35K-50K price point? Leasing or Buying? And 1st day announcement # orders discussion

[MassModel3]

The Model S with a 85kwh battery can bareley do 200 miles at a reasonable speed. What makes you think that a Model 3 can do it with 50kwh? Remember Musk is talking about real world range. Not crappy EPA range.

I have to disagree. I charge my 60 to the recommended 90% and it tells me that I should be able to get 180 miles with that. Funny thing is -- it's pretty darned accurate as long as I drive under 70MPH and don't do too many battery burning crazy accelerations. If I keep it below 65 and drive sane, I can typically get around 190 miles on my 90% charge. So unless by "reasonable speed" you mean in the 70 to 80 range, that's not really an accurate statement.

However, if I do run in the mid 70's with the rest of the crazy Massachusetts drivers, I burn about 25 to 28 Kwh of charge with my 75 mile round trip to/from work, dropping that 190 down to about 170 or less. Wind resistance is a bear.

The problem is that when talking about "real world range", some people think that means speed limit +5, some think it means speed limit +15. It all depends on your driving and a 10 MPH change in the wind resistance at higher speeds is huge on the battery.

But insurance on a Tesla is bad enough without any premium raising speeding tickets, so driving a high performance electric (sports car) sedan has actually improved my driving. I'm sure I'm not alone in that.

 

[Candleflame]

I'm not dissing the american speedlimits, but if you'd drive 70mph in europe you will be holding traffic up. Even in the UK which has like the lowest speedlimit (apart from norway??) most people drive around 80mph. In some countries here you can drive up to 93mph without getting a fine/points on the motorway.

I think generally most countries here have a speedlimit of around 130kmh (80mph), but people naturally will drive slightly above that to perhaps 85 to 90mph.

You simply can't drive a 50kwh battery here. You'd have a range charge of 110 miles...

 

[JRP3]

You simply can't drive a 50kwh battery here.

I would think all the people there driving EV's with smaller packs than that might disagree.

 

[wdolson]

I'm not dissing the american speedlimits, but if you'd drive 70mph in europe you will be holding traffic up. Even in the UK which has like the lowest speedlimit (apart from norway??) most people drive around 80mph. In some countries here you can drive up to 93mph without getting a fine/points on the motorway.

I think generally most countries here have a speedlimit of around 130kmh (80mph), but people naturally will drive slightly above that to perhaps 85 to 90mph.

You simply can't drive a 50kwh battery here. You'd have a range charge of 110 miles...

Most Americans drive about 10mph over the speed limits too. In between cities the interstate speed limits are usually between 65 and 80 mph depending on the state and the particular highway, some are straighter and/or in better condition than others. Truck speed limits are often lower than car speed limits which can lead to some problems when traffic is a bit heavy, but not stop and go.

 

[rv1458]

Don't leave us hangin'...

Share your thoughts.

I don't have any grand thoughts here other than that EM has said that the M3 will have a range of at least 200 miles. I think that's EPA, not real world. I've read an article that made an argument for a 44kwh battery being able to achieve that in the M3. I think that's optimistic but 50khw seems reasonable with improved battery technology (lower battery weight) due to GF. The point though is really more about the minimum range being 200 miles on the base model. I think there will probably be two steps up from that, like the MS originally had. There will be plenty of demand for all three (unlike the sub 200 mile MS).

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I compared sedan to sedan as that's what customers will most likely be comparing. Even if it has a hatch, they won't be viewing the Model 3 as a hatchback and comparing it to a BMW coupe, and the press likely won't be comparing them that way, either. With the destination/handling charge - it's included in MSRP on BMW's site and so I included it. BMW's web site gave me a starting point of $33,150 for the 3 Series. I chose the highest-priced 3 Series I could, the 335i xDrive Gran Turismo, and I tried my best to add everything I could and I ended up at $62,145, including destination/handling. A separate M3 didn't seem to be listed on the 3-series page so perhaps I missed an even more expensive version.

Actually, the BMW M3 with all the boxes is ticked is north of $90k. The base 3 series starts at about $35k. The base 3 series will have a few advantages on a base Model 3, but the Model 3 will have much lower energy costs, if the base Model 3 plus a few options is $10k more than a BMW 3 series, I would consider it competitively priced and there will be plenty of demand. If a fully loaded Model 3 can come it at $80k it will be very cost competitive to the BMW M3 imo.

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Even though the S/X was released with high-end signature models first, I think Tesla would be wrong to only ship the high-end signature model 3s in "Late 2017". This completely goes against their mantra. Remember, the Roadster, S and X were made solely to FUND the 3 - getting high value cars out first meant more than shipping out numbers. Remember what EM said about preferring quality (more expensive) cars to hitting deadlines. By the time the 3 is released, the GF1 will have been manufactured, the Fremont plant will have been upgraded/retooled and the R&D and capital costs will have dropped off significantly. There is no reason to only ship the $60k+ models first. By this point investors will want to see NUMBERS of deliveries. Those that can afford a $60k+ Signature 3 do NOT need the tax credit (though it helps). Those that have been waiting years (those who can only ogle the S/X, and have been for over 3 years now, and will be 6-7 years by the time the first $35k car actually hits the road) for a $35,000 electric car NEED the tax credit, not those that can already afford an S/X.

