36month lease over soon, my learnings/my plan...

[Trunk Gap]

Seeing some discussion about current MS owners on lease, and our interest to continue with the MS, which is basically the same as it was then....vs the significantly upgraded competition (as an example coming from an E63S, the 2019’s are much improved vs the 2014 I turned in back in 2016 to get the MS).

Honestly, after 30k/3yrs of driving this car, here are some truths for me if it helps anyone else:
- These cars are bulletproof. Rolling computer. Minor things here and there, no worse or better than any other car. I guess better bc no real maintenance. But generally has been a tank. Used market filled with amazing buys, blows my mind for 50k people can have this toy used. Amazing car, generally.
- I don’t need the speed in reality, I have a P90DL, I would have gotten the P100DL if it was available and almost traded when they announced it....glad I didn’t. I never use the speed other than parlor tricks. 100D is just fine, don’t need the extras, IMO, I’ll take the range over the extra power, it’s just not really anything most ppl would use
- Ah range. It’s a non issue. Simple - do you routinely drive more than 200 miles in one sitting? If so, EV’s maybe not for you. If not, stop pontificating and buy.
- Refresh > non refresh not even close folks come on
- My least favorite thing about the car is the quality of the seats/interior/chassis. Just basic. Screen is great sure, alcantara, etc but the “feel” of the car is cheap, it’s not solid like an AMG car or comparable. Also the ride can be kind of rough for what it is/should be

All around the best car I’ve owned. Have to say. Autopilot is mandatory, don’t want a daily driver without it. So for me, I’ll go check out the RS7, E63S, Panamera, I’m on the list like everyone else for a Taycan, and maybe one other, but really I can’t see myself not just getting another MS. However, I really, really, really hope there’s another refresh. I’d hate to lease the exact same car I have with a few minor upgrades (kind of defeats the purpose) but I don’t think that’s enough to hold me back from getting another MS or MX...there just isn’t anything comparable yet. Killer product, Tesla, just gimme more

 

[Tony8489]

I am coming up on 3 years also, different situation as our S90D has a loan with resale value guarantee option that Tesla dropped after June 2016.

Market value of Telsas has generally been higher than the resale guarantee but that's no longer true in the past few months.

I am very likely to turn our car in for that resale guarantee. Why? Rumors are rampant that Model S/X will get a battery upgrade of some form soon. That could be the Gigafacotry 2170's or enhanced chemistry 18650's. With v3 supercharging being rolled out at 2x the speed capability of current superchargers, it makes little sense for Model 3's to be able to take advantage of that but for more expensive Teslas not to be capable of faster charging. Our 2016 models are also Autopilot 1, and we are finally getting to the point that Autopilot 2/2.5/3 with the extra cameras and better sensors will have more capability than is possible with Autopilot 1.

Therefore we will probably turn in our 2016 and buy a new Tesla Model S once it gets the battery upgrade. I'm retired and we have 2 other cars, so we can afford to wait this out a while if necessary. The OP with his lease should consider a similar plan. I wouldn't want to lock in something else for 3 years; hopefully the OP can figure out some kind of stopgap. We might consider the P3D. We prefer the hatchback, more room and screens of Model S, but we plan to give the P3D a test drive.

 

[smilepak]

My least ended last year and I bought it afterward. I was more than 10k over mileage limit of the lease.

Driving experience is excellent. That cannot be compared with from any ICE vehicle. The fact of no gas and possibly of HOVnis a plus.

However, overall quality is a different matter. Little things add up. Broken door handle, 12v battery issue, poorly design pano roof causes a water leak, shutter wiper blades, etc.

Not to mention other people with problems with MCU, air suspension leak, body groove alignment, dash rattle, charge port issue, etc.

 

[suwaneedad]

That could be the Gigafacotry 2170's

Elon was clear during the earnings call a few weeks ago that the 2170s are not going to happen in S/X.
Presumably that means S/X will leapfrog the 2170 into whatever the next battery cell improvement is for Tesla.
Can't wait to see what that involves!!

 

[suwaneedad]

Seeing some discussion about current MS owners on lease, and our interest to continue with the MS, which is basically the same as it was then....vs the significantly upgraded competition (as an example coming from an E63S, the 2019’s are much improved vs the 2014 I turned in back in 2016 to get the MS).

Honestly, after 30k/3yrs of driving this car, here are some truths for me if it helps anyone else:
- These cars are bulletproof. Rolling computer. Minor things here and there, no worse or better than any other car. I guess better bc no real maintenance. But generally has been a tank. Used market filled with amazing buys, blows my mind for 50k people can have this toy used. Amazing car, generally.
- I don’t need the speed in reality, I have a P90DL, I would have gotten the P100DL if it was available and almost traded when they announced it....glad I didn’t. I never use the speed other than parlor tricks. 100D is just fine, don’t need the extras, IMO, I’ll take the range over the extra power, it’s just not really anything most ppl would use
- Ah range. It’s a non issue. Simple - do you routinely drive more than 200 miles in one sitting? If so, EV’s maybe not for you. If not, stop pontificating and buy.
- Refresh > non refresh not even close folks come on
- My least favorite thing about the car is the quality of the seats/interior/chassis. Just basic. Screen is great sure, alcantara, etc but the “feel” of the car is cheap, it’s not solid like an AMG car or comparable. Also the ride can be kind of rough for what it is/should be

