35K-50K price point? Leasing or Buying? And 1st day announcement # orders discussion

[viperboy]

You are dreaming if you think it will be 6 months.

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I doubt they will have a 500 horsepower Model 3.

I'll disagree with the 6 month comment. Model S (first car off their current line) went from sig 500 to production 6600 in 6 months (sept 12 - march 13). Thinking they can ramp up 50% faster for their 3rd model doenst seem unlikely to me.

500hp I'm not sure about. I would guess closer to 400, but thats a WAG.

 

[MassModel3]

I think they need to have a higher down payment to have a more accurate estimate of how many cars are in demand. $2000 seems like too little. Almost anyone searching for a $35-50k car can sink 2 grand in the hopes of getting a low reservation #, but I would bet your cancellations would be a lot higher when their wallet contents don't meet what their eyes see when the design studio opens. You add in AWD, bigger battery pack, tech package, you're up to $45k or whatever and now you've priced out thousands of people.

Yes, a higher deposit will more accurately predict serious buyers, but right now the Model S is a $2.5K deposit. There is absolutely no way Tesla will ask for more than that for a Model 3. Keep in mind that this is the car for the masses. They aren't going to scare anybody away with outrageous reservation costs, knowing that it's out-of-pocket money for the buyers. Easy money up front followed by bank loans later (for most). Banks, in turn, will require more down payment from most, but that's between the buyer and the bank. I don't see Tesla worrying about, or getting involved in, any of that.

Keeping reservation deposits low will make it more reachable for buyers, and holding a reservation will build excitement as deliveries get closer. Yes, there will be some cancellations, but the excitement will encourage potential buyers to find a way to make it work.

 

[david_42]

We will buy, but not for a couple more years. The car will be my wife's commuter and the purchase is predicated on her completing her CPA exams and internship. That's at least 18 months. It rarely snows around Portland, OR, so we have zip need for AWD. Commuter, so with the base battery with a 200 mile range, we are looking at weekly charging; although I suspect we'll plug it in most evenings.

If it does come in a "crossover", we'd spring for it. We currently have a Kia Spectra5 and have gotten use to the extra space.

 

[dgpcolorado]

I'd assume in cold weather the winter package will be far superior than a battery addon for range...

I suppose it depends on what is included in the cold weather package and how it is used. The one thing I would want most is a heated steering wheel and last I heard Tesla doesn't offer that. In my LEAF I rarely use heated seats because I dress warmly in winter but I use the heated steering wheel frequently and almost never bother with cabin heat, save for preheating while plugged-in.

I'm something of an edge case because my cars are garaged and the garage never gets below 0ºC. So no ice/snow on the car in the morning and not particularly cold in the interior when starting out (0ºC is not my idea of "cold"). For someone who parks outside in -30ºC temperatures the calculations might well be very different. For me, a longer range battery would have considerably more utility than the cold weather package. YMMV.

 

[vinnie97]

The higher the reserve payment, the more a lease will sting. I, too, have never bothered with leasing before, but this seems like a special case with the kind of aforementioned rapid development that has been witnessed in the Model S over a 3-year period.

 

[doubeld]

... but right now the Model S is a $2.5K deposit. There is absolutely no way Tesla will ask for more than that for a Model 3. Keeping reservation deposits low will make it more reachable for buyers, and holding a reservation will build excitement as deliveries get closer. Yes, there will be some cancellations, but the excitement will encourage potential buyers to find a way to make it work.

Oh you're right. I assumed Model S was $5k as well, but that's just the X. In that case, you're probably right. $2k might be all they will require in which case, the reservations numbers will be high! I figured investing in TSLA is a wiser investment until the car is actually released, but 2k is not too big a hit.

As for the winter package, you bet! I would rather have heated seats than cabin heated air. Auto-defrosting mirrors and heated seats are a necessity ever since I purchased my 2008 Lancer that came with these features. I think the 2016 Volt comes with the winter package in Canada by default, hence the higher price tag.