With that said, that's my guess, and my wish, as I will also be one those people hitting F5 on a particular website 10 times per minute on March 31st, 2016.

I do agree that they will have the M3 base model available for reservation at launch, or very soon thereafter (unlike the MX), but if they ship any cars at all in late 2017 I'll be surprised. If they do, business sense says they ship the expensive ones first. That capitalizes the R&D faster and allows for other costs to come down so that when low cost cars ship there's a better (or any) profit margin. Plus it makes sense, given the fact that the tax credit is expiring. At that point Tesla needs to be making the M3 with the idea that it's profitable without the tax credit. The tax credit basically adds to Tesla's bottom line (hopefully in the black) so they ship Signature models with a couple extra features that just so happen to cost $7,500. When the tax credit expires, no more signature model, but everybody's happy and no one is mad that they got gipped. That's kind of simplistic, but hopefully you get the idea.

 

[Lonnie123]

I do agree that they will have the M3 base model available for reservation at launch, or very soon thereafter (unlike the MX), but if they ship any cars at all in late 2017 I'll be surprised. If they do, business sense says they ship the expensive ones first. That capitalizes the R&D faster and allows for other costs to come down so that when low cost cars ship there's a better (or any) profit margin. Plus it makes sense, given the fact that the tax credit is expiring. At that point Tesla needs to be making the M3 with the idea that it's profitable without the tax credit. The tax credit basically adds to Tesla's bottom line (hopefully in the black) so they ship Signature models with a couple extra features that just so happen to cost $7,500. When the tax credit expires, no more signature model, but everybody's happy and no one is mad that they got gipped. That's kind of simplistic, but hopefully you get the idea.

I have no doubt they will ship Sigs first... Its just good business sense. More cars on the road = more risk = need more money on hand. Selling cars with higher gross profits, if they can, is the worlds biggest no brainer.

The whole "defeats the purpose of Teslas mission statement" point is a non-starter in my opinion. If we reflect back 20 years from now (assuming Tesla succeeds in bringing about the EV revolution), whether they were fully producing cars for $35k in November 2017 or June 2018 is essentially the same in the grand scheme of things, it literally makes no difference except for headlines writers to make it sound like Tesla missed the mark if its 3-6 months late.

Not only that, but Tesla as a business has to survive... and they wont survive if they dont have money. If they have the option to sell cars with $15,000 in profit versus $5,000 in profit... Well, I dont think I need to spell that out for anyone.

 

[ProphetM]

I do agree that they will have the M3 base model available for reservation at launch, or very soon thereafter (unlike the MX), but if they ship any cars at all in late 2017 I'll be surprised. If they do, business sense says they ship the expensive ones first. That capitalizes the R&D faster and allows for other costs to come down so that when low cost cars ship there's a better (or any) profit margin. Plus it makes sense, given the fact that the tax credit is expiring. At that point Tesla needs to be making the M3 with the idea that it's profitable without the tax credit. The tax credit basically adds to Tesla's bottom line (hopefully in the black) so they ship Signature models with a couple extra features that just so happen to cost $7,500. When the tax credit expires, no more signature model, but everybody's happy and no one is mad that they got gipped.

... except for all those people who were waiting in line to get a cheaper one, watching the later but more expensive reservations go in front of them. Then when they finally get their chance they can no longer afford to buy one because the tax credits were all sucked up by the wealthy people who could have bought one even without a credit. I hope I'm just misunderstanding what you meant, as that would not make everyone happy; it would make a whole lot of people very mad.

I think they will be filling reservations more or less in order, with allowances for how things need to be arranged in the actual production line. By which I mean if they could put any combination of options anywhere in the line and maintain their schedule, I think they would. I assume that kind of direct in-line reservation production is not entirely feasible. For it to come out that a lot of reservation holders are being put off for long periods of time just because they didn't choose enough options would be very bad PR, in my opinion. This would be with the caveat that Sigs are made before regular production. If they make a Sig edition, and I don't think it's a given that they will.

Another thing that occurred to me is how their reservations will be affected when the credit goes away. If they still have initial pre-launch reservations in the pipeline when the credits run out, that could also make for some mighty pissed-off people. If the pre-launch is that massive, they might do well to close reservations once they hit the 200k mark to avoid widespread disappointment and a potential PR nightmare.

 

[Lonnie123]

... except for all those people who were waiting in line to get a cheaper one, watching the later but more expensive reservations go in front of them. Then when they finally get their chance they can no longer afford to buy one because the tax credits were all sucked up by the wealthy people who could have bought one even without a credit. I hope I'm just misunderstanding what you meant, as that would not make everyone happy; it would make a whole lot of people very mad.

I think they will be filling reservations more or less in order, with allowances for how things need to be arranged in the actual production line. By which I mean if they could put any combination of options anywhere in the line and maintain their schedule, I think they would. I assume that kind of direct in-line reservation production is not entirely feasible. For it to come out that a lot of reservation holders are being put off for long periods of time just because they didn't choose enough options would be very bad PR, in my opinion. This would be with the caveat that Sigs are made before regular production. If they make a Sig edition, and I don't think it's a given that they will.