All around the best car I’ve owned. Have to say. Autopilot is mandatory, don’t want a daily driver without it. So for me, I’ll go check out the RS7, E63S, Panamera, I’m on the list like everyone else for a Taycan, and maybe one other, but really I can’t see myself not just getting another MS. However, I really, really, really hope there’s another refresh. I’d hate to lease the exact same car I have with a few minor upgrades (kind of defeats the purpose) but I don’t think that’s enough to hold me back from getting another MS or MX...there just isn’t anything comparable yet. Killer product, Tesla, just gimme more

Gotta say, I had a 90D loaner a few months ago (unsure what year) and I was struck at how cheap the interior felt relative to the Model 3. On the one hand, this is great news since it means Tesla is getting better about such things. On the other hand, it doesn't bode well for resale values of older Teslas, and hopefully the new S/X's have better quality interiors than what I was loaned. Example: the center console piece that retracts to reveal cupholders or something (I don't remember) felt incredibly cheap to actually use/move, and it instantly made me grateful for my 2018 (again, I'm unsure whether interior items like this have been improved across the fleet since your 2016, or if just the Model 3's feel much better).

I can't see buying a new S right now. At least leasing one future-proofs you in that the lease concludes in 2-3 years so you won't be behind the latest for too long. By contrast, if I total my Model 3 tomorrow morning I will go buy another in the used market by lunch. Given how long Tesla hangs onto a design, and the current product roadmap, Model 3 won't see a refresh until beyond 2025.

It also makes sense to me that the market values of used S's (pre-AP 2.5) has started to materially soften. Your testimonial re TACC is part of this story: TACC/EAP/FSD is nothing short of a game changer and all other vehicles will feel like dinosaurs in short order, with many early Teslas already falling into that category.

 

[smilepak]

I agree with that. The constantly make tweak changes to the interior. It is hard to quantify the resale value. I got my 70D when it was announced to replace the 60 and less than 1 year of it being out, the decide to discontinue it. Not to mention adding center console and remove Alcantara, change seat material etc over the next 2 years afterwards.

 

[am_dmd]

It's great you didn't have any major issues but Tesla's are way overpriced and have serious fit/finish issues.
Like numerous threads in here when this tank gets into an accident be prepared to loose ~ 3- 6 months out of your lease.

 

[Trunk Gap]

I guess overpriced is relative. This car was 1.5x, roughly, the E63S in cost.
In value, it delivers 5x what the E63 did.

Bottom line for me - do I want improved fit/finish? Yes. Do I want Tesla to refresh the S ASAP so I can get a new toy vs a newer version of nearly the exact same car? Yes. Will anything, any downside at all, prevent me from getting another Tesla? Probably not. The M3 won’t work bc I prefer a hatchback for the dog. The X could work but not the best looking (again, I can get over it). If the Y is out, I’m in. I care less about nearly everything I used to care about with regards to cars (looks, speed, etc), the Tesla has converted me to caring more about functionality...and until there is another auto-driving, voice commanded, reasonably fast, 300+ mile range car that has a network of chargers and superchargers any and every time I need them, available with the same level of convenience (plug in and go) and consistency as a Tesla...to me there just isn’t another option besides buying another Tesla.

Having said that, come on refresh, come on MY.....but I just can’t see myself not having a Tesla.

 

[OrbiterTI4]

I do disagree with the OP on some points:

Bulletproof - A driver turned in front of me, causing a front collision at roughly 25 mph. Airbags deployed in this situation, which I didn't expect or need (seatbelts stopped my motion, and then the airbags went off), which added 2 months to repair time.

Range - You need to be in driving distance of a service center. For me, that's 50 mi one way, and I live in the same metro area! And the "safe" distance is never really safe...I once left a supercharger with 100% charge (270 rated mi), with a mileage of 190 mi to the next SC. Driving in non-windy conditions at the speed limit, we arrived with 4 rated miles remaining.

I bought my S85D on loan, so I do not anticipate getting rid of it (and probably can't since it has an airbag deployment on the carfax now), but if I had done a lease? Would have seriously considered it.

 

[Kruegmeister]

I do disagree with the OP on some points:

Bulletproof - A driver turned in front of me, causing a front collision at roughly 25 mph. Airbags deployed in this situation, which I didn't expect or need (seatbelts stopped my motion, and then the airbags went off), which added 2 months to repair time.

Range - You need to be in driving distance of a service center. For me, that's 50 mi one way, and I live in the same metro area! And the "safe" distance is never really safe...I once left a supercharger with 100% charge (270 rated mi), with a mileage of 190 mi to the next SC. Driving in non-windy conditions at the speed limit, we arrived with 4 rated miles remaining.

I bought my S85D on loan, so I do not anticipate getting rid of it (and probably can't since it has an airbag deployment on the carfax now), but if I had done a lease? Would have seriously considered it.