 

[S'toon]

I suppose it depends on what is included in the cold weather package and how it is used. The one thing I would want most is a heated steering wheel and last I heard Tesla doesn't offer that. In my LEAF I rarely use heated seats because I dress warmly in winter but I use the heated steering wheel frequently and almost never bother with cabin heat, save for preheating while plugged-in.

I'm something of an edge case because my cars are garaged and the garage never gets below 0ºC. So no ice/snow on the car in the morning and not particularly cold in the interior when starting out (0ºC is not my idea of "cold"). For someone who parks outside in -30ºC temperatures the calculations might well be very different. For me, a longer range battery would have considerably more utility than the cold weather package. YMMV.

It didn't used to have a heated steering wheel. It has now for some time.

Subzero Weather Package

Improve cold-weather comfort and convenience by adding:
3 zone rear seat heaters
Wiper blade defrosters
Washer nozzle heaters
Heated steering wheel
$1,000

Recommended for climates where temperatures
regularly fall well below freezing

 

[dgpcolorado]

It didn't used to have a heated steering wheel. It has now for some time.

Terrific!

 

[Rebel44]

I plan following, but exchange rate and price of options will have impact:

1. AWD, tech package and biggest available battery

2. Buy it* and keep it for 10+ years

3. I plan to wait 6-12 months after start of availability

*depending on price, might wait for either CPO, or buy demo car

 

[Lobstahz]

500hp I'm not sure about. I would guess closer to 400, but thats a WAG.

The front motor on the P85D after the ludicrous speed upgrade is now 259hp (up from 221hp). 2x of those and you're at 512hp. It's a common practice in the automotive world to take parts from existing models and use them in multiple cars. I would imagine Tesla would do the same thing for the Model 3.

If Tesla wants to go toe to toe with the BMW M3 and Audi RS4, a 500hp performance variant would be a reasonable move. Hitting that 500 marker has a physiological effect that "480" doesn't, I can Tesla clearing that just for the bragging rights

 

[BrianC]

The front motor on the P85D after the ludicrous speed upgrade is now 259hp (up from 221hp). 2x of those and you're at 512hp. It's a common practice in the automotive world to take parts from existing models and use them in multiple cars. I would imagine Tesla would do the same thing for the Model 3.

If Tesla wants to go toe to toe with the BMW M3 and Audi RS4, a 500hp performance variant would be a reasonable move. Hitting that 500 marker has a physiological effect that "480" doesn't, I can Tesla clearing that just for the bragging rights

More likely they would use the motors in the 70D if they are going to do that and it will be 328hp for the high end.

I think everyone really needs to pump the brakes on the options they think they are getting with the car. I HIGHLY doubt they will offer supercharging for life with a mass produced car if they are having people "abuse" the system with 40kish on the roads (in the states).

 

[Model 3]

More likely they would use the motors in the 70D if they are going to do that and it will be 328hp for the high end.

Witch is, I believe, the same motor as in the P85/90D - with or without ludicrous mode. The difference is - still as I believe - just in the inverter/software. And this shows us that they have a motor capable to deliver whatever horsepower/performance they want in the car. Personally I think 500+ HP is to much in this car, but then again, I think 700HP it to much in a TMS

 

[FrankOT564]

More likely they would use the motors in the 70D if they are going to do that and it will be 328hp for the high end.

I think everyone really needs to pump the brakes on the options they think they are getting with the car. I HIGHLY doubt they will offer supercharging for life with a mass produced car if they are having people "abuse" the system with 40kish on the roads (in the states).

I am 100% certain Tesla will create a system by then so you won't be able to abuse the system. I think the best way is to charge the abusers. I don't think it is ever a good idea to deny someone a charge, especially in emergency situations.

 

[Vitold]

The front motor on the P85D after the ludicrous speed upgrade is now 259hp (up from 221hp). 2x of those and you're at 512hp. It's a common practice in the automotive world to take parts from existing models and use them in multiple cars. I would imagine Tesla would do the same thing for the Model 3.

