I am in WI so somewhat comparable to the OP's climate.
In fair weather my S mights see 270wh/m but get to winter and kf I don't preheat my 7 mile drive to work my 5 mile average might be 730wh/m but generally my 30mile average in January with be 520-530ah/m
Short trips and resulting frequently reheating the cabin cause day to day efficiency to crater but I think discussing this as "range" does not lead to thorough understanding of what the car is still capable of.
I just said in winter my average can be 520wh/m but with the rated wh/m being like 290 my 6yo 100k mile car charges to 242miles at 100%, yet I have no trouble driving from Appleton to Eau Claire a 180 mile leg, and I have done it in single digit temps. Once the cabin is warm consumption drops dramatically, still higher than summer but far less than your daily commute would lead you to believe. Without doing the math the January daily commute wh/m probably suggests I jave a winter range of 140miles, yet I have no problem with a 180mile leg.
If nervous about longer trips use the nav even if you know where you are going, the car will do a decent job of calculating things and usually on long trips in winter If the nav calculates I will get to the supercharger with say 15% initially as the drive progresses that number will climb because heat use goes down as the interior heats thru.