Range is Temp Dependent (Heat or A/C have a cost)
If its -4 I expect diminished range. Glad I went P100D over 75D. That extra Range comes in handy during extreme temps.
You can stop at Non SuperCharger EV chargers BTW. Just slower to charge.
That's why I think the Competition like the next best Chevy Bolt at 238 is a definite no go for me... I dont think a round tripin a Bolt or Leaf to the Airport would work for me in Winter without having to find an EV Lot. Right now on a 10 day trip and didn't even bother to find an EV spot, my Model S has the Range for it.

 

[MXWing]

Elon was clear during the earnings call a few weeks ago that the 2170s are not going to happen in S/X.
Presumably that means S/X will leapfrog the 2170 into whatever the next battery cell improvement is for Tesla.
Can't wait to see what that involves!!

Well... you can’t quite announce 2170 and Osborne out the existing S and X. This has to be kept secret no matter what happens.

 

[kgroschi]

Ughh I also don't know what to do with my lease that's ending in April. I want to keep the car but I am just not sure if it's financially smart. I do love my AP1, Sunroof, and Alcantara (and the old yacht floor center console). :/

 

[PhilDavid]

Ughh I also don't know what to do with my lease that's ending in April. I want to keep the car but I am just not sure if it's financially smart. I do love my AP1, Sunroof, and Alcantara (and the old yacht floor center console). :/

Maybe you can extend your lease until the refresh comes out?

 

[Trunk Gap]

That’s my plan most likely, you can extend up to 6 months I believe. Have to imagine something new is coming in CY2019, whether a refresh or other. If whatever is new is available when my lease is up, I’ll buy. If not, I’ll wait. Worst case though, I’d probably just lease another new one end of year if nothing else is out. Or maybe buy a used one and trade in as a stopgap when whatever new comes out comes out,

In terms of being close to a service center - sure, that’s a consideration. In my 3yrs and 30k I’ve driven, I’ve been to the service center maybe 5x? Twice to replace floor mats that weren’t sticking to the carpet, twice for an AC part that makes noise (and is happening again) and once to tighten up a door panel. Think that’s it. So what, maybe one or two times more/less than MB/BMW/etc? YMMV.

As for range - this is all in ppls heads. Yes, my 270 mile range in reality is 180-230 depending on how I drive, on temps, etc...lots of variables. Again, how many days in a year do I drive more than 180 miles in one sitting? On road trips. And I stop at superchargers as needed, and actually have found the SC stops to be refreshing in terms of my driving habits. I’m less rushed. I stop, walk the dog, grab a bite to eat, get some exercise....why the hurry? Just leave earlier and enjoy the present. The car has changed my perspective on these things.

 

[kgroschi]

Maybe you can extend your lease until the refresh comes out?

Ya that's true. I am considering extending it either waiting for a model refresh or looking for a unicorn 2016 Model S LCI, white with AP1 or AP2, and unlimited supercharging. There were only a few made I believe. But these leases should be up around the same time as mine since a few weeks after I picked my car up the model refresh came out. Under the skin mine is almost identical to the LCI actually. That even confused the guys at the SC. So I believe extending while looking for that unicorn or a model refresh is probably the safest bet for now.

 

[Tony8489]

Now we have some Model S upgrades so I think it's an easy call to exercise the buyback. The rated range upgrade to 370 plus faster charging is enough of an improvement for me to get a new Model S this summer.

There's also been a recent unexplained reduction in supercharging speed. Our Tesla travel is highly concentrated in the second quarter. Through last year my max charge rate was 105Kw. Now it's 93kW. This is not due to supercharger variability, as the car has been supercharged from a <30% SoC 8x this month at 5 different chargers and it's consistently at 93Kw.

 

[Trunk Gap]

I emailed Tesla via the email address they sent me re “any questions about your expiring lease?” A week back...no response. Asked them if they had any pull ahead programs, as I would just buy the new S now if they do. I’ll end up calling, chances that the email gets returned probably slim to none (just a fact of life re Cust Svc at Tesla right now).

 

[suwaneedad]

Now we have some Model S upgrades so I think it's an easy call to exercise the buyback. The rated range upgrade to 370 plus faster charging is enough of an improvement for me to get a new Model S this summer.

There's also been a recent unexplained reduction in supercharging speed. Our Tesla travel is highly concentrated in the second quarter. Through last year my max charge rate was 105Kw. Now it's 93kW. This is not due to supercharger variability, as the car has been supercharged from a <30% SoC 8x this month at 5 different chargers and it's consistently at 93Kw.

Agree (exercise the buyback). This is the behavior that Tesla recognized in its Q1 financials released last week when it said it was increasing its provisions for buybacks by something like $200 million. It was a big part of the loss they reported, so you're part of that mix.

 

[Tony8489]

I think most of the buyback losses come from cars coming off lease.

The buyback program applied only to cars sold up to June 2016 and financed through a couple of specific lenders. It did not apply to cash sales.

But the loss provision makes sense because the drop in resale value over the past 6 months or so is what created a liability for the 2016 buybacks and also put lease residual values below current market values.