If Tesla wants to go toe to toe with the BMW M3 and Audi RS4, a 500hp performance variant would be a reasonable move. Hitting that 500 marker has a physiological effect that "480" doesn't, I can Tesla clearing that just for the bragging rights

It's doubtfull that Model 3 will share motors with S/X for number of reasons:

1. Model 3 motor needs to be produced in higher quantities. If you have to tweak manufacturing process it's also the right time to make improvements to the motor itself.

2. Model S motor mounts maybe to wide for Model 3 skateboard

3. For single motor variant Tesla will try to create new motor that is more efficient at low and high speeds.

4. Weight reductions

 

[MassModel3]

Elon already said that the Model 3 motors will come from preexisting Model S designs, but there's no way to know which motors will be available for which Model 3 configurations. I agree that only the smaller Model S front motors will likely be used in the 3, but the question is which ones, and will there be more powerful front motors available to choose from for higher-end Model 3 designs.

For the base Model 3, I think only the lowest end of the front motors will be used, but...

The ability to provide "Ludicrous" acceleration was the result of Tesla attempting to design an million mile motor. If these experiments result in newer and more power front motors (duh!), we should definitely have some amazing acceleration options when the 3 is released (or shortly thereafter).

 

[igotzzoom]

The front motor on the P85D after the ludicrous speed upgrade is now 259hp (up from 221hp). It's a common practice in the automotive world to take parts from existing models and use them in multiple cars. I would imagine Tesla would do the same thing for the Model 3.

I'd be perfectly happy with the base Model 3 having 259 hp. That should provide a nice balance between performance and range.

 

[MiamiNole]

I've been lurking for a while, but this thread finally convinced me to go ahead and make an account!

1. Loosely assuming the available options will be similar to the Model S, and the same standard features will be available (give or take SC), I would be set on getting leather seats, the sound package, glass panoramic roof, and the SC (if it is indeed made an option). I'd consider getting the Autopilot option if the SC is standard, but that's purely the engineer in me wanting to show off. It'd just be a commuter car for us since my wife has the SUV for road trips, so no need for an extended range battery. I'd be fine with RWD as well. So I guess I'd be looking at hitting the mid $40Ks for this.

2. Definitely buying this. Had a 2000 Galant that I kept until it was 10 years old, and currently have a 2010 Altima that is paid off that I plan on keeping until the Model 3 drops. I plan on keeping the Model 3 for just as long. If the Model 3 ends up becoming obsolete quickly enough to make me want to upgrade, then I will just sell it and upgrade and eat the depreciation. But I'll hedge against that, as I'm fairly conservative when it comes to car features. The current model S and its options offer more than enough features that I'd want out of a car.

3. I plan on reserving it as quickly as my internet connection will allow me. It's not a matter of if, but when I get this car. I'll be in the market for a new house by then, so I'd prefer to have the house before I actually get the car. So I don't necessarily need to get the car at first delivery.

 

[wallet.dat]

I'd be perfectly happy with the base Model 3 having 259 hp. That should provide a nice balance between performance and range.

This thing is supposed to compete with the BMW 3 series. The M3/M4 has already proven to be able to run 11.6 in the 1/4, and you're not going to be doing that with a 259hp motor.

 

[gregincal]

This thing is supposed to compete with the BMW 3 series. The M3/M4 has already proven to be able to run 11.6 in the 1/4, and you're not going to be doing that with a 259hp motor.

Did you miss the part about "base model"? The base model 3 series certainly isn't able to do that. The US base model has a 180 hp engine, and I believe they have an even lower powered european base model.

 

[wallet.dat]

Did you miss the part about "base model"? The base model 3 series certainly isn't able to do that. The US base model has a 180 hp engine, and I believe they have an even lower powered european base model.

Ah, indeed I did. Slightly off topic, but I'm actually hoping the Model 3 employs the Model S's front motor since I've read that it's a fair bit more efficient than the older rear motor design.