

 

[GigaGrunt]

Wow...where do I start....

It’s the same modules and pack as Model 3. There is no extra space in a LR pack. Increased range came from improved efficiencies within inverter/drive unit software. Remember that the original Model Y range was quoted prior to Tesla upgrading the Model 3 range...

2016 Tesla: Over promise and hope to deliver...
2020 Tesla: under promise and back up a truck load of over delivery...


Careful out there kids, trolls be everywhere...

 

[reardencode]

Also higher range from heat pump and dropping 12v battery

 

[reardencode]

@GigaGrunt why the disagree? Because those are rumors not fully confirmed yet?

Mmm, nvm me.

 

[Zoomit]

@GigaGrunt why the disagree? Because those are rumors not fully confirmed yet?

He’s an engineer at Giga Nevada. He just confirmed that those rumors are false.

(Don’t feel bad, he seems to get this kind of feedback in every thread in which he posts. If folks are feeling spicy, they won’t believe him until they search his post history.)

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Good to get the confirmation from @GigaGrunt.

We have multiple sources of this info now. The size of the pack can easily, with high likelihood, be determined from the AC recharge data which can be calculated directly from the EPA data file. You do have to assume the charging efficiency is 88.4% just like for Model 3 but that seems reasonable. Of course, shortly, we will see the full applications from Tesla and that will give us all the exact numbers.

@reardencode - Heat pump would have no impact on measured results, even if using 5-cycle testing - the 5-cycle testing only engages A/C in the hot test and never turns on cabin heat in the cold temp test (there is no reason to, since that would have no significant impact on results in an ICE vehicle).

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

In that framework, we're looking at 454 miles for Model 3, and 386 miles for Model Y - a 15% difference.

I should add that the actual difference may be a bit smaller than this - really best to look at the actual unscaled efficiencies (from EPA datafile) rather than the ranges, since test vehicles can differ from one another by 1-2kWh in capacity.

By that metric it’s apparent Model Y will be about 11-12% less efficient than Model 3 on the highway.

 

[GigaGrunt]

@GigaGrunt why the disagree? Because those are rumors not fully confirmed yet?

Mmm, nvm me.

Entertain me, tell me about the heat pump and the 12V battery being removed...when I think heat pump, I assume you're referring to the super bottle, which is on the Model 3 as well. As far as the 12V being removed, thats an entire restructure of the entire electrical system, wiring and all. Need redundancy, etc. Not saying it will never happen...

 

[iustin]

By that metric it’s apparent Model Y will be about 11-12% less efficient than Model 3 on the highway.

For people new here (and not familiar with the 3), how much highway-only range would then the Y have? I have to admit the official range was exciting to me, as I wrongly assumed (like for ICE) highway is more efficient. Thanks!

 

[reardencode]

Entertain me, tell me about the heat pump and the 12V battery being removed...when I think heat pump, I assume you're referring to the super bottle, which is on the Model 3 as well. As far as the 12V being removed, thats an entire restructure of the entire electrical system, wiring and all. Need redundancy, etc. Not saying it will never happen...

I've recently learned that cabin heat is never active in EPA test cycles, so heat pump instead of PTC heat wouldn't help tested range, but might help real world range in cold.

12v battery removal would go along with the patented drastic reduction in wiring that has been rumored to be in Model Y (higher accessory voltage allowing printed traces to carry sufficient current), sounds like it's not in yet.

 

[ratsbew]

when I think heat pump, I assume you're referring to the super bottle

Nope, a refrigeration cycle heater for the cabin, not a heat exchanger that cools coolant for battery cooling.

 

[Big Earl]

Entertain me, tell me about the heat pump and the 12V battery being removed...when I think heat pump, I assume you're referring to the super bottle, which is on the Model 3 as well. As far as the 12V being removed, thats an entire restructure of the entire electrical system, wiring and all. Need redundancy, etc. Not saying it will never happen...

Heat pump being reverse cycle air conditioning, which is significantly more efficient at producing heat than resistive heating.

The rumor is that Tesla ditched the conventional PTC cabin heater in favor of a more complex reverse cycle heat pump system that can harvest energy from the outside air as well as from the battery pack (after supercharging) and the drive units (in situations where it’s too cold outside to provide effective heating with the compressor; think battery heating mode in Model 3).