Another thing that occurred to me is how their reservations will be affected when the credit goes away. If they still have initial pre-launch reservations in the pipeline when the credits run out, that could also make for some mighty pissed-off people. If the pre-launch is that massive, they might do well to close reservations once they hit the 200k mark to avoid widespread disappointment and a potential PR nightmare.

I think everyone needs to prepare for the possibility that there are no credits left by the time 3 hits mass production. Factor in a few months delay and a slow-ish ramp up to full production and the credits are going to be gone very soon after the release. Basically, dont COUNT on the credit, but be glad if you are able to get it.

But after the Sigs I dont think they are going to put preference on more optioned Model 3's so I dont think that will be an issue

 

[wdolson]

The tax credits don't go away like a light switch at car 200K, there is some complex formula, but they last for some time period after car #200K is sold ( a couple of months I think), then the following year they are halved, and then finally end. I forget the exact details, but it's something like that.

As far as "rich people" sucking up all the $7500 credits, that isn't necessarily true. A survey of Model S owners found around half were upsold from cars costing $50,000 or less. For quite a few Model S owners, the purchase is an extreme stretch of their resources. I'm saving for one and what I'm driving now is a 23 year old car I bought new for $22,000. I have about a year of saving ahead of me if something doesn't come along to help out in the meantime. My SO is talking about accelerating the sale of some property she's been thinking of selling to help me out, but it may or may not happen in the next year.

 

[Lonnie123]

The tax credits don't go away like a light switch at car 200K, there is some complex formula, but they last for some time period after car #200K is sold ( a couple of months I think), then the following year they are halved, and then finally end. I forget the exact details, but it's something like that.

As far as "rich people" sucking up all the $7500 credits, that isn't necessarily true. A survey of Model S owners found around half were upsold from cars costing $50,000 or less. For quite a few Model S owners, the purchase is an extreme stretch of their resources. I'm saving for one and what I'm driving now is a 23 year old car I bought new for $22,000. I have about a year of saving ahead of me if something doesn't come along to help out in the meantime. My SO is talking about accelerating the sale of some property she's been thinking of selling to help me out, but it may or may not happen in the next year.

It is an easy formula, but it is a little odd the way they measure it

The full rebate is available for the remainder of, and one more subsequent, calendar quarter after the 200,000th car is sold. So possibly 6 months if its sold on the first day of a quarter (Jan 1, April 1, July 1st, Oct 1st)

Then its 6 months at 50% rebate

Then its 6 months at 25% rebate

source: https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/images/tax/phaseoutdiagramPlugin.gif

So there is the possibility for 6 months of full rebates after #200,000 gets registered (but in reality will not be a full 6 months. Somewhere between 3-6), but there WILL be a full 6 months of $3,750 and then another 6 months of $1,875.

In addition you might still get your State rebate if those are around as well. In Cali even getting the car in the 2nd phase out period will yield a $6,250 rebate in total if that fund is not exhausted by then

 

[Zwalderon]

I'll preorder as soon as I can. Don't want to wait too long. I'm afraid I'll never get a decent price for my current ICE.

 

[TNEVol]

I'm not dissing the american speedlimits, but if you'd drive 70mph in europe you will be holding traffic up. Even in the UK which has like the lowest speedlimit (apart from norway??) most people drive around 80mph. In some countries here you can drive up to 93mph without getting a fine/points on the motorway.

I think generally most countries here have a speedlimit of around 130kmh (80mph), but people naturally will drive slightly above that to perhaps 85 to 90mph.

You simply can't drive a 50kwh battery here. You'd have a range charge of 110 miles...

Just some observations for your consideration. As I see it UK has 70 mph much like the US. Also UK has much higher speeding fines. Regardless you are correct that here like UK most people drive a few mph over the speed limit. I have made several long distance trips in my P85 (over 1000 Miles each ). For the most part on interstate at 75mph. I routinely average about 300 Wh/m which is the EPA range estimate even though I sometimes put my foot down just for the fun of it. My historical use for 60K miles is about 305. I have actually left home in 25F weather and exactly matched the EPA range without hypermiling although on secondary roads at about 60mph. One thing I never considered is the advantage in traffic. I was stuck in Atlanta traffic for 3 1/2 hours in a black car in July. Since the car does not run (except the AC and computer) when it is sitting still, I made it through Atlanta with great range when ICE cars all around me were running out of gas and overheating. My wife's 3 would be fine with the smaller battery since i normally only charge my S to 200 and have never had a problem with daily driving. The supercharging would be essential, however, if we use her car for trips. All in all range issues have become largely unimportant although I must admit I was concerned at first.

 

[DavidM]

If the base model includes supercharging and enough range to use it, then I'd get the base model. Otherwise, I might not be a buyer at all. I'm simply not willing to pay much more.

It's doubtful that the base Model 3 will have supercharging at $35K. Supercharging may be bundled with an upgraded battery option for an extra $10K. And having taken some road trips in my Model S, I'd say supercharger access is worth every penny.