 

[bhtooefr]

@reardencode - Heat pump would have no impact on measured results, even if using 5-cycle testing - the 5-cycle testing only engages A/C in the hot test and never turns on cabin heat in the cold temp test (there is no reason to, since that would have no significant impact on results in an ICE vehicle).

40 CFR § 1066.710 - Cold temperature testing procedures for measuring CO and NMHC emissions and determining fuel economy.

The heater is used at 72 °F on front window defrost, in vehicles with automatic climate control, when on the Cold FTP test cycle, at least on ICEs.

Note that in most ICE vehicles, the heater core is on a part of the coolant loop that isn't blocked by the thermostat when the engine is cold, so there is a potential emissions impact (slower warmup). Additionally, on some ICE vehicle designs, there's supplementary heaters used in those conditions that increase load - a kilowatt or so of PTC electric heat is common on higher efficiency vehicles, and I've even heard of diesel-fired supplementary heaters on one diesel ICE vehicle sold in the US market - the consumption from those devices would affect things as well.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

40 CFR § 1066.710 - Cold temperature testing procedures for measuring CO and NMHC emissions and determining fuel economy.

The heater is used at 72 °F on front window defrost, in vehicles with automatic climate control, when on the Cold FTP test cycle, at least on ICEs.

Note that in most ICE vehicles, the heater core is on a part of the coolant loop that isn't blocked by the thermostat when the engine is cold, so there is a potential emissions impact (slower warmup). Additionally, on some ICE vehicle designs, there's supplementary heaters used in those conditions that increase load - a kilowatt or so of PTC electric heat is common on higher efficiency vehicles, and I've even heard of diesel-fired supplementary heaters on one diesel ICE vehicle sold in the US market - the consumption from those devices would affect things as well.

Agreed, the following is misinformation:

"Heat pump would have no impact on measured results, even if using 5-cycle testing - the 5-cycle testing only engages A/C in the hot test and never turns on cabin heat in the cold temp test (there is no reason to, since that would have no significant impact on results in an ICE vehicle)."


Thanks for the info. This has been pretty confusing for me to track down - I was reading a publication from the EPA (but I guess it was quite dated) indicating that it wasn't needed. Thank you for your link.

But this makes a lot more sense...looking at some cold weather test data from Teslas and it does look like it significantly impacts the efficiency...which is great as at least it means 5-cycle testing might actually have some significant impact on the results...

Here is the erroneous table I was looking at in an old document:

But doing a search for "heater" in that document...

I've recently learned that cabin heat is never active in EPA test cycles, so heat pump instead of PTC heat wouldn't help tested range, but might help real world range in cold.

Sorry for misinforming you. As you can see above, I was going off this table, which is apparently dated...

I guess it remains to be seen whether the Model Y has a heat pump? I'm having a hard time understanding how that scalar of 0.756 could have gotten so large without one, but who knows. I'm stumbling around like a blind man on this stuff, gradually learning my way as I go.

Sadly, even the "Test Details" tab in this EPA link is ambiguous/does not speak about heat - but I will trust the link provided above in @bhtooefr's post.

Detailed Test Information

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

For people new here (and not familiar with the 3), how much highway-only range would then the Y have? I have to admit the official range was exciting to me, as I wrongly assumed (like for ICE) highway is more efficient. Thanks!

I'd expect it would be pretty similar to the Performance Model 3 with 20" wheels; will be slightly worse.

So, for a drive where the 2020 Performance Model 3 with 18" wheels gets 285 miles (fairly typical best case on flat terrain, for fairly fast driving for that model (70-80mph)...

For that drive, I would expect the Model Y to get about 240 miles from 100% to 0%. While Model 3 P 20" would get about 250 miles.

For more typical 90% to 10% discharge, you're looking at about 190 miles between charging stops with Model Y on the freeway (you'd get about 220-230 miles from a Model 3 with 18").


Obviously this is for the 315 mile version, not the 280 mile version of the Model Y! I'd expect the 280-mile version to be about 10% worse than the above.

 

[Big Earl]

For more typical 90% to 10% discharge, you're looking at about 190 miles between charging stops with Model Y on the freeway (you'd get about 220-230 miles from a Model 3 with 18").

I hope 90% - 10% isn’t the typical charging strategy beyond the initial leg of a road trip, as charging to 90% is very slow. I run 10% - 60% or less whenever possible, giving me a leg distance of 110 - 140 miles depending on